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College Basketball Rewind: 2-1-10 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Chris Canada   
Monday, 01 February 2010

Now that we are a little more than half way through the 2009-10 college basketball season, we look at where we are right now, as teams are knee deep in their conference schedules. March madness is six weeks away, and teams have a ton to play for. Remember, there are 65 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 34 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (rankings are current AP poll)...

From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 61 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 30 at-large bids. This means that there are four remaining bids that will go to the ''bubble'' teams that I have listed. Out of the 61 that I have found, 28 come from major conferences and 33 from minor ones. A lot can change over the next few weeks, as you've already seen since last week.

 

SEC (6)

Projected Champion: #4 Kentucky (20-1, 5-1)

Should be in: #14 Tennessee (16-4, 4-2), Mississippi St (16-5, 4-2), #18 Vanderbilt (16-4, 5-1), Florida (15-6, 4-3), #25 Mississippi (16-5, 4-3)

Bubble: South Carolina (13-8, 4-3), Alabama (13-8, 3-4)

Analysis: As always we start off with the SEC, as we should because we represent a Florida Gator site! I'll keep Florida in the &should be in& column, even after this week's Tennessee loss. Yes, outsiders may think this is a big homer pick, but I think I can explain it.

The Gators have some very quality non-conference so far. They've beaten the current #5 Michigan State on a neutral court when the Spartans were #2 nationally. They then defeated Rutgers to take home the tournament title. They are also 2-0 against the ACC with wins over FSU (currently #26) in Gainesville and NC State on the road.

As for their six losses, they consist of a neutral site loss against current #3 Syracuse and a home loss to current #4 Kentucky where both games were tied with roughly four minutes left, a close road loss to current #18 Vandy, a neutral site loss to Richmond (a 15-6 team whose resume consists of wins over Missouri, Mississippi St, UMass, GW and an overtime loss at Wake Forest), and one point last second loss at current #14 Tennesse. The only real bad loss was to South Alabama, which was probably a letdown after consecutive losses to 'Cuse and Richmond.

We still have a ton of games against quality SEC opponents, including another game against current #14 Tennessee, Mississippi St in Gville, at current #25 Mississippi, current #18 Vandy in Gville, and at current #4 Kentucky

Hopefully they find their stride during conference play. They should be able to win at least 2 of 4 remaining home conference games. If they can win 3 of their remaining 5 road games, they should be in good shape. Also, current #29t Xavier comes to Gainesville for a late season non-conference matchup that could mean a lot to the tournament committee. Unlike previous years, I think Florida has the resume to push them over the edge.

John Calipari has the Kentucky Wildcat program back to it's lofty status of the 90's. They lost their first game of the season this week at South Carolina, due to the outstanding performance of Devan Downey. However, they won impressively against Vandy this weekend. From the looks of it now, I believe that they will take the championship. In a related story, I hate Kentucky, but I digress...

Tennessee has started well, and have a really good win at home against Kansas. Mississippi St, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt look very good at this point. The bubble holds South Carolina & Alabama at this point, but that could change in a split second.

 

ACC (5)

Projected Champion: #10t Duke (17-4, 5-2)

Should be in: #29t Wake Forest (14-5, 4-3), #33t Clemson (16-6, 4-4), #26 Florida St (16-5, 4-3), #21 Georgia Tech (16-5, 4-3)

Bubble: North Carolina (13-8, 2-4), Miami (16-5, 2-5), Virginia (13-6, 4-2), #42 Maryland (14-6, 4-2), Virginia Tech (16-4, 3-3)

Analysis: Unlike last year when there were three teams with a legit shot at winning the NCAA tournament, this year's ACC is WIDE OPEN for the taking. At this point, after watch a select few games, I think Duke is in the best position to win the conference title. However, at this point you could argue that all twelve teams still have a shot at making the tournament at this point. Talk about a loaded conference.

Duke is still in control of this league, however they got whooped by Georgetown this weekend. Besides GT, everyone seemed to go 1-1 this week. GT, Clemson, Wake, and FSU all have good enough resumes to get in at this point. Virginia Tech moved back to the bubble after a poor loss to Miami. Virginia is flying high with new coach Tony Bennett, formerly of Washington State. UNC and Miami have gotten off to rough starts in conference and are still on the bubble.

 

Big East (5)

Projected Champion: #2 Villanova (19-1, 8-0)

Should be in: #3 Syracuse (21-1, 8-1), #22 Pittsburgh (16-5, 6-3), #7 Georgetown (16-4, 6-3), #6 West Virginia (17-3, 6-2)

Bubble: Connecticut (13-8, 3-5), Notre Dame (15-7, 4-5), Louisville (13-8, 4-4), Cincinnati (14-7, 5-4), #37 Marquette (13-8, 4-5)

Analysis: The Big East is definitely the toughest conference to play in, because it seems like you are playing a top-25 team every night. Villanova, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia & Georgetown look to be the teams I see going deep in the tourney.

Notre Dame & UConn both lost twice this week, and join Louisville, Cincy, & Marquette on the bubble. Besides those top five teams, the rest of the contenders really haven't made a compelling argument as to when they should be in.

 

Big Ten+1 (4)

Projected Champion: #5 Michigan St (19-3, 8-0)

Should be in: #8 Purdue (18-3, 6-3), #13 Ohio St (16-6, 6-3), #16 Wisconsin (16-5, 6-3)

Bubble: Illinois (14-8, 6-3), Northwestern (14-7, 3-6), Minnesota (13-8, 4-5)

Analysis: Michigan St seems like the clear class of the league (and is a great notch in the belt for Florida!). Purdue looks like they have straightened the ship after a spell of losses. They should be a lock for the tourney, as should Ohio St and Wisconsin.

Illinois won both games with week, but are still on the bubble. With each loss Minnesota and Northwestern gather, they fall further and further behind other more deserving teams.

 

Big 12 (6)

Projected Champion: #1 Kansas (20-1, 6-0)

Should be in: #9 Texas (18-3, 4-2), #10t Kansas St (17-4, 4-3), #20 Baylor (16-4, 4-3), #35 Missouri (16-5, 4-2), #41 Oklahoma St (16-5, 4-3)

Bubble: Texas A&M (15-6, 4-3)

Analysis: Kansas is clearly in the driver's seat for conference supremacy. Texas and Kansas State will also be battling it out for the conference title. Kansas and Texas have entertaining two head-to-head matchups coming up, and I'm sure they'll have a chance to see each other again in the conference tourney.

Baylor, Missouri and Okie State have all started off very hot. Texas A&M has some work ahead of them, but a couple of big wins should get them in.

 

Pac-10 (2)

Projected Champion: California (14-7, 6-3)

Should be in: Arizona State (15-7, 5-4)

Bubble: Washington St (14-7, 4-5), Washington (14-7, 4-5), Arizona (12-9, 6-3)

Analysis: Is it possible that the Pac-10 can only bring ONE team to the NCAA tourney? If you look at how the teams stack up right now, you can make the case. Not one team in the Pac-10 registered one vote for the AP top 25 this week. Absoultely ridiculous.

This conference is so mediocre it's pitiful. California is on top of this conference at the moment, but Arizona St, Arizona, Washington & Wash St are right behind. I think two teams will end up separating themselves from the pack, and I think Cal and ASU will be those teams.

 

Other Conferences (33)

Projected Champions (threat teams, 8): #19 Temple (18-4, 6-1, Atlantic 10), #43 George Mason (15-7, 10-1, Colonial Athletic), #28 UAB (18-3, 6-1, Conference USA), #23 Butler (18-4, 11-0, Horizon League), #24 Northern Iowa (19-2, 10-1, Missouri Valley), #12 BYU (21-2, 6-1, Mountain West), #17 Gonzaga (17-4, 6-1, West Coast), Louisiana Tech (18-4, 6-2, Western Athletic)

Projected Champions (non-threat teams, 17): Stony Brook (America East), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun), Weber State (Big Sky), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Pacific (Big West), #27 Cornell (Ivy League), #31 Siena (MAAC), Akron (Mid-American), Morgan St (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Murray St (Ohio Valley), Lehigh (Patriot League), Western Carolina (Southern), Sam Houston St (Southland), Jackson St (SWAC), Oakland (Summit League), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Should be in: #29t Xavier (15-6, 7-1, Atlantic 10), #36 Charlotte (16-5, 6-1, Atlantic 10), #32 Rhode Island (17-3, 5-2, Atlantic 10), Tulsa (17-4, 6-1, Conference USA), #15 New Mexico (20-3, 6-2, Mountain West), #33t UNLV (17-4, 5-2, Mountain West), #40 Wichita St (19-4, 8-3, Missouri Valley), #38 St Marys (19-3, 6-1, West Coast)

Bubble: Richmond (16-6, 5-2, Atlantic 10), Dayton (15-6, 4-3, Atlantic 10), Old Dominion (17-6, 9-2, Colonial Athletic), Memphis (15-6, 5-2, Conference USA), Marshall (15-6, 4-3, Conference USA), #38 UTEP (15-5, 6-1, Conference USA), San Diego St (15-6, 4-3, Mountain West), Utah St (16-6, 6-2, Western Athletic),

Analysis: From the minor conferences, I have determined that 25 different conference champions and eight at-large spots are safe right now. I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those from traditionally tough conferences that should have a splash at the tourney, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences. The &threat teams& include five teams currently ranked in the top-25, including Temple, Butler, Northern Iowa, BYU, & Gonzaga.

As for the at-larges, I would think Xavier, Charlotte, Rhode Island, Tulsa, New Mexico, UNLV, Wichita St, & St Mary's are good enough to make the tourney without winning their conference. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams lose along the way because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.

Last Updated ( Monday, 01 February 2010 )
 
Discuss (1 posts)
College Basketball Rewind: 2-1-10
Feb 02 2010 05:46:20
Arizona State to contend in the Pac-10 instead of Arizona. Are you insane??? Arizona State has almost no talent outside of 3-pt shooters. Arizona has enough talent to sweep the last 9 games of the Pac-10 season. Arizona State should be happy if they sneak into the NIT, much less the NCAA's
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