** This thread discusses the Content article: Emerald Bowl Preview **

This is the third in a series of ten bowl previews. This game, which pairs the Miami Hurricanes and the Cal Bears (or, California Golden Bears, if you’re not into the whole brevity thing) is not getting as much attention from similar national rankings of this year’s bowl games. Here is the quick comment I made in the ranking blog, “Not sure why, but this one actually has me pretty interested.  I think this game could have a major impact on next year’s preseason rankings.  Randy Shannon getting the extra time to practice with his young talent (and to whine to the media about Urban Meyer) is also a very big storyline.” Here is a more detailed analysis, and a game score prediction…

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I am a little worried that Miami is about to capitalize on a down ACC, and begin keeping all of the south Florida recruits away from the Gators. This game could have huge implications, as a big Hurricane victory could put Miami in the preseason ACC title discussion, as well as assure them a preseason ranking in the polls. With all the young talent Randy Shannon has been bringing in, an extra month of practice should provide a great benefit. Miami seemed to put it all together late in the season, until Georgia Tech sort of derailed their momentum. A lot of what I will be watching for in this game is how the young guys respond to that late-season disappointment, and how well Randy Shannon rallies them for an upper-tier Pac-10 team. The defensive front seven that played well in the Swamp in September will have its collective hands full trying to contain Cal RB Jahvid Best, and Draddy Award winning C Alex Mack (presumably, he doesn’t have a secret world) will be leading the charge for Cal’s offensive line.[/quote]
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Cal is pretty much playing a home game, as they don’t have to leave the San Francisco Bay area. Not that they are known for having a wild fan base. Unless you count that some of their schools supporters like to sleep in the wild, living in trees near the stadium until recently. They also have pretty good team speed, so they should match up better than most with a team like Miami, which definitely has outstanding team speed. This has been an up-and-down year for Jeff Tedford’s guys, and they’ll also be looking to build momentum for next year. A lot of the up and down nature is either the cause (or the effect) of the QB’s performance. The good news is Miami’s front seven, while they looked good in passing situations against Florida, was not very good against the run. Jahvid Best could have a very good game, if he comes ready to play. Whether Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley end up getting most of the snaps shouldn’t really matter, as neither has been particularly good, and Miami’s strength lies in getting to the quarterback.[/quote]
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Georgia Tech’s offense is different than Cal’s, but they definitely showed Miami has a problem stopping the run. If this problem isn’t corrected by game time, watch out! That being said, bowl games usually end up being less about matchups or perceived conference strength, than they are about emotion and momentum. Cal’s QB situation and the opportunity for Miami to catapult itself to the next level are advantages to the Hurricanes. I just think Tedford’s boys will be complacent playing this game in their own backyard, and expect Miami to make a statement. So I’ll take Miami, 21-10.[/quote]
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I’ll take Miami, 21-20

The U Rulez! I'll take Miami 134-2. 5 Natoinal Championchipz!

Haha. Well if Cal gets stomped, at least their the sad ride home won't be a far one. What are the odds on the 132 point spread for 134-2?

Excellent Secret World of Alex Mack reference

I think you overlooked a few factors:

1. Cal's scoring ability. The Bears average over 33 points per game and were held under 10 points only once by the nation's best defense (USC).
2. Miami's scoring defense. The Canes surrender over 24 points per game, and 79 in their last two games. They've held only two opponents to 10 points or less - Charleston Southern and Wake Forest, the #97 scoring offense.
3. Cal's bowl game record. The Bears are 4-1 in bowl games under Coach Tedford.
4. Cal's defense. You made no mention of Cal's defense in your analysis, the Bears' real strength this year. The Bears are #2 nationally in red zone D, #3 in INTs and 4th down conversion D, #4 in turnovers, #5 in pass efficiency D, and #9 in 3rd down conversion D. Their 3-4 set is Steeler-like in its ability to execute multiple blitz packages. The OLBs have CB-like speed from sideline to sideline, and their ability to generate turnovers creates short-field scoring opportunities.
5. Cal's schedule. 2-2 versus top 25 teams, and 7 bowl-bound opponents. This is not as weak a schedule as most Pac-10 haters would assume.

My prediction: Cal 38, Miami 24 in "The Best Fest." The Canes get burned early through the air while stacking the box to stop the run, and the Bears capitalize on 3 Miami TOs to extend the lead. MVP Best gains at least 150 yds and backup Vereen gets at least 75.

Good luck, Canes, but GO BEARS! (who, by the way, also have 5 football national championships)

Dear Cal Defender:
1) It's easy to average over 33 points a game when you play in the soft Pac-10.
2) Stats don't tell the full story. The U plays in the tough ACC. You know, that conference with Maryland that handed you your lunch. (Or should I say breakfast, 'cause all you did was whine about the early kickoff!)
3) 4-1 proves that you are capable of losing bowl games. Remember that defeat to TT?!? The Bears came out with now spark..............which is what's going to happen in SF. Face it, your team doesn't want to be there!
4) Pretty easy to pad your defensive stats, when you play WSU and Washington...........
5) Against the 7 bowl opponents your bears weren't very golden, going 3-4 (2-4 against bowl opponents that finished 7-5 or better). That tells me the odds are with the 7-5 bowl bound Miami Hurricanes. The U will cane the bears! 37-24!!

In Florida, we debate UF vs Miami vs FSU. We also debate SEC vs ACC. But there's no point discussing, let alone debating, Cal vs Miami or ACC vs PAC 10. Schools and conferences from Florida play real football. FACT: Cal and the PAC 10 ain't got a chance vs The Canes and the ACC.

Ya man, it is tough to compare conferences, but that is what makes bowl game trash talking so much fun.

The entire premise is that I think Miami's defense puts it all together. 10 points may be pretty low, but I think it's possible if Miami steps up the way I am predicting.

I'd rather have Miami stay down, but I think this is their opportunity to seize the moment and show they are on their way back.

Hey guys, for those who disagree, and those who don't...

this is your chance to prove to all of us how much you know!
http://gatorsfirst.com/index.php/college-football/official-gatorsfirstcom-bowl-pick-em-league.html

Gators Last! Now that I've said that, I agree with Viking. When Cal gets crushed, at least they'll have a short bus ride home. Go Cry in the Bay Berkeley! Cause the Miami Hurricanes have speed you've never seen, and won't be able to touch!

I concur with the "goose". Cal will take UM too lightly. Miami's defense has at times underachieved, yet also is vastly underrated. The Miami defense will "put it all together" in the Emerald Bowl. Miami will "seize the moment". Miami IS "on their way back". The 2009 season starts on 12/27/08 when the Hurricanes rout the lowly bears. On my way to SF, I'm transferring in Vegas. You bet I'll take Miami and the points. But I won't need the points, when I cash my winning ticket on my return flight. MIAMI: 30 cal: 17

Gator Hater wrote:

QUOTE:
Cause the Miami Hurricanes have speed you've never seen, and won't be able to touch!

I think Cal has pretty good team speed, as does USC, who they play. I can't say it's 'speed they've never seen'...

part of the reason I like this game in my top 10 is because both teams have good team speed.

Hey, The South Will Rise, Florida Football, viking, and all of you who know little or nothing about the Bears (or probably much about college football outside the state of Florida), perhaps you haven't looked in the Miami mirror. Just how strong are this year's Canes? Let's look at their 7-5 record in the 'mighty' ACC:

1. Miami played against only 3 top-25 teams, limping in at 1-2, and managed a 2-5 record against bowl-bound teams (winning by 6 and 2 points, respectively)
2. The Canes managed only 2 wins against FBS teams with winning records, VA Tech and woeful 7-5 Wake Forest with the nation's #97 offense
3. The other 5 wins come against real powerhouses: Charleston Southern (FCS), Texas A&M (4-8), UCF (4-8), Duke (4-8), and UVA (5-7)

Bottom line: the Canes, much like most of the ACC, is not that tough. Their schedule proves nothing, and your posts demonstrate your complete lack of knowledge of the opponent they face. I love watching you folks turn a blind eye to facts and pound your chests now that Miami has a winning record, albeit a flimsy one. You assume that the weaknesses in Miami's game don't matter when playing any Pac-10 team other than USC. Ahh, the false sense of security - first sign of the downfall.

If you want to continue living in Fantasyland, that's cool. You can always travel 400 miles south and visit the original before flying Excuses Airlines back to Florida. Hey, goose, you seem like an honest broker; maybe you ought to square Goose Too away before he lays down that bet.

Hey drrover, what is that Dr. Rover?!? Are you a vet??? Because you sure ain't a credible handicapper. Whether or not you're a doctor, you sure need one..............A PSYCHIATRIST. Cause you're delusional. And if not demented, then very forgetful. Cause you keep forgetting 9/13/08 SCOREBOARD: Maryland = 35 Cal = 27. And if you watched the game, then you know it wasn't as close as the final score. Remember that game? Cal's supposedly great running back, Jahvid Best, got hit so hard by the Terrapin defense that when he was laid out on the turf he vomited. Here's a fact: Miami's D hits much harder than Maryland's. For Best, the Emerald Bowl will be Vomit Bowl II, aka: regurgitation. Just the thought of lining up against Miami is probably making the entire Cal team queazy in the stomach.

Reading some of the arguments in favor of Cal leaves me LOL! Let's face it: Miami represents real college football with a rich tradition. Cal? Nothing close! I read on the Emerald Bowl Web site that Cal's starting center won the Academic Heisman. THE WHAT? Hey Cal fan, you got any REAL HEISMANS in your trophy case?!? If you want to see what the real deal looks like, come to THE U where you'll find Testaverde's and Torretta's Trophies! And drrover - when did Cal last win one of those 5 National Championships you claim?!? The Hurricanes won 5 from 1983 to 2001. So The South Will Rise is right on the money. Cal Fan is delusional. Cal Fan is living in the distant past, since Wikipedia lists Cal's last football national championship as 1937 (and btw, dating back to 1916 only lists 2 NCs as being won by Cal). So Cal Fan will see the Bears collapse under the tradition rich and proud Miami team. FINAL SCORE: Bears = 13, Hurricanes = 32. Hey Goose Too - Bet the Canes straight up, you can take that to the bank.

btw - drrover
Thanks for posting: Good luck, Canes................

But luck won't be needed by the better prepared and athletically more talented Canes.

Ahhh, chest pounding without any substance.

I expose Miami's 7-5 record for what it really is, and this is the best you (collectively) can do?

1-2 v. top-25 teams - "We have more Heisman Trophy winners and national championships from '83-'01!" How about this year? Ahhh, 0 Heisman candidates, 0 national championships, 0 first team ACC players, and a 7-5 record. Wow, you got me there.

2-5 v. bowl-bound teams - "Remember Maryland?" Yeah, I can remember back to the 3d game of the season. Can you remember back to the Canes' last two games? Try again.

2 wins v. teams with winning records - "Miami's better prepared and more athletically talented!" How did that preparation and athletic talent do for them this year? Oh, yeah, 7-5, 2-5 v. bowl teams, and 0 ACC first-team players. Good one.

5 wins v. sub-.500 + 1 FCS team - "You're delusional!" Well, actually, the facts speak for themselves. The only quality win the Canes have is against VA Tech. Really, scheduling FCS teams? That's sad.

Anyone else? I'll be around if any of you have anything of substance for me. Good luck, Canes, but GO BEARS!!!

Hey drrover: STOP repeating your same Fantasyland post and cluttering up the comments. We all know how to read a thread, except perhaps you.

Regarding your bogus arguments, I've already pointed out that your team is 2-4 against Bowl Teams that are 7-5 or better. And that is what Miami is, 7-5, no matter what you do to pick apart their schedule. So one has to like Miami's odds in this game. Goose does, whom you call an honest broker.

In your defense of Cal, I think you protest too much. Perhaps you don't like the obvious that is being pointed out to you. It appears to me that much of these posts are knowledgeable, pointing out quite a bit about the Bears, their history, their record, their opponents, and their inability to not choke (or should I say vomit) when playing against the ACC.

Here Rover - I'll throw you a bone. You have convinced me that the score will no longer be 37-24. I now predict 37-27, Miami! The Bears will still roll over, Rover, like a dog!

What's wrong with using the third game of the season to compare? Nothing! Unless you want to forget the results: Maryland over Cal = ACC over Pac-10.

Since we all seem to agree that Miami's 16 - 14 win over the ACC Conference Champions (Orange Bowl bound V-tech) was a good win, let's use it to further analyze Cal's chances vs The U.

The ACC's Miami beat V-tech, who beat Nebraska, who beat New Mexico State, who beat Nevada, who beat LA-tech, who beat Miss St, who beat Vandy, who beat Auburn, who beat Southern Miss, who beat East Carolina, who beat Tulsa, who beat New Mexico, who beat the Pac-10's Arizona, who beat Cal. So it's quite clear that Miami can and will beat Cal.

drrover - too complicated for you to follow? Then I'll simplify it for you. Miami beat V-tech, who beat Maryland, who beat Cal.

No wonder drrover wants to ignore the third game of the season. Cause no matter how you slice and dice it, Cal and the Pac-10 look inferior.

Hey drrover, doesn't Cal's Coach Tedford say "every game counts"?!?!? In other words, that poor showing against the ACC counts. Face it, when it came to Pac-10 vs ACC your team did not represent! So why should Goose or anyone else believe that your team will suddenly show up when it's Pac-10 vs ACC in the Emerald Bowl?

Like The South Will Rise, you've convinced me to adjust my prediction. I now agree with Chris Canada: 134-2! There's not enough luck in the world to bail out the Bears in this matchup. GO CANES!

Fair & Balanced wrote:

QUOTE:
Reading some of the arguments in favor of Cal leaves me LOL! Let's face it: Miami represents real college football with a rich tradition.

Thug U does have a rich tradition. A rich tradition of scandals and probation. By the way, which of these two teams plays in a college stadium on their own campus?

Well, I have to say I discounted the Maryland thing a little bit. Playing a road game like that is a different animal than a bowl game with a month to prepare.

I think both are great teams, and would love to watch it. That being said, it's football, there's a winner and a loser, and I wanted to go out on a limb and say Miami will seize this opportunity to begin to reclaim what they feel is their 'rightful' place in college football.

Here's a Miami Herald article on Miami beginning its bowl preparations.

Hey Finkster - there's nothing wrong with having an off site facility. It works out quite well for tradition rich USC - the Pac 10 Champs. Once again, this season, Cal failed to beat USC. USC won the conference and again is BCS bowl bound. So I must salute The U for being able to beat their BCS bound conference champs: The Hokies of Virginia Tech.

And Finkster, if you're backing the Bears, be careful playing the scandal card. Why did Tedford's first team finish 7-5 and not go to a bowl game? Because Cal was on probation by the NCAA. With cheating, Cal was able to go 1-10 in 2001. Hate to think what Cal's record would have been if they hadn't cheated, 0-11? The Bears will always be SC's stepchild. And now the Bears will also become the ACC's stepchild. Come get your beating, stepchild. Miami: 27 Cal: 17

Trojan, don't get me wrong, I'm not backing the Bears. I couldn't care less about the result about this game except for the amount of boasting I will hear afterward from somehow-still-cocky UM fans. I'm sure the Coliseum works out great for USC, but the Hurricanes now play in Dolphin stadium, which is 30 minutes away (at least, depending on traffic) from UM's campus, and is no place for college football.

Two posts piqued my interest...

Fair & Balanced wrote:

QUOTE:
The ACC's Miami beat V-tech, who beat Nebraska, who beat New Mexico State, who beat Nevada, who beat LA-tech, who beat Miss St, who beat Vandy, who beat Auburn, who beat Southern Miss, who beat East Carolina, who beat Tulsa, who beat New Mexico, who beat the Pac-10's Arizona, who beat Cal. So it's quite clear that Miami can and will beat Cal.

drrover - too complicated for you to follow? Then I'll simplify it for you. Miami beat V-tech, who beat Maryland, who beat Cal.

Trojan Man wrote:

QUOTE:
Hey Finkster - there's nothing wrong with having an off site facility. It works out quite well for tradition rich USC - the Pac 10 Champs.

Firstly, "Fair & Balanced" had an extremely funny post. I didn't know it was that easy to explain the chain of loses! Highest of high comedy.

And Secondly, Trojan Man makes a pretty invalid comment. The Coliseum is right across the street from your campus. It's literally right there. The Canes have been play off campus for years. The Orange Bowl was a good 5 miles away from campus, and now they are playing at Dolphins Stadium (always Joe Robbie in my eyes) which is a good drive away.

Now is that a disadvantage? I don't really think so, primarily because most of the Miami fan never attended the school, they are just locals. Therefore, the fans will still show up.

We all know that Florida beat Miami at home 26-3. In reality, it was the closest regular season game that Florida had to play (save Ole Miss). They have some good wins, including Virginia Tech and Wake Forest.

Cal has two good wins: Michigan State and Oregon. However, I've noticed that they were 1-4 on the road, which includes a win over hapless Washington State.

Both of these teams have similarly average passing games, but Cal has a better running game, and Miami hasn't been able to stop the run lately. I think this is what the game hinges on. Miami is traveling a long distance, and Cal is playing in their back yard.

It pains me to say this (growing up a diehard Miami fan), but I think a lot of things work in Cal's favor. I think it'll be close, but Cal wins 24-21.

maverick wrote:

QUOTE:
It pains me to say this (growing up a diehard Miami fan), but I think a lot of things work in Cal's favor. I think it'll be close, but Cal wins 24-21.

Wow, that's a lot different than your previous prediction of 135-2 or whatever it was. lol

Heh, that wasn't me...ass

Since the experts favor Cal by 7, I interpret Maverick's comments thusly: CAL IS OVERRATED and Goose Too should remain confident in his Vegas wager!

Given Cal finished below, in the rankings, the Michigan State and Oregon teams they beat at home...............perhaps Cal gets up for the big home games and otherwise is a mediocre team that plays mediocre football outside of their home stadium.

The young Miami team will benefit from the time off, and will becomed recharged and refocused after losing their last two. The Miami team that will show up in SF is the one that gave Florida a battle and beat Virginia Tech. The Miami team that will show up has been tested by ACC play. The ACC is sending 10 teams to bowls. By contrast the Cal team that shows up comes from the soft Pac 10 that only filled 5 of their 7 bowl obligations. The Cal team that shows up has not been tested in their absurdly weak conference (ie: weaker than the Mountain West/NON-BCS conference). The Cal team that shows up hasn't been tested in weeks, finishing their season against Stanford and Washington. The Cal team will get punched in the mouth, by the physical play of Miami/the ACC, and won't be able to respond. Southern Football is Florida/Miami Football, which is real football. California Football is powderpuff football. Diehard Miami fans know this and need not worry! There is no way Miami loses this game.

What's with all these comments? What are we talking about!?! The Emerald Bowl! We're talking about the Emerald Bowl?!? We'd be better off talking about PRACTICE!

Look - both teams couldn't carry the jock strap of their BCS bound conference champions: Virginia Tech and USC. But Miami does have scoreboard over the Hokies. Cal can only dream of having scoreboard over the Trojans. So bottom line: Miami will win the Emerald Bowl and the ACC will have bragging rights over all the Pac-10 except USC (which knew how to take care of business vs Virginia!)

......and here's what pains me to say (growing up a diehard USC fan), the Pac 10 is soft and it worked against USC. A victory over the weak Cal Bears did nothing for USC in the Coaches Poll/Harris Poll/Computer Polls/BSC rankings.

Randy Shannon - call Pete Carroll. He can tell you how to best use your athletes on defense to stop Jahvid Best and Cal's rushing attack. Against USC, Cal had 26 rushing attempts for a net 27 yards. (Best carried 13 times for 37 yards.)

Bottom Line: Canes will win. No contest!

Trojan Man gets it. Like USC, Miami has ATHLETES who will beat on the academic heisman and other Cal students masquerading as football players.

The Hurricanes will win BIG!

drrover is off based for dismissing the above posts. It is not merely chest pounding. There is real substance and good knowledge being shared.

To be honest, prior to stumbling onto this blog, I had zero interest in the Emerald Bowl - because I had zero insight into the matchup.

But based on the above discussions, I am now armed with facts. I now feel knowledgeable enough to make an informed statement and prediction.

Miami: 33
Cal: 23

PS - Don't think it doesn't pain me to pick Miami, who got one of their championships at the expense of my beloved Huskers' decision to go for two and the win, instead of one and the title.

PPS - Thank you Goose for triggering this highly informative discussion of the Emerald Bowl match-up.

Thanks for the Miami Herald link, regarding The U's bowl preparation. I'm with you, Fink. I'd rather avoid UM's boasting. I'm also with you, Goose. I'd rather have Miami stay dow. But like you I also think The U will seize the moment and show they are on the way back. Especially after reading they are emphasizing stopping the run, which per Trojan's Man report can be done. Wanting Cal to win, doesn't mean I can objectively predict they will win. So begrudginly I forecast: Miami 13 and Cal 10. Sadly, Cal is not capable of proving me wrong.

We have heard all this talk about the possibility of Urban going to Notre Dame, maybe for the challenge? A man with his personality is always striving for the next challenge. I think if Miami wins, they could be on the verge of breaking onto the national scene, which would make Florida's recruiting challenge a bit more real. My belief is that Urban would thrive on that opportunity, thus making him want to stay around a bit longer.

PS- It might be a stretch, but I hope everyone kinda sees where I was going with this argument, heh

I wouldn't root for Miami, to increase the in-state challenge for Urban. If Miami romps Cal, as anticipated by all and expected by many, then Urban will see Cal as an extremely "challenged" team. Urban's personality might then have him bolt to Berkeley, recognizing that winning the weak Pac 10 is much easier than competing in the ultra difficult SEC. GO GATORS!

Husker, it's actually two. Let's not forget 2001. =)~. Sorry to bring that up.


What drrover fails to realize is that Miami only lost one game to a team that does not run thier quarterback and that was UNC (should've won that game but horrible offensive play calling killed it in the end). If he thinks that a one dimensional team is going to beat Miami, he has another thing coming.

BTW drrove, how was your qb play this year?

CanesAllTheWay, it's actually three. 1983, 1991, and 2001. They did get Miami back in 1994 though...

Everyone check out the Emerald Bowl website.
http://emeraldbowl.cstv.com/

On the site, the fan poll question is Who Will Win the 2008 Emerald Bowl?

As of right now, the Canes are getting 78% of the votes (326-91). Perhaps the 134-2 spread is about right!

So clearly it is not just this blog site that sees things favoring The U.

Those in the know understand that Cal is overmatched against Miami. "Canes All The Way" says it all!

Nice walk down memory lane, with the Canes vs Huskers National Championship tally.

Can't wait for drrover to chime in with. "Hey fellas, don't forget about Cal. Cal beat Ohio State in the Rose Bowl to win the 1920 National Championship and Cal beat Alabama in the Rose Bowl to win the 1937 National Championship. Come on fellas, generations ago Cal really won the Rose Bowl and national championships. Come on fellas, respect the Bears. After all, Cal did finish 4th in the Pac10 this year."

drrover - you first brought up Cal's past football glory, if you can even call it that. So it is only fair that we recall the UM vs Cal series history:
The Canes lead 2-1, winning in 1989 and 1990. Don't know how, but the Berkeley hippies beat Miami in 1964. The Canes were probably overcome by the mary-jane aroma coming from the Berkeley locker room.

History will repeat itself on December 27th. The stadium may be full of Grateful Ted-Heads, cheering on Coach Tedford and the Bears. But similar to past encounters, the final score will favor the Canes.

Hmmm...it's too bad for Miami fans that traditions won't be taking the field in ATT park. Football teams will.

The professional handicappers have Cal +7. Cal is 9-3 against the spread this season. This is essentially a Cal home game, and if memory serves me correctly, Cal has a perfect record at home against the spread. None of this means anything, but if I were a Miami fan, I'd be careful of predicting huge margins of victory...unless of course, you like the taste of crow.

You are absolutely right Maverick.

Before attending the University of Florida and help starting this site, I grew up in South Florida. I used to go to about 3 to 5 home games a year from 1989 to about 2000. I know my fair share of Miami Hurricanes history. I am one of the few Gators fans that will root for the Hurricanes when they are not doing anything that is directly negatively affecting the Gators...

Wow--I know most of us out here on the West don't know that much about Miami, but you guys are basing so much on us losing to Maryland that you really haven't paid attention to what we have..We didn't play up to potential when all but one of our O-line starters were injured and Best didn't dominate for a stretch of games due to an dislocated elbow..We still held SC to their lowest scoring output and if you think we don't know speed with guys like Best and Vareen you will be unpleasantly surprised..It sounds like you have a lot of young talent and the extra practice can make them gel, but if you think we're some sort of soft Pac-10 team you'll be disappointed.
This game could easily go either way...

Hey, this is going out to all of the visitors. We are a relatively young site and we love your posts. We at gatorsfirst would like to know where you have been hearing about our site, just for our records. It would be of great help. Thanks! Keep contributing and feel free to post on any other story!

RJ - let me share with you some inside information, straight from Vegas. Cal's proximity to this gambling mecca always means that when betting on The Bears you will ALWAYS get less points than you should or give more points than you should. Why? Because Cal fans are known for blindly betting with their hearts, and because of geography can more easily carry through and get a bet down.

So the pros have Cal -7 (not +7 as RJ posts). That means that a wager involves Cal giving 7 points. It does not mean the pros believe Cal will win by 7. It does not mean the pros even believe Cal will win. Cal -7 simply means that's the number the pros believe is necessary to get equal money bet on both Cal and Miami, which minimizes the risk for the sports books.

That said, I believe the posters to this site know what they're talking about. And those who carry through, and take UM and the points, have a grand (like in MGM Grand) chance of winning. Personally I don't want the points, because Miami doesn't need the points. I'll bet Miami to win straight up, because my handicap forecast has Miami triumphing 34-26.

Ha! Miami = Has Beens ... still trolling around in the ashes?

Urban Meyer and Florida rules the South and for many years to come though Florida State is making their comeback and will give Meyer a run for his money in dominating Florida. All the best FL players will continue to go to Florida and Florida State.

Miami will be ACC mid-tier for many years to come.

Shannon will bring The Cane over to the WEST only to get smacked around. BEST is the real deal and will be Heisman contention next year. Just ask CollegeFootballNews.com!!

btw USC of the 2000 decade = Miami of the 1990's ... the harder they fall...

Go Bears!

Let the record show that Miami was the team of the 80's. Florida State and Florida were the teams of the 90's...

Hey drrover - you've got a soul mate in Calexander. You might have a friend in egbear, but he doesn't have much confidence in your team stating "this game could easily go either way......"

So what's Cal's glorious history? The team of the '20s? OOOOOH!

Best in Heisman Contention?!?!? Just like Desean (Da One to Watch)Jackson?!?!? Don't believe he got any votes last year, despite the hype and Cal's Heisman campaign for him. In fact, I believe Da One led your team to a 7-6 record, including a bowl victory against that power house Air Force team.

drrover hypes Cal's bowl record under Tedford. But let's face it, playing Air Force isn't quite the same as playing The U.

Calexander may want to talk smack, but its the Bears who will truly be smacked on December 27th.

BTW Maverick: GOOGLE. I was searching for an Emerald Bowl preview, and came across your site listing.

BTW Maverick: since you helped start this site, THANKS! And can you get drrover to stop cutting and pasting his old posts. We all know he lacks substance and facts to keep it fresh. But his reruns reflect poor blog etiquette.

Oh Great - drrover's Calexander soul mate has adopted the cut and paste rebuttal tactic. Hey guys, if it wasn't worth reading the first time...............

WiseGuy wrote:

QUOTE:
RJ - let me share with you some inside information, straight from Vegas. Cal's proximity to this gambling mecca always means that when betting on The Bears you will ALWAYS get less points than you should or give more points than you should. Why? Because Cal fans are known for blindly betting with their hearts, and because of geography can more easily carry through and get a bet down.

So the pros have Cal -7 (not +7 as RJ posts). That means that a wager involves Cal giving 7 points. It does not mean the pros believe Cal will win by 7. It does not mean the pros even believe Cal will win. Cal -7 simply means that's the number the pros believe is necessary to get equal money bet on both Cal and Miami, which minimizes the risk for the sports books.

That said, I believe the posters to this site know what they're talking about. And those who carry through, and take UM and the points, have a grand (like in MGM Grand) chance of winning. Personally I don't want the points, because Miami doesn't need the points. I'll bet Miami to win straight up, because my handicap forecast has Miami triumphing 34-26.

Thanks for the correction...Cal is indeed giving seven points. I plead momentary lapse of brain activity for writing +7 instead of -7.

That said, I think you're logic is flawed. If our proximity to Vegas is influencing the lines so much, then why is Cal 9-3 against the spread. You'd think all those Vegas bookies would want to punish us stupid Cal fans who will blindly bet on our team, no matter what. That...or maybe real Vegas insiders decided they no longer like money.

This is pretty funny that you guys are all talking about the U's history because frankly WE DONT GIVE A %*^&%. Yeah, yeah you guys have good history but what have you done lately? You guys are living in the past.

Anyway Cal is better than you guys think and the ACC doesn't impress me anymore than the Pac-10 does. And yes we have been USC's bitch for awhile but hey we can pray can't we?

Informational: you came up in Google Search, under "Cal Miami Emerald Bowl Preview"

Informative: lots of posts, by both sides, are referencing the last two games. So let's review them.

Cal went 2-0 in their last two games. Miami went 0-2.

Cal's opponents, in their last two games, have a combined record of 5-19. Neither of them (Stanford & Washington) are bowl bound. In these games, Jahvid Best padded his rushing stats - compiling over 500 yards in the 2 games (& finishing with about 1300 yards on the year).

Miami's opponents, in their last two games, have a combined record of 15-9. Both of them (G-tech & NC State) are bowl bound. In these games, Miami struggled to stop the run.

So Miami is obviously spending the bowl practice period accepting that they have work to do, specifically stopping the run.

By contrast, Cal enters the practice sessions with an overinflated sense of their ability to run the ball. And their fans are giddy thinking that their team is terrific, instead of realizing that the last two defenses they faced are pathetic.

Cal will go into the Emerald Bowl overconfident, believing they deserved better than the SF Bowl (if not for the banged up O-line, Best's dislocated elbow, and other excuses). By contrast, Miami will enter the game with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. This is reminescent of Cal vs Texas Tech in 2004. The 2008 bowl outcome will be similar to 2004: CAL WILL LOSE BY TWO TOUCHDOWNS!

Hey! Do the 'Canes still play D-1A CFB? I thought they were still stuck complaining about the officiating in the 2003 BCS NC against thee OSU Buckeyes.

Congratulations to the PAC Bear-boys for their Nut Bowl bid, and good luck on their quest to stuff those Harried-'Canes in back in their hackysack---ha, ha---Cal 38, 'Canes 17---so what!

The mighty USC Trojans will conquer you again in 2009!

RJ, young grasshopper, you have so much to learn. It does not matter to Vegas that Cal is 9-3 vs the spread. Vegas is not going to "gamble" with you. Vegas is going for the sure profit, by having even money bet on both teams. That way, Vegas takes their cut (10% juice) without having any significant money at risk. When the money is evenly wagered, Vegas wins whether Cal or their opposition wins the game.

I guarantee when Cal is the underdog, they are getting less points than they should based on objective handicapping. And when Cal is favored, they are favored by more than objective handicapping warrants. So objective analysis of Miami vs Cal does not warrant Cal by seven.

FYI - this also applies to the 49ers & Raiders. Less so with Stanford, because of their apathetic fan base. And not at all to BYU and Utah. Despite these two schools proximity to Vegas, their passionate Mormon fan base just doesn't gamble and thus doesn't skew the lines.

This is a great post. Good information and well thought out. I may even change my pick, as it was a toss up before hand!

hahahahahaha. dmd you are very very uninformed. Do you realize that in 04 we had a much better team that should have gone to the rose bowl but were jumped in the last week of voting by Texas. That was horrible. HORRIBLE! but this year we expected where we are now and we won't come in overconfident mainly because of the Maryland game and yes we do remember

The Canes were DEAD LAST in the ACC re: turnover margin..
-0.75/g wtf???

I expect Syd, Hagan, and Mohammed will have an interception each. This will be like a candy store for Cal's speedy D! Follett's going to have a field day!

The Canes were DEAD LAST in the ACC re: interceptions with only 4! ONLY 4 interceptions all year!!...wtf??? And only 36 passes defended??? wtf???

What are your DB's doing out there all year? Texting messages? Playing on their wii's?? wearing cement in their cleats?? wtf???

Riley will pass for at least 3 touch downs: 1 to Vereen, 1 to Boateng, and 1 to Morrah.

Cal 38
Canes 10

maverick wrote:

QUOTE:
Keep contributing and feel free to post on any other story!

Sorry Maverick, but your other bowl previews aren't worthy of comment. But you guys really struck a cord with this Emerald Bowl Analysis. Sorry if we've taken over your Emerald Bowl Post. This thread has become Gators 2nd, The U 1st! And the Cal Bears still suck!

Nyan Boateng, former Gator recruit that couldn't cut it...thought I could throw that jab in there

maverick wrote:

QUOTE:
Nyan Boateng, former Gator recruit that couldn't cut it...thought I could throw that jab in there

GOOD ONE!

I don't really care if he couldn't cut it at Florida he is still tough as nails and a great athlete. Most of you don't know anything about Pac 10 football and are living in Miami's past glory when they could dominate everybody. Sorry fella's but those days are going...... going..... wait I lost it in the sun.... O wait GONE!

STOP IT CALexander your getting annoying

WiseGuy wrote:

QUOTE:
RJ, young grasshopper, you have so much to learn. It does not matter to Vegas that Cal is 9-3 vs the spread. Vegas is not going to "gamble" with you. Vegas is going for the sure profit, by having even money bet on both teams. That way, Vegas takes their cut (10% juice) without having any significant money at risk. When the money is evenly wagered, Vegas wins whether Cal or their opposition wins the game.

I guarantee when Cal is the underdog, they are getting less points than they should based on objective handicapping. And when Cal is favored, they are favored by more than objective handicapping warrants. So objective analysis of Miami vs Cal does not warrant Cal by seven.

FYI - this also applies to the 49ers & Raiders. Less so with Stanford, because of their apathetic fan base. And not at all to BYU and Utah. Despite these two schools proximity to Vegas, their passionate Mormon fan base just doesn't gamble and thus doesn't skew the lines.

You seem extremely proud of your knowledge of how lines are set. That's good for you.

You still seem ignorant of my point.

I'm aware that lines are supposedly skewed towards the Bears because of the proximity of Cal fans to Vegas...yada, yada, yada. This may or may not be true...frankly, I don't care. Regardless of how Vegas sets lines, Cal just seems to keep covering them this year. Especially when we are home favorites. Maybe "objective analysis" would have led to Cal not being favored nearly as much this year...in which case we would have covered more often.

Now, Vegas predictions should always be taken with a grain of salt. What I said in my first post is worth repeating, "None of this means anything, but if I were a Miami fan, I'd be careful of predicting huge margins of victory...unless of course, you like the taste of crow."

Sorry pacX - but the 2008 Emerald Bowl is the 2004 Holiday Bowl, all over again. Sure, Cal's players are currently saying all the politically correct things about being happy to "stay close to home and play in the Emerald Bowl". But google Cal Football Emerald Bowl, and you'll read article after article about Cal preferring to travel to Nevada and play in the Vegas Bowl. They stated their preference prior to the official invites, and likely changed their story after getting an earful from their coaches, athletic director, and parents. Bottom Line: CAL DOESN'T WANT TO BE IN THE EMERALD BOWL. THIS WILL REFLECT IN THEIR PLAY. THEY WILL COME OUT FLAT, AND LIKE THIS YEAR'S GAME AGAINST MARYLAND CAL WILL FALL BEHIND EARLY AND BY ALOT. BY THE TIME CAL GETS THEIR ACT TOGETHER IT WILL BE TOO LATE. AND MIAMI WILL BE THE BOWL CHAMPS!

maverick wrote:

QUOTE:
Nyan Boateng, former Gator recruit that couldn't cut it...thought I could throw that jab in there

Actually, that's pretty funny.

Worst thing is, he's easily one of the best receivers we have right now. I personally like Tucker and Morrah better, but Boateng is definitely a guy we've had to rely upon this year.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
STOP IT CALexander your getting annoying

Agreed. Learn to use the site.

HAHAHAHAHA ok let's see here Rose bowl disaster. LAS VEAGS BOWL let down. HMMMM lets see which one is worse. UHHHH lets see i don't know let's see if your tiny brain can figure it out. I will also tell your uninformed soul that Cal hasn't been to the Rose Bowl in 50 years. 50 YEARS!!!! and it was taken away like that. I'm sorry but there is a HUGE difference from the Las Vegas bowl which we went to what 2 years ago and a BCS bowl game that we hadn't been to in 50 years.

Here's another article about a bowl game in California. Ironically, it's a much better game featuring two non-BCS teams...
http://gatorsfirst.com/index.php/college-football/poinsettia-bowl-preview.html

maverick wrote:

QUOTE:
Here's another article about a bowl game in California. Ironically, it's a much better game featuring two non-BCS teams...

http://gatorsfirst.com/index.php/college-football/poinsettia-bowl-preview.html

Yeah right, let's see how many comments your Poinsettia Bowl Preview post generates.......................

Cal vs The U clearly is a passionate match up. East vs West. Another opportunity to expose west coast football as soft.

Sorry, but the Emerald Bowl trumps the Poinsettia Bowl, the Holiday Bowl, and even the Granddaddy of Them All.

I have a feeling the amount of posts may correlate with the fact that Florida and Miami play within the same state.

That and we're dumb enough to allow a big argument between two schools that aren't playing in the championship game.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
This is pretty funny that you guys are all talking about the U's history because frankly WE DONT GIVE A %*^&%. Yeah, yeah you guys have good history but what have you done lately?

Bro - your Cal team hasn't been to the Rose Bowl in 50 years?!?! By comparison, I guess Miami has done quite a bit lately!

I feel you pain...........................NOT. But The Canes will be dishing out more pain to the Cal players and you Bear fans.

Whatever "Fair & Balanced" the U won't be a real force in Florida for awhile.

Cal Defense - 3rd in the nation with 23 INTs. Miami Offense - 9th in the nation 19 INTs. Have you guys played a quick 3-4 or seen ILB Worrell Williams and OLB Zack Follett? Both top 10 in the nation for their positions. Our offense - Best is one of the fastest kids in the country, our O-line will be healthier and is anchored by the best center in the nation. Your defense - Can’t stop the run. We even play in our backyard! I don't know who will score more, our defense or offense? Really Miami? I don’t think you know Cal football.
Good luck. GO BEARS!

For now, it doesn't matter if The U is a force in Florida. What matters is that The U is a force in Frisco on December 27th.

Why are you so confident Fair and Balanced? Because we're pac 10 pansies? Come into the new era of football ok? The truth is the ACC is weaker than the Pac 10. You guys have lots of OK teams but no great ones. Yeah we got the Washington schools but thats it.

umh5nc wrote:

QUOTE:
Everyone check out the Emerald Bowl website.

http://emeraldbowl.cstv.com/

On the site, the fan poll question is Who Will Win the 2008 Emerald Bowl?

UPDATE: Miami 444, Cal 129

The landslide opinion continues to be that Miami will win. That's a fact, Oski Whine Whine! Cal couldn't beat Maryland. Cal couldn't beat the ACC. History will repeat itself when Cal plays Miami.

You guys are making predictions when you know nothing about our team and when we try and tell you about our team you take as offensive and call it immaterial.

pacX - you know the Pac-10 conference is regarded as USC and the 9 dwarfs. You concede that the ACC has LOTS of OK teams but no great ones. I guess you reach such a conclusion by recognizing that 10 of the 12 ACC conference teams are playing in bowl games. Fine. The Pac-10 has one great team and 4 OK teams that qualified for bowl games. That leaves half your conference as bowl ineligible.

Which conference is weaker? The new era has not changed from the old era. ACC trumps the Pac-10.

I thought this board might have fans on it that would actually want to talk football and wouldn't rehash the same old Pac 10 vs. ACC or Maryland bullcrap. You aren't Maryland, our backyard isn't Maryland, and when you get here we are going to send you home crying. Why don't you guys comment on the stats that all the Bear fans have busted out? We know that the Pac 10 had a bad year... it's old news

Here's some whining for you. Come the 27th I will meet any of you before the game at Momo's, a bar right across the street from AT&T Park if you want to put your money where your mouth is. I'm sure a neutral bartender would hold $$$ 'till after the game.

Go Bears.

Do you realize that this year was expected to be a down year for the Pac 10. I don't know about the ACC but honestly last year they were a joke and you can't really compare bowl bids because the ACC has more teams. But really talking about old times Georgia Tech is running the triple option. Thats like wishbone stuff. WOW thats like a dinosaur playing football. Also the Pac 10 will be dominant next year while the ACC gets weaker. The Pac 10's on the rise and the ACC is on the decline and the conferences are meeting RIGHT when they are at the same strength.

I thought this board might have fans on it that would actually want to talk football and wouldn't rehash the same old Pac 10 vs. ACC or Maryland bullcrap. You aren't Maryland, our backyard isn't Maryland, and when you get here we are going to send you home crying. Why don't you guys comment on the stats that all the Bear fans have busted out? We know that the Pac 10 had a bad year... it's old news

Here's some whining for you. Come the 27th I will meet any of you before the game at Momo's, a bar right across the street from AT&T Park if you want to put your money where your mouth is. I'm sure a neutral bartender would hold $$$ 'till after the game.

Go Bears.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
You guys are making predictions when you know nothing about our team and when we try and tell you about our team you take as offensive and call it immaterial.

Are you and the other Cal supporters truly looking at the facts, as being laid out in this thread. It seems that you all are similarly guilty of discarding and dismissing the UM statements. Like maverick and goose, I'm all for the Gators. In fact I HATE THE U. But I can also check my biases, objectively review information, and make logical conclusions. And logic says that Miami will travel to San Francisco and beat the bears.

Your QB sucks - BOTH OF THEM. Your running game has embellished stats. Your defense is nothing like the Steelers, as some dreamer posted. When you cover the spread, it is because your defense and special teams put up points. When these two units don't score, your offense struggles to win the game. And when it comes to the intangibles, Miami is more motivated. Sorry if you can't handle the truth.

WHAT FACTS HAVE BEEN LAID OUT???????? NONE! They haven't told us anything about MIAMI all they have told us is how weak the Pac 10 is and we get it ok UF is all powerful yada yada yada

and its not like Miami's QB's are all that either...

I will also see Tebow be a flop in the pro's although he is a great college QB

LOL. Get a grip OskiWowWow. You and others should not be boasting about playing in "your backyard". It ain't like you're The U playing in The Orange Bowl on New Year's Day. You're more like Boise playing in the Humanitarian Bowl or New Mexico playing in the New Mexico Bowl or Hawaii playing in the Hawaii Bowl. In other words, qualifying for a home bowl game in December is nothing to crow about.

we aren't boasting we are stating it as an advantage.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
we aren't boasting we are stating it as an advantage.

Just like Cal had the advantage in San Diego in 2004 vs Texas Tech? OOOPS - there's that Holiday Bowl/Emerald Bowl analogy rearing its ugly head again. I know you don't want to "hear it", because YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!

That didn't even make sense. All you were trying to do was bring up a bowl loss in 2004 because the holiday bowl isn't in Cal's backyard. So I don't know what you are trying to get at because Cal also won the 2006 holiday bowl 45-10 against A&M who beat Tech and Texas. That argument goes to ways buddy. Sorry.

pacX, How is it that you are so clueless? San Diego is in California, and easily accessible to Cal's fan base in San Diego, LA, and the SF Bay Area. In the Holiday Bowl, Cal played Texas Tech (2004) and Texas A&M (2006). Have you ever traveled from Lubbock or College Station to California? Cal had the home crowd advantage in both holiday bowls. Cal fans took over the Gas Lamp district and Jack Murphy/Qualcomm Stadium, no? So why didn't Cal win both Holiday Bowls? Why did Cal lose the 2004 Holiday Bowl, despite being heavily favored? BECAUSE CAL DIDN'T WANT TO BE THERE! And they won in 2006 because they wanted to be there. So in 2008, Cal will waste the home crowd advantage in AT&T park, BECAUSE CAL DOESN'T WANT TO BE IN THE EMERALD BOWL.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
.......you can't really compare bowl bids because the ACC has more teams.

More clueless ramblings from pacX.

Hey moron (Cal grad?) Have you ever heard of percentages? 50% of the Pac10 teams were bowl eligible. 83% of the ACC teams were bowl eligible. So which conference, top to bottom, was stronger in 2008?

Funny how the Cal defenders don't accept the facts about the ACC's superiority. They are so quick to dismiss Cal's loss to Maryland. Perhaps they missed it while sitting up in the trees.

OK lets see San Francicso I dont know maybe a 20 minute bus ride. 15 minute drive. San Diego is almost in Mexico and is a 10 hour drive and about a 2 hour flight. maybe an hour 30. We are still closer but it is DEFINITELY not in our backyard. And really dude why would the 2006 team who had ambitions of a Championship want to be in the holiday bowl. We were a goal line stand from being in the rose bowl. This year we weren't expecting much so I don't see why you think we don't want to be in the Emerald Bowl and why does Miami want to be in the Emerald Bowl. With all those close losses they might want to be in the Orange Bowl.

OskiWowWow wrote:

QUOTE:
You aren't Maryland,

Hey Oski Whine Whine. The U sure ain't Maryland. Terrapins are in the Boise Bowl, having finished behind The U in the ACC power rankings. So if you can't beat Maryland, WHY DO YOU THINK YOU CAN BEAT THE U.

Statistical rankings are much less meaningful than head to head or common opponent analysis. Fair & Balanced made it clear. Miam beat Virginia Tech, who beat Maryland, who beat Cal. There is no reason for Cal fan to have hope in the Emerald Bowl. Unless they're hoping for an earthquake to postpone the game.

Why do you guys constantly say that we are gonna come out flat and that we don't care about being in the Emerald Bowl? You don't think Cal is going to be pumped about playing Miami? With injuries and poor QB play we forgot about the
Rose Bowl a few games ago but the leadership on this team is waaaay different than it was when we were ranked #2 last year and lost, leading to an epic collapse..I think the real question should be how fired up will U of M be leaving sunny weather to face possible cold and rain on the other side of the country with a small group of fans? You don't think Boateng doesn't want this game bad, even if it isn't U of F? You think guys like Rulon Davis, finally healthy, don't want to make a statement? You actually think a guy like Zack Follett is gonna be flat for a Bowl game? I mean, you can think you have more talent, and that's I'm sure why all of us are looking forward to the game, but you're really ignorant about our team if you think we'll be flat--motivation won't be a problem....

by the way how many OOC games did you schedule?

Dumbass percentages don't matter when the conference is way different than the Pac 10. In the Pac 10 we have a round Robin where we play every team in our conference while you have 2 separate conferences and play what 6 conference games? Then you play in your championship game. We don't have any of that.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
The truth is the ACC is weaker than the Pac 10.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
The Pac 10's on the rise and the ACC is on the decline and the conferences are meeting RIGHT when they are at the same strength.

Even more pacX ramblings................

OK, which is it pacX.............or is it paxil??? Because you need more meds! You can't talk out of both sides of your mouth. Heck, you're just talking out of your rear!

The ACC rules. The Pac10 sucks.

Miami wants to be in the Emerald Bowl. http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/story/812261.html

Cal doesn't want to be in the Emerald Bowl. http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_11123734

The team that plays with the right level of emotion will prevail. The team that wants to be there will prevail. All indicators favor Miami.

pacX wrote:

QUOTE:
by the way how many OOC games did you schedule?

And how many OOC road games did Cal win this year? The answer is none, as Cal went 0-1 OOC on the road...........losing to Maryland. Oh my gosh, there's those pesky little facts getting in the way of Cal fan's delusions.

Cal didn't show up in their one ACC match-up this year. Cal doesn't want to be in the Emerald Bowl. Cal's 8-4 record was inflated by beating up 5 bowl ineligible teams in the weak Pac10. In the Pac10, Cal went 1-3 against the other 4 bowl eligible teams. So why should any clear thinking person believe that Cal can beat Miami?