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Now that we are a little more than half way through the 2009-10 college basketball season, we look at where we are right now, as teams are knee deep in their conference schedules. March madness is seven weeks away, and teams have a ton to play for. Remember, there are 65 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 34 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (rankings are from current AP poll)...
From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 63 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 32 at-large bids. This means that there are four remaining bids that will go to the ''bubble'' teams that I have listed. Out of the 63 that I have found, 28 come from major conferences and 35 from minor ones. A lot can change over the next few weeks, as you've already seen since last week.
SEC (5)
Projected Champion: #3 Kentucky (22-1, 7-1)
Should be in: #12 Tennessee (18-4, 6-2), #22 Vanderbilt (17-5, 6-2), Florida (17-6, 6-3), #32t Mississippi (17-6, 5-4)
Bubble: South Carolina (13-9, 4-4), Mississippi St (16-7, 4-4)
Analysis: As always we start off with the SEC, as we should because we represent a Florida Gators site! I'll keep Florida in the &should be in& column for the 2010 NCAA Championship, even after this week's Tennessee loss. Yes, outsiders may think this is a big homer pick, but I think I can explain it.
The Gators have some very quality non-conference so far. They've beaten the current #10 Michigan State on a neutral court when the Spartans were #2 nationally. They then defeated Rutgers to take home the tournament title. They are also 2-0 against the ACC with wins over FSU (currently #37) in Gainesville and NC State on the road.
As for their six losses, they consist of a neutral site loss against current #2 Syracuse and a home loss to current #3 Kentucky where both games were tied with roughly four minutes left, a close road loss to current #22 Vandy, a neutral site loss to #41t Richmond (an 18-6 team whose resume consists of wins over Missouri, Mississippi St, UMass, GW, Temple and an overtime loss at Wake Forest), and one point last second loss at current #12 Tennesse. The only real bad loss was to South Alabama, which was probably a letdown after consecutive losses to 'Cuse and Richmond.
We still have a ton of games against quality SEC opponents, including another game against current #12 Tennessee, Mississippi St in Gville, at current #32t Mississippi, current #22 Vandy in Gville, and at current #3 Kentucky
Hopefully they find their stride during conference play. They should be able to win at least 1 of 3 remaining home conference games. If they can win 2 of their remaining 4 road games, they should be in good shape. Also, Xavier comes to Gainesville for a late season non-conference matchup that could mean a lot to the tournament committee. Unlike previous years, I think Florida has the resume to push them over the edge.
John Calipari has the Kentucky Wildcat program back to it's lofty status of the 90's. They have bounced back nicely after their first loss of the year. From the looks of it now, I believe that they will take the championship. In a related story, I hate Kentucky, but I digress...
Tennessee has started well, and have a really good win at home against Kansas. Ole Miss and Vanderbilt look very good at this point. Mississippi St lost twice this week and moves back to the bubble, along with South Carolina, who's barely holding on.
ACC (6)
Projected Champion: #8 Duke (19-4, 7-2)
Should be in: #28 Wake Forest (16-5, 6-3), Clemson (16-7, 4-5), #37 Florida St (17-6, 5-4), #20 Georgia Tech (17-6, 5-4), #29 Maryland (16-6, 6-2)
Bubble: Virginia (14-7, 5-3), #38 Virginia Tech (18-4, 5-3)
Analysis: Unlike last year when there were three teams with a legit shot at winning the NCAA basketball tournament, this year's ACC is WIDE OPEN for the taking. At this point, Duke is in the best position to win the conference title. However, at this point you could argue that eight of twelve teams still have a shot at making the tournament at this point.
Duke is still in control of this league, however they got whooped by Georgetown last weekend, which makes them seem week. GT, Clemson, Wake, and FSU all have good enough resumes to get in at this point. Maryland is playing GREAT basketball right now, and have moved themselves into the &should be in& category.
Virginia Tech moved back to the bubble after a poor loss to Miami last week, and even though they won twice this week, they still have some work to do. Virginia is flying high with new coach Tony Bennett, formerly of Washington State. UNC and Miami are now OFF the bubble completely with two losses each last week.
Big East (5)
Projected Champion: #2 Syracuse (23-1, 10-1)
Should be in: #4 Villanova (20-2, 9-1), #25 Pittsburgh (17-6, 7-4), #7 Georgetown (17-5, 7-4), #5 West Virginia (19-3, 8-2)
Bubble: Connecticut (14-9, 4-6), Notre Dame (17-7, 6-5), Louisville (15-8, 6-4), Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6), #39 Marquette (15-8, 6-5), #44 South Florida (15-8, 5-6)
Analysis: The Big East is definitely the toughest conference to play in, because it seems like you are playing a top-25 team every night. Villanova, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia & Georgetown look to be the teams I see going deep in the tourney.
Georgetown put the beatdown on Villanova last weekend. Syracuse now takes over the top spot in the league (It could be argued they were already #1).
Notre Dame has a good week this week winning two games, but are still on the bubble. UConn, Louisville, Cincy, & Marquette on the bubble as well. Joining them this week is South Florida, who has beaten Pitt and Georgetown recently, but lost to Marquette last night.
Big Ten+1 (5)
Projected Champion: #10 Michigan St (19-5, 9-2)
Should be in: #6 Purdue (19-3, 7-3), #13 Ohio St (18-6, 8-3), #11 Wisconsin (18-5, 8-3), #36 Illinois (16-8, 8-3)
Bubble: Northwestern (16-7, 5-6), Minnesota (14-8, 5-5)
Analysis: Michigan St seems like the clear class of the league (and is a great notch in the belt for Florida!), but two losses this week bring them back down a bit. Purdue may be higher ranked at this point but I think Michigan St will end up taking the crown. Ohio St and Wisconsin are also locks at this point.
Illinois won both games with week, including a big win over MSU. They play Wisconsin early in the week, which could really be huge for their tourney chances. An 8-3 conference record is good enough for the tourney at this point. With each loss Minnesota and Northwestern gather, they fall further and further behind other more deserving teams.
Big 12 (6)
Projected Champion: #1 Kansas (22-1, 8-0)
Should be in: #14 Texas (19-4, 5-3), #9 Kansas St (19-4, 6-3), #24 Baylor (17-5, 4-4), #43 Missouri (17-6, 5-3), #26 Texas A&M (17-6, 6-3)
Bubble: Oklahoma St (16-7, 4-5), Oklahoma (13-9, 4-4)
Analysis: Kansas is clearly in the driver's seat for conference supremacy. Kansas State will also be battling it out for the conference title. What happened to Texas? In an interesting development lost four of six after starting 17-0. Kansas and Texas have two head-to-head matchups coming up, and I'm sure they'll have a chance to see each other again in the conference tourney.
Baylor and Missouri have started off very hot. Texas A&M are flying high right now and should bein the tourney as well. Okie State lost twice last week and fell back onto the bubble. They have some work ahead of them, but a couple of big wins could get them in. Oklahoma has a TON of work to do, but a win over Texas in their last game is a good start. They are now back on the bubble.
Pac-10 (1)
Projected Champion: California (15-8, 7-4)
Should be in: none
Bubble: Washington St (15-8, 5-6), Washington (16-7, 6-5), Arizona (12-11, 6-5), Arizona State (16-8, 6-5)
Analysis: This conference is TERRIBLE. Is it possible that the Pac-10 can only bring ONE team to the NCAA tourney? This most certainly seems like the case. Not one team in the Pac-10 registered one vote for the AP top 25 for the second consecutive week. Absoultely ridiculous.
This conference is so mediocre it's pitiful. California is on top of this conference at the moment, but Arizona St, Arizona, Washington & Wash St are right behind. I thought two teams would end up separating themselves from the pack, but every team keeps losing, and losing bad. Ugh...
Other Conferences (35)
Projected Champions (threat teams, 7): #21 Temple (19-5, 7-2, Atlantic 10), #39 UAB (19-4, 7-2, Conference USA), #18 Butler (21-4, 14-0, Horizon League), #19 Northern Iowa (21-2, 12-1, Missouri Valley), #17 BYU (22-3, 7-2, Mountain West), #16 Gonzaga (19-4, 7-1, West Coast), Utah St (18-6, 8-2, Western Athletic)
Projected Champions (non-threat teams, 18): Stony Brook (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Pacific (Big West), Northeastern (Colonial Athletic), #27 Cornell (Ivy League), #34t Siena (MAAC), Kent State (Mid-American), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Lehigh (Patriot League), Charleston (Southern), Sam Houston State (Southland), Jackson State (SWAC), Oakland (Summit League), Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
Should be in (10): Xavier (16-7, 8-2, Atlantic 10), #30 Charlotte (18-5, 8-1, Atlantic 10), #32t Rhode Island (19-3, 7-2, Atlantic 10), #41t Richmond (18-6, 7-2, Atlantic 10), Tulsa (18-5, 7-2, Conference USA), #31 UTEP (17-5, 8-1, Conference USA), #15 New Mexico (21-3, 7-2, Mountain West), #23 UNLV (19-4, 7-2, Mountain West), #41t Wichita St (20-5, 8-3, Missouri Valley), #34t St Marys (21-3, 8-1, West Coast)
Bubble: Dayton (16-6, 5-3, Atlantic 10), Old Dominion (18-7, 10-3, Colonial Athletic), Memphis (16-7, 6-2, Conference USA), Marshall (16-7, 5-4, Conference USA), San Diego St (16-7, 5-4, Mountain West), Louisiana Tech (19-4, 7-2, Western Athletic)
Analysis: From the minor conferences, I have determined that 25 different conference champions and ten at-large spots are safe right now. I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those from traditionally tough conferences that should have a splash at the tourney, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences. The ''threat teams'' include six teams currently ranked in the top-25, including UAB, Temple, Butler, Northern Iowa, BYU, & Gonzaga.
As for the at-larges, I would think Xavier, Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, Tulsa, UTEP, New Mexico, UNLV, Wichita St, & St Mary's are good enough to make the March Madness tourney without winning their conference. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams lose along the way because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.
Notice I have FIVE teams from the Atlantic-10. It's very odd to think about that, but with the Pac-10 having a terrible year, combined with fact that the A-10 teams have some really great wins, it's really possible that this can happen. |