** This thread discusses the Content article: Capital One Bowl Preview **

This is the second in a series of 10 detailed bowl previews.  They are the ten most interesting bowl games, according to me.  The Capital One Bowl was cooler when it was the Citrus Bowl.  Where’s the fun in saying “You can’t spell… uh, more than about 200 words with ‘Capital One’”?  This year’s game matches Georgia and Michigan State… one team who overachieved, and one team who underachieved.  Here was my intial take [i]“I’m actually sort of surprised more teams aren’t looking at hiring Mark Dantonio.  So in case someone comes to their senses before Jan. 1, there’s a storyline.  The bigger deal is how Stafford and Moreno close the season against a solid defensive team, and how that will effect their decisions to go pro.  I also want to see how good Javon Ringer really is.”  For more detailed analysis, and a prediction, continue reading below…

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This really could be the last game for Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno.  That could work one of two ways: they could be fighting to each be top 10 picks, or they could have already put the stamp on this one long ago.  Granted, Caleb King is supposed to be the second coming of Knowshon.  Or is that the 495th coming of Herschel?  So maybe the vaunted Georgia game gets going- fantastic offensive line coach Stacy Searles could certainly pull things together with the extra practice time (and that line was decimated this year.)  AJ Green could be trying to use this game for more national attention, after claiming the SEC Freshman of the Year Award. So there are a couple possibilities: Georgia coach Mark Richt ‘circles the wagons’, and gets his guys to build some more momentum for next year (including possibly convincing his guys to come back); the disappointment of this season, coupled with the NFL going to a rookie salary cap in 2010, mean an exodus to the NFL, and guys looking out for themselves over ‘team’. There’s also the chance that making an impression for the NFL inspires these guys to play harder and play well, but I don’t like it when I see two out of three of the scenarios involving selfish goals over  team goals. This game could tell a lot about just how good of a coach Mark Richt is, if he can regain the momentum he’s lost this year, and get his six All-SEC freshman ready to contend for SEC and National Titles next year.[/quote]
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Mark Dantonio is a great coach. With most of the coaching vacancies filled, I don’t think he’s going anywhere this year. If, sometime after this writing, that happens, that could change my opinion immensely. But I think, despite the Penn State loss, Michigan State has a great deal of momentum heading into the game. They are set up to contend for the Big Ten title (world’s tallest midget, I know), and should be very excited to play in this game. Javon Ringer has already stated that he wants to go out on a perfect game, and if Georgia isn’t fired up and ready to go, it is a possibility.[/quote]
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Emotion and program momentum are always huge storylines which go a long way toward determining the outcomes of bowl games.  Look at last year’s Capital One Bowl- Michigan’s being told they were going to blown out, coupled with Lloyd Carr’s last game, meant they were able to spring the upset. With that in mind, I think the emotional variables are all lining up in Michigan State’s favor, and expect the outcome to be in favor of the Spartans, 24 -16.[/quote]
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The 495th coming of Herschel, fo sure.

Actually, this post gives no analysis actually pertaining to the game at all. NONE. Just a bunch of subjective opinions on the coaches and players involved. Care to actually give a REASON that you are going so far against the 7 1/2 point Georgia spread, other than "emotion and program momentum"?

No, I actually believe that emotion is the main deciding factors in bowl games, and do quite well every year picking games based on 'who is more excited to be there' and 'is the coach leaving for a different job'.

How else to explain Michigan over UF, West Virginia over OU (the excitement thing, not the coach thing, I got it wrong), Boise State over OU, and West Virginia over Georgia, for that matter? One of the most glaring examples didn't even go my way, though with the points I would have gotten it correct. 2006 MPC Computers Bowl, Nevada loses to Miami 21-20, I believe it was even last minute FG situation. Nevada, a terrible program, was 'much more excited' to be in Boise than a Miami team going through a coaching change. Most of these games are decided by these factors, and rather than guess which ones will not, I generally err on the side of emotion. I always place pretty well in my bowl pick'ems,

I do think Georgia is an excellent team, and there is good reason they are favored. But bowl games are very different animals than regular season games, a reason I don't think they are always the best indicator of conference strength. The bowl games where each team has similar motivations, etc to maintain their focus on the game for the 30+ days of preparation are very few, indeed. This is a game where I am worried that Georgia may be lacking some focus, and if that happens, they will get beat, or at least get more of a game than they bargained for. Now, if Stafford and co. are coming back, and get some kind of super-focus on obtaining next year all the goals that they fell short of this year... then Georgia could come out and beat the Spartans by a very siginifcant margin. As of now, though, I am predicting that won't happen, and those guys will be top 10 NFL picks next year. The NFL thing I think is a bigger deal this year because someone is going to advise these kids that this is about to be the last draft without a rookie salary cap.

Ideally, I could write each of these the day before each game and take everything into account, but I will not be around for most of the bowl season, and am predicting these games very, very early. Picking games later would also help in that I'd know who gets to their bowl site and parties too late and misses part or all of the game, etc due to suspension. Not saying that happens in this particular bowl, but it will happen in a couple.

All that being said, I did note that I think Mark Richt is a good coach, and if he gets his team to play with an intensity that I think their opponent will bring, then they cruise easily. But then, I don't need to write blogs picking all the games by their USA today point spreads... I'm trying to give a different take. I could easily see many different things happening, and think Georgia is the superior team (that's why they are favored), but I'm placing my bet with the letdown bowl game. And setting my DVR to see how scared I should be at the cocktail party next year.

Hey guys,

I created the pick'em league now. So feel free to pick against me, but you can't say I didn't warn you!
http://gatorsfirst.com/index.php/college-football/official-gatorsfirstcom-bowl-pick-em-league.html

"This is a game where I am worried that Georgia may be lacking some focus, and if that happens, they will get beat, or at least get more of a game than they bargained for."

Nah, this is a game that you are HOPING that Georgia lacks some focus, because you're a Gator fan, and despite your team's exceptional season this year, you obviously would like Georgia's season to end comparative to UF's 9-4 season last year, a season that ended with a defeat in the same bowl to the same Michigan team that lost to App State.

Everything about your "prediction" is subjective and biased, and backtreading and paying UGA/Richt some generalized compliments doesn't change that fact.

The idea that Georgia won't play well because Stafford/Moreno likely won't return is completely idiotic; if anything, they'll want to look at their best pre-draft. You probably think that Stafford has no "loyalty" to the program, being from Texas, and don't realize his father is a UGA alumni, and his sister is also enrolled in Athens, a semester behind Matt.

This "analysis" is heavily biased garbage, pure and simple, and shows no knowledge of either team involved. You're entitled to your opinion, but don't label it as a preview; you previewed NOTHING but your own fantasies of how you'd like this game to go.

Actually, I'd rather the SEC quit giving the Big Ten fodder for their arguments by losing these lower-level bowl games. If what I wanted to happen, happened, the SEC would sweep it's bowl games, Hawaii and Miami and FSU would win (for our strength of schedule), and Notre Dame would cancel their football program. Oh yeah, youtube sensation Sam McGuffie would also transfer to Florida. That guy's HS highlights are sick.

As far as the 'impressing the NFL' thing:
Darren McFadden and Felix Jones were not the star of last year's Cotton Bowl, despite 'wanting to enhance their stock': Tony Temple was. I think the TEAM who is more focused wins out in many of these games. Michigan last year was more motivated than our immature, young defense. We were a better team.

This year, Georgia is a better team than Michigan State. But their season began with so much promise, I don't think there's any way they'll be fired up for the Capital One Bowl. I could be wrong, and if I am, hand it to Mark Richt, as it's another notch in his belt for doing a good job motivating his players. I just think they could be walking into a dangerous situation, and so I'm picking Michigan State.

I really think Stafford and Moreno are gone. This NFL rookie cap coming in 2010 means anyone, I think, who is on the fence this year, and will be a 1st rounder, is gone. That means Harvin and Spikes, too, not just Stafford and Moreno.

About me wanting Stafford to go... I actually don't mind him. Thanks for the interceptions, they helped us put the game away. How he's going to be a top 5 pick is beyond me (I'm no NFL expert, or even that much of a fan), but he will be, and so he should go. That backup QB was the one who lead Georgia's only TD drive, maybe I should be worried about him returning for his senior year?

Your analysis of the bowl games simply sucks. False advertising.

I guess we'll see when it's show time how well the analyses hold up.

Testdrive wrote:

QUOTE:
Your analysis of the bowl games simply sucks. False advertising.

Hey Testdrive: If you don't like it, come over to the Emerald Bowl preview. You can chime in, get tomatoes thrown at you, and blast back.

Testdrive wrote:

QUOTE:
False advertising.

Which one of us advertised? That sounds like it would cost money, and this is a half-assed operation. We're only interested in bringing up interesting sports arguments, and making picks against each other. With that in mind 'put up or shut up', compete against us in the bowl picks! you, too, can call yourself an 'expert'!

MSU fan here living in Georgia. First let me say I am not surprised to see the UGA fan cry that his team was not picked to win on a Gator website. Just like them to cry for respect on a rivals website. Second nothing would make my year better than to see MSU beat Michigan and Georgia in the same year, two of the most overrated programs in college football (Notre Dame being #1). But the only chance MSU has is the emotional angle, them always being the underdogs and UGA blowing their season and pouting their way to the Capital one Bowl. IF this is anywhere near the 7 1/2 points MSU can be happy with their season, because that would be like butterbean finishing 3 second behind T.O in the 100 yard dash. MSU's players are no where near the quality of UGA.

Hep - your MSU Spartans lost the opener to Cal. Any thoughts about the Golden Bears? You're invited to come on over to the Emerald Bowl Preview and share a few thoughts..................
http://gatorsfirst.com/index.php/4-college-football/918-emerald-bowl-preview.html

So far, the 2008 Great Drunken Emerald Bowl Debate (Cal vs Miami) has generated over 280 comments on this Gator Site. In fact, Miami is getting alot of respect on this site dedicated to their instate rival.

Ya, pretty funny that the Miami thread is out most popular.

I don't know that I would consider Miami our rival though, unless you want to consider most of our schedule rivals. There are a good 4 or 5 teams that would go above Miami in the UF rival category.

"Capital One Bowl Preview
Dec 19 2008 22:46:21
MSU fan here living in Georgia. First let me say I am not surprised to see the UGA fan cry that his team was not picked to win on a Gator website. Just like them to cry for respect on a rivals website. "

Hep - You sound like a complete idiot - this guy came on the GEORGIA ESPN Board, created a new topic, and posted the link to the drivel; not the other way around. He invited the Georgia fans on that board to his "preview". Get your facts straight before you run your mouth.

dawg_nation, you seems a bit upset...

edited by maverick

Even though you can hate Georgia, please don't act like an idiot on our message boards...