OK, so a lot of the mystery is gone now. But here's what I think will happen:
Rose (locked) Oregon v OSU
BCS (locked) Texas v Bama
1. Sugar will take Florida to replace Bama. First trip to Sugar Bowl for Florida since 2000. Unbelievable, right?
2. Fiesta will take Cincy to replace Texas. The future coach of ND, and a higher-rated BCS team is more interesting than the Horned Frogs, who have trouble selling out home games.
3. Orange Bowl (having Ga Tech locked in already) will take Penn State
4. Fiesta Bowl will take TCU, making a juicy matchup of undefeateds- though I could see something else happening because neither team I'm projecting here has a huge following.
5. Sugar will take Virginia Tech. They will generate more cash than Boise for the bowl. And that's what's FAIR to the Sugar Bowl and everyone else involved, it has nothing to do with how well a team can beat up on awful WAC competition.
Rose (locked) Oregon v OSU
BCS (locked) Texas v Bama
1. Sugar will take Florida to replace Bama. Pretty straight forward.
2. Fiesta will take TCU to replace Texas. I really think the regional manner of this game will make TCU the ideal choice. Why would the Fiesta take a team in Cincy that wouldn't bring more fans? Plus, TCU is higher ranked...
3. Orange Bowl (having Ga Tech locked in already) will take Iowa, not Penn State. Iowa beat Penn State, and they're ranked higher. I don't see the reasoning for Penn State over Iowa.
4. Fiesta Bowl will take Cincy over Boise State, creating that matchup of undefeateds that James mentioned.
5. Sugar will take Boise State. There is NO WAY they will take a three-loss VT over an undefeated Boise State. No way. Let me repeat. No way...no way
I've been going back and forth on the Cincy/Iowa/PSU thing, but still think those 2 are chosen above TCU. And I won't be surprised if Cincy passes TCU in the BCS today, as they've already been significantly ahead in the computers and in the human polls they have made up ground.
I picked PSU if it's the Orange Bowl that takes the 2nd Big Ten team, because of their recent history there. But Iowa is plausible.
And I think it's ridiculous if Boise State gets in. I'm sure there are undefeated HS teams out there, their doesn't entitle them to kill the Sugar Bowl's revenues.