I think under, really on both counts. We could have 7 games left, which makes the one this season tempting (1 TD/game?), but I bet he doesn't get any against Citadel, and with our sudden 'stable' of running backs, he could really go under. Especially if/when Moody gets some short yardage carries. And this would be even more exaggerated next year, as we'd be forced much more to get a backup ready with Tebow being a senior.
So, I'll take the under, but it's a tough bet to make because of the video game nature of his stats a year ago.