Gators First Shop

The Bush League Sports Podcast

01-19-2012
01-13-2012
01-12-2012
College Basketball Rewind: 2-15-10 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Chris Canada   
Monday, 15 February 2010

Now that we are a little more than half way through the 2009-10 college basketball season, we look at where we are right now, as teams are knee deep in their conference schedules. March madness is seven weeks away, and teams have a ton to play for. Remember, there are 65 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 34 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (rankings are current AP poll)...

From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 61 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 30 at-large bids. This means that there are FOUR remaining bids that will go to the ''bubble'' teams that I have listed. Out of the 61 that I have found, 27 come from major conferences and 34 from minor ones. A lot can change over the next few weeks, as you've already seen since last week.

SEC (3)

Projected Champion: #2 Kentucky (24-1, 9-1)

Should be in: #20 Tennessee (18-6, 6-4), #17 Vanderbilt (19-5, 8-2)

Bubble: South Carolina (14-10, 5-5), #31t Mississippi St (18-7, 6-4), Florida (17-8, 6-4), Mississippi (17-7, 5-5)

Analysis: As always we start off with the SEC, as we should because we represent a Florida Gator site!

Really really rough week for Florida. After a road loss to South Carolina, the Gators got worked at home against a tough Xavier team. A win over Xavier would have really put the Gators over the top, but now they fall back onto the bubble.

The Gators have some very quality non-conference so far. They've beaten the current #11 Michigan State on a neutral court when the Spartans were #2 nationally. They then defeated Rutgers to take home the tournament title. They are also 2-0 against the ACC with wins over FSU in Gainesville and NC State on the road.

As for their eight losses, they consist of a neutral site loss against current #5 Syracuse and a home loss to current #2 Kentucky where both games were tied late in the secondhalf, a close road loss to current #17 Vandy, a neutral site loss to current #25 Richmond (a 20-6 team whose resume consists of wins over Missouri, Mississippi St, Temple, & Rhode Island), one point last second loss at current #20 Tennesse, and this weekend's two losses. The only real bad loss was to South Alabama, which was probably a letdown after consecutive losses to 'Cuse and Richmond.

We still have a ton of games against quality SEC opponents, including another game against current #20 Tennessee, at Ole Miss, current #17 Vandy in Gville, and at current #2 Kentucky

Hopefully they find their stride during conference play. They should be able to win at least 1 of 3 remaining home conference games. If they can win 2 of their remaining 3 road games, they should be in good shape. Unlike previous years, I think Florida has the resume to push them over the edge, but they still have some work to do.

John Calipari has the Kentucky Wildcat program back to it's lofty status of the 90's. They have bounced back nicely after their first loss of the year. From the looks of it now, I believe that they will take the championship. In a related story, I hate Kentucky, but I digress...

Tennessee has started well, and have a really good win at home against Kansas. Vanderbilt looks very good at this point. Ole Miss and Mississippi St are on the bubble, along with South Carolina, who's barely holding on.

ACC (7)

Projected Champion: #6 Duke (21-4, 9-2)

Should be in: #23 Wake Forest (18-5, 8-3), Clemson (18-7, 6-5), Florida St (18-7, 6-5), #35t Georgia Tech (17-8, 5-6), #35t Maryland (17-7, 7-3), #27 Virginia Tech (20-4, 7-3)

Bubble: None

Analysis: Unlike last year when there were three teams with a legit shot at winning the NCAA tournament, this year's ACC is WIDE OPEN for the taking. At this point, Duke is in the best position to win the conference title. However, Wake, VT, & Maryland are right there only one game back in the loss column.

Clemson, Wake, and FSU all have good enough resumes to get in at this point. Maryland is playing GREAT basketball right now, and have moved themselves into the &should be in& category. GT is a mystery. They've lost two straight. I still have them in, but if they continue losing, we'll have to reassess. Virginia Tech is now 20-4 and move back to the &should be in& category. Virginia is now off the bubble after losing twice this week.

Big East (5)

Projected Champion: #5 Syracuse (24-2, 11-2)

Should be in: #3 Villanova (22-3, 11-2), #19 Pittsburgh (19-6, 8-4), #10 Georgetown (18-6, 8-5), #8 West Virginia (19-5, 8-4)

Bubble: Notre Dame (17-9, 6-7), Louisville (16-9, 7-5), Cincinnati (15-9, 6-6), #30 Marquette (16-8, 7-5)

Analysis: The Big East is definitely the toughest conference to play in, because it seems like you are playing a top-25 team every night. Villanova, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia & Georgetown look to be the teams I see going deep in the tourney.

I still have Syracuse on top after a loss to Lousiville.

Notre Dame wins two, then loses two, rinse and repeat. They are still on the bubble, with Louisville (one more big win and they'll move up), Cincy, & Marquette. UConn is now off the bubble. Pretty incredible after bringing back so much talent from a final four team last year...

Big Ten+1 (5)

Projected Champion: #11 Michigan St (20-5, 10-3)

Should be in: #4 Purdue (21-3, 9-3), #9 Ohio St (20-6, 10-3), #14 Wisconsin (19-6, 9-4), #29 Illinois (17-9, 9-4)

Bubble: Northwestern (17-8, 6-7)

Analysis: Michigan St and Ohio St are tied for the league lead, with Purdue right behind. I think MSU will take the title, but 4 other teams can jump up and grab it. Purdue may be higher ranked at this point, but I think Michigan St takes it. Ohio St and Wisconsin are locks at this point.

Illinois beat Wisconsin early in the week, which solidified their tourney chances. Northwestern is the only other team worthy of consideration, but they need a miracle.

Big 12 (6)

Projected Champion: #1 Kansas (24-1, 10-0)

Should be in: #15 Texas (20-5, 6-4), #7 Kansas St (20-4, 7-3), #22 Baylor (19-5, 6-4), Missouri (18-7, 6-4), #24 Texas A&M (18-6, 7-3)

Bubble: Oklahoma St (17-7, 5-5)

Analysis: Kansas is clearly in the driver's seat for conference supremacy. Kansas State will also be battling it out for the conference title. What happened to Texas? Their slide continues, as they've lost five of seven after starting 17-0.

Baylor and Missouri have started off very hot. Texas A&M are flying high right now and should bein the tourney as well. Okie State has some work ahead of them, but a couple of big wins could get them in. Oklahoma is officially out.

Pac-10 (1)

Projected Champion: California (17-8, 9-4)

Should be in: None

Bubble: Washington (17-8, 7-6), Arizona State (18-8, 8-5)

Analysis: This conference is TERRIBLE. Is it possible that the Pac-10 can only bring ONE team to the NCAA tourney? This most certainly seems like the case. Not one team in the Pac-10 registered one vote for the AP top 25 for the second consecutive week. Absoultely ridiculous.

This conference is so mediocre it's pitiful. California is on top of this conference at the moment, but Arizona St or Washington could take over. I thought two teams would end up separating themselves from the pack, but every team keeps losing, and losing bad. Ugh...

Other Conferences (34)

Projected Champions (threat teams, 7): #21 Temple (20-5, 8-2, Atlantic 10), #28 UTEP (19-5, 10-1, Conference USA), #22 Butler (23-4, 16-0, Horizon League), #26 Northern Iowa (22-3, 13-2, Missouri Valley), #12 New Mexico (23-3, 9-2, Mountain West), #13 Gonzaga (21-4, 9-1, West Coast), Utah St (20-6, 10-2, Western Athletic)

Projected Champions (non-threat teams, 18): Stony Brook (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Weber State (Big Sky), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Pacific (Big West), Northeastern (Colonial Athletic), #34 Cornell (Ivy League), Siena (MAAC), Akron (Mid-American), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Lehigh (Patriot League), Charleston (Southern), Sam Houston State (Southland), Jackson State (SWAC), Oakland (Summit League), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Should be in (9): #35t Xavier (17-7, 8-2, Atlantic 10), Charlotte (18-6, 8-2, Atlantic 10), #25 Richmond (20-6, 9-2, Atlantic 10), Rhode Island (19-5, 7-4, Atlantic 10), UAB (19-5, 7-3, Conference USA), Tulsa (19-6, 8-3, Conference USA), Wichita St (21-6, 10-5, Missouri Valley), #16 BYU (23-3, 8-2, Mountain West), #31t UNLV (19-6, 7-4, Mountain West)

Bubble: Dayton (17-7, 6-4, Atlantic 10), St Louis (16-8, 7-3, Atlantic 10), #33 Old Dominion (20-7, 12-3, Colonial Athletic), Memphis (18-7, 8-2, Conference USA), Marshall (18-7, 6-4, Conference USA), Illinois St (18-8, 9-6, Missouri Valley), #35t San Diego St (18-7, 7-4, Mountain West), St Marys (21-5, 8-3, West Coast), Louisiana Tech (20-5, 8-3, Western Athletic)

Analysis: From the minor conferences, I have determined that 25 different conference champions and NINE at-large spots are safe right now. I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those from traditionally tough conferences that should have a splash at the tourney, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences. The &threat teams& include six teams currently ranked in the top-25, including Temple, Butler, New Mexico, & Gonzaga.

As for the at-larges, I would think Xavier, Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, Tulsa, UAB, BYU, UNLV, & Wichita St are good enough to make the tourney without winning their conference. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams lose along the way because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.

Notice I have FIVE teams from the Atlantic-10. It's very odd to think about that, but with the Pac-10 having a terrible year, combined with fact that the A-10 teams have some really great wins, it's really possible that this can happen.

Last Updated ( Tuesday, 16 February 2010 )
  No Comments.
Quick Post

 
Security Image Text:


CAPTCHA Image
Reload Image (Not case sensitive)
 

Discuss...
< Prev   Next >
 
Sunshine Greens