I think the
Oregon@Boise game should be a good game to watch. Very rare to get a GREAT game the first game of the year (see FSU/Miami in Oct vs Sept).
If you like Boise State the spread is moving your way, so most people it seems would disagree with you. The first time I saw it was 5.5, and on the site I use they are at 4.5 right now. Since it's falling, people are taking the Ducks. If you think the Broncos will cover, you are getting a better deal now then a few days ago.
Oregon is going through a coaching change and replacing some guys up front. This is the key. Don't forget they rushed for 227 yards last year in a game they were behind 37-13. If Oregon is able to run the ball early and withstand the initial energy and emotional outburst that comes with a big home game, I think they will be in it the whole way, possibly win straight up.
The question is, if Boise jumps out front again, or stuffs their running game early, will they have the patience as they did under Bellotti, and continue to run the ball since it is a huge part of their offense.
I just don't see this game being a blowout unless one of the teams just really comes out hitting on all cylinders and the other flat on its face. Last year Alabama came out great and Clemson played flat and it set the tone for the rest of the year for both teams.
All said I expect a game where both teams score mid 20s to mid 30s. Personally I think Oregon covers, but not enough to bet them. I'm not betting this one. When I look at a game and I think, "Boise could win this easily. Oregon could win this easily" I tend to stay away (which is why the NFL is retarded to bet on, but oh so fun).