** This thread discusses the Content article: College Basketball Rewind: 1-25-10 **

I dont understand the bid math concerning NM and UNLV.

If either wins their conference, BYU (UNLV case) or La Tech (NM case) could be in also, right?

We should chalk up the MWC and WAC as getting 2 bids.

We bubble-team supporters should root for them and the 7 "threat teams" in your "other conferences" breakdown.

Might as well throw the Pac-10 in there as well, because Cal is about the only team that could make a bid to earn an at-large out of that league. Go Bears?

New Mexico beat La Tech 81-52 this year all ready, and beat CAL too for that matter. Go LOBOS!

You should really give up doing this if you think Notre Dame, Arizona State, Florida, or Virginia Tech "should be in" over a BUNCH of teams from the "other" conferences.

Seriously- you are terrible.

Phil, please go ahead and give your counter-argument on the matter.

Also, I think I explained the Florida pick very well...

Ok, since you think Florida is such an easy include (and it certainly isn't the worst of the group- so I'll give you the homer selection because they do have the MSU win in their pocket which negates the gross home loss to South Alabama) let's start with your most egregious selection in Notre Dame.
* Their best win out of conference was IUPUI. IUPUI!!! and I'm not kidding! They have 1 road win, period, against a mediocre at best South Florida team. Take away the home win against West Virginia, and you have a dreadful resume.
* Next, Virginia Tech. They are the current kings of playing nobody. In their 3 games against tournament-level teams, they lost- Temple, FSU, and UNC... and UNC is a fringe player right now. They have a SOS of 224 despite playing 4 ACC games- which is downright embarrassing. They aren't even in the top 4 in their OWN STATE!
* Finally, Arizona State. You may not be a proponent of the RPI, but no team with an RPI of 82 coming out of the worst BCS conference ever should even be considered. Their best win OOC was home against an OK SDSU team who sits in the middle of the Mtn West. Outside of that they have no top 50 wins and are 4-3 in the said laughable Pac 10.

Maybe you should watch some basketball outside of the SEC. Again, if you think that only 2 teams outside of the BCS will get at-large bids, or are even worthy, you need to watch some more before spreading your drivel to the masses. La Tech, by the way, is not one of those teams as a "threat". Their 247 SOS (and not improving) with a best OOC win against Murray flippin' State won't be worth jack, even if they finish 25-5.

The A-10 and Colonial could account for 7 bids between the two of them including the two automatics. And you have a grand total of 2 in there (the autos). Good job!

Phil, you should chill with the insults man. I agree with the A-10 statement, but relax a bit. This is just someones take on the NCAA. Nothing to get bent out of shape over.

Phil, here's my counter-argument to your post:

a) Notre Dame - They are currently 15-5, with a 4-3 record in the Big East, which currently has them in 6th place. The Big East is by far the best conference is the nation. Now, looking at the rest of their schedule, it's brutal. They have very tough road games against Nova, Louisville, & Georgetown, as well as very tough home games against Pitt and UConn. If they can win ONE of those five games, and take 5 of 6 of the more manageable games at home against Cincy, USF, & St Johns and on the road against Rutgers, Seton Hall, and Marquette, they'll have finished 21-10 with a 9-7 record in conference (probably 7th or 8th place). That resume WILL get into the tourney.

b) Virginia Tech - As of right now (emphasis on right now), they have to be considered a team worthy of admission. Their three losses are understandable. Temple is a top 15 team, and two tough losses to conference opponents on the road is not the worst thing. Out of conference, they are 2-0 against Big Ten, 1-0 against the SEC, and 1-0 against the Big East. Although the four teams aren't the top teams from each conference, it's shouldn't be understated the importance of non-conference performance.

c) Arizona State - Although I clearly mentioned that it is certainly conceivable that the Pac-10 could only end up with one representative, I still can't believe that it will actually happen. At some point, there will be some separation within the conference, and at this juncture, you'd have to believe that Arizona State, along with California, is in position to finish in the top two of the conference.

d) I placed Louisiana Tech in the "threat" section, because they are in first place a traditionally stronger conference than your usual Cinderella team.

e) I don't think you understood that I see there being seven spots available for all of the bubble teams I've listed. It's quite possible that the A-10 and Colonial could fill multiple spots, but it's not clear this early on.

Thanks for the feedback, it's just my opinion.

Sorry. Don't mean to sound so harsh. I just get frustrated by the lack of respect given to teams like William & Mary or Rhode Island, who clearly have a much better resume than a crappy 9th place Big East school like Notre Dame... and I went to a Big East school.

I think the reason this doesn't jive with a projection of the entire field (like Lunardi, etc. are prone to do) is that Chris is doing some projection of the performance of some teams (like a Notre Dame, whose resume can improve much more significantly than, say, William & Mary's- whether or not you think it will improve is a matter of opinion at this point) in addition to looking at current resumes.

"Threat" generally means that if the team were to stumble in their conference tourney final, and miss out on the auto-bid, they'd have to be considered a bubble team. These teams are in a better position than some of the other bubble teams from "non-power conferences" (or whatever term we've agreed on this year).

also "should be in" doesn't mean "lock". Obviously anyone could pick up some awful losses, go on an extended losing streak, etc. and be excluded.

I think there should be a little more distinction between the "should be in" and "lock" category, but the fact that he's compiling the list in mid-to-late January means the word "lock" would be used loosely anyways.

If you follow the updates through the end of the season, you'll see that his method winds up very accurate.

So many people throw out 'win 2 games in the SEC tourney and the Gators are in!'-type exclamations at the end of the year, that it's important to look at the big picture like this and see that those 15 teams are fighting for 7 spots, or whatever the case may be.

And if you think this post was just an elaborate way of calling "no-jinxies" on Florida starting a new streak this March... you know me too well.

You obviously live under a rock down there in Florida. Im not even going to get into your picks, but the fact that you think that Siena, Cornell, and Old Dominion will not be considered threads in the tournament is absoluetely ridicoulous. Siena has won a first round game in each of the last two tournaments, they graduated one senior this year and currently having the longest winning streak in the nation, and second longest at home. Cornell nearly knocked off Kansas before falling apart late. Old Dominion is from a strong Colonial conference. I dont know if George Mason rings a bell in your head. You should really do some more research, one team from the A 10 is ridicoulous