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The first set of conference tourneys start on Tuesday, March 2nd. Most of the major conferences don't start until March 9-11. Therefore teams have about 2 or 3 games left to impress the committee before starting conference tournament play, and basketball fans are running short on time for March Madness betting and completing their brackets with friends.
Remember, there are 65 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 34 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (full rankings are current AP poll)...
From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 63 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 32 at-large bids. Out of these 63 teams, 31 come from major conferences and 32 from minor ones. March 14th is approaching rapidly, so teams need to bunker down and play hard to make the field of 65.
This means that there are TWO remaining at-large bids that will go to the ''bubble'' teams that I have listed. If I were to choose from the remaining bubble teams that are listed below, my last two in, in order, would be: Mississippi St and St Mary's. My first four out would be Notre Dame, Arizona State, Charlotte, and Wichita St. And my next four out would be Connecticut, Rhode Island, San Diego St, and Memphis. Mississippi, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Washington, Marshall, Tulsa, Illinois St, New Mexico St, and Louisiana Tech are also on my bubble list (read below).
This ordering is based on where they stand now, and how I predict them to finish down the stretch. These rankings could change dramatically during next week's conference tourneys. Look for my picks for these crucial bubble watch games at the end of each conference's analysis. My picks will be italicized.
Also, the difference between ''locks'' and ''should be in'' is that if a team were to lose their remaining 2-4 games, ''locks'' would still make the tournament regardless, while ''should be in'' would have to be reevaluated. ''Bubble'' means that the team still has work to do.
SEC (4) Championship March 11-14 in Nashville, TN - Projected Champion: Kentucky
Locks: #3 Kentucky (27-2, 12-2), #16 Tennessee (21-7, 9-5), #13 Vanderbilt (22-6, 11-3)
Should be in: Florida (20-9, 9-5)
Bubble: #35 Mississippi St (21-8, 9-5), Mississippi (19-9, 7-7)
Analysis: As always we start off with the SEC, as we should because we represent a Florida Gator site!
Wow, did the Gators shoot themselves in the foot! After taking down Tennessee Tuesday night is a fantastic showing, the Gators laid an egg and lost a nailbiter at last place Georgia. Now, will this ruin their chances at an NCAA berth?
We still have two more games against SEC opponents, including a tough but winable game against current Vandy in Gville, and the season finale at Kentucky. They'll probably lose at Kentucky. But, unlike previous years, I think Florida has the resume to push them over the edge. I wouldn't do any sports betting against the Gators in the Vandy game.
Here are the scenarios I see for making the March Madness tourney:
Win over Vandy or Kentucky, definitely in
Lose to Vandy and Kentucky, win two tourney games, definitely in
Lose to Vandy and Kentucky, win only one tourney game, 75% chance
Lose to Vandy and Kentucky, lose first round of tourney, 25% chance
The Gators have some very quality non-conference wins so far. They've beaten the current #11 Michigan State on a neutral court when the Spartans were #2 nationally. They then defeated Rutgers to take home the tournament title. They are also 2-0 against the ACC with wins over FSU in Gainesville and NC State on the road.
As for their nine losses, they consist of a neutral site loss against current #1 Syracuse and a home loss to current #3 Kentucky where both games were tied late in the second half, a close road loss to current #13 Vandy, a neutral site loss to Richmond (who's an NCAA lock from the tough A-10), one point last second loss at current #16 Tennesse, current #25 Xavier at home, and South Carolina and Georgia on the road. The only really bad loss was to South Alabama, which was probably a letdown after consecutive losses to 'Cuse and Richmond.
John Calipari has the Kentucky Wildcat program back to it's lofty status of the 90's. They're on a roll right now. It's pretty much a forgone conclusion that they will take the championship. In a related story, I hate Kentucky, but I digress...
Tennessee got smoked by Florida mid-week, but rebounded by knocking off Kentucky. That, along with an early season win against Kansas have them in the ''lock'' category.
Vanderbilt has been solid all year and is also a lock.
Mississippi St has played themselves to the brink of being off the bubble lately. But another win or two would seal the deal.
Ole Miss won both games last week, but are barely holding on.
Last weekend's results (2/26-2/28): Saturday - Kentucky lost at Tennessee, Vanderbilt won at Arkansas, Mississippi won at Alabama, Florida lost at Georgia, Mississippi St won at South Carolina,
Games this week (3/1-3/4): Tuesday: Vanderbilt at Florida 7pm (ESPN)
Wednesday: Kentucky at Georgia 8pm (ESPN360), Arkansas at Tennessee 7pm (ESPN360), Mississippi State at Auburn 8pm (ESPN360)
Thursday: LSU at Mississippi 9pm (ESPN)
ACC (7) Championship March 11-14 in Greensboro, NC - Projected Champion: Duke
Locks: #4 Duke (25-4, 12-2), #22 Maryland (21-7, 11-3)
Should be in: Clemson (20-8, 8-6), Florida St (20-8, 8-6), Wake Forest (18-8, 8-6), Georgia Tech (19-9, 7-7), #34 Virginia Tech (21-7, 8-6)
Bubble: none
Analysis: Unlike last year when there were three teams with a legit shot at winning the NCAA tournament, this year's ACC doesn't have a dominating team.
It looks like Duke is in the best position to win the conference title. They continue to win year in a nd year out, which is a testament to the great job Mike Krkhasdf;nlaksdvfski has done over the last 30+ years.
Maryland is playing GREAT basketball right now, and have locked up a berth with their 11 conference wins.
Clemson, Wake, and FSU all have good enough resumes to get in at this point.
GT is a mystery. Sometimes they look great and sometimes they're flat. I still have them in, but if they continue losing, we'll have to reassess.
Virginia Tech is is back ont eh bubble after two questionable losses this past week. Their 21-7 record is a bit inflated. If they win their remaining two games, they'll probably assure their berth.
Last weekend's results (2/26-2/28): Saturday - Boston College lost at Georgia Tech, North Carolina won at Wake Forest, Maryland won at Virginia Tech
Sunday - Duke won at Virginia, Clemson won at Florida St
Games this week (3/1-3/4): Tuesday: Georgia Tech at Clemson 8pm (ESPN360)
Wednesday: Duke at Maryland 9pm (ESPN), Wake Forest at Florida State 7pm (ESPN2), North Carolina State at Virginia Tech 7pm
Big East (7) Championship March 9-13 in New York, NY - Projected Champion: Syracuse
Locks: #1 Syracuse (27-2, 14-2), #9 Villanova (23-5, 12-4), #17 Pittsburgh (22-7, 11-5), #19 Georgetown (19-8, 9-7), #10 West Virginia (22-6, 11-5)
Should be in: #38 Louisville (19-10, 7-5), #30 Marquette (19-9, 10-6)
Bubble: #39t Notre Dame (19-10, 8-8), Cincinnati (16-12, 7-9), Connecticut (17-12, 7-9)
Analysis: The Big East is definitely the toughest conference to play in, because it seems like you are playing a top-25 team every night. Villanova, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia & Georgetown look to be the teams I see going deep in the tourney. Syracuse is the best team in the country.
I think Louisville and Marquette played their way into the tourney last week.
Notre Dame had a great week, taking down Pitt and Georgetown. Whoa, that's a statement from a team that wants to make the tourney.
Cincy lost at West Virginia in a game they really needed to win. They'll need a deep run in the conference tournament.
UConn had to run the table for the last few week to make the tourney. They couldn't finish off Louisville at home in a game that probably sealed their fate.
Last weekend's results (2/26-2/28): Saturday - Villanova lost at Syracuse, Cincinnati lost at West Virginia, Notre Dame won at Georgetown, Pittsburgh won at St John's
Sunday - Marquette won at Seton Hall, Louisville won at Connecticut
Games this week (3/1-3/4): Monday: Georgetown at West Virginia 7pm (ESPN)
Tuesday: St. John's at Syracuse 7pm (ESPN360), Villanova at Cincinnati 7pm (ESPN2), Louisville at Marquette 9:30pm (ESPNU)
Wednesday: Connecticut at Notre Dame 7pm (ESPN)
Thursday: Providence at Pittsburgh 9pm (ESPN2)
Big Ten+1 (5) Championship March 11-14 in Indianapolis, IN - Projected Champion: Michigan St
Locks: #7 Purdue (24-4, 12-4), #11 Michigan St (22-7, 12-4), #6 Ohio St (23-7, 13-4), #15 Wisconsin (21-7, 11-5)
Should be in: #32 Illinois (18-11, 10-6)
Bubble: Minnesota (17-11, 8-8)
Analysis: Purdue took control of the conference last week, but with Hummel's injury, they've become third fiddle to Michigan St and Ohio St.
I now think that Michigan St will take the title, but three other teams can jump up and grab it.
Wisconsin is also a lock at this point.
Illinois should be in with a string of solid wins.
Minnesota is the only other team worthy of consideration, but they need a miracle
Last weekend's results (2/26-2/28): Saturday - Michigan lost at Ohio St, Minnesota won at Illinois
Sunday - Michigan St won at Purdue
Games this week (3/1-3/4): Tuesday: Illinois at Ohio State 9pm (ESPN), Minnesota at Michigan 7pm (Big Ten Netw
Wednesday: Indiana at Purdue 6:30pm, Iowa at Wisconsin 8:30pm
Thursday: Penn State at Michigan State 7pm (ESPN2)
Big 12 (7) Championship March 10-13 in Kansas City, MO - Projected Champion: Kansas
Locks: #1 Kansas (27-2, 13-1), #26 Texas (22-7, 8-6), #5 Kansas St (24-4, 11-3), #21 Baylor (22-6, 9-5), #31 Missouri (21-8, 9-5), #23 Texas A&M (20-8, 9-5)
Should be in: #29 Oklahoma St (20-8, 8-6)
Bubble:
Analysis: Kansas is clearly in the driver's seat for conference supremacy.
Kansas State will also be battling it out for the conference title.
Texas has gone 5-7 since starting 17-0. They've gone from #1 to out of the top-25 in two months. Pretty crazy.
Baylor and Missouri have started off very hot. Texas A&M are flying high right now and should bein the tourney as well.
Okie State got their big win over Kansas that clinched a spot in the big dance.
Last weekend's results (2/26-2/28): Saturday - Kansas lost at Oklahoma St, Missouri lost at Kansas St, Texas lost at Texas A&M, Baylor won at Oklahoma
Games this week (3/1-3/4): Monday: Oklahoma at Texas 9pm (ESPN);
Tuesday: Missouri at Iowa State 8pm (ESPN360)
Wednesday: Kansas State at Kansas 8pm (ESPN360), Oklahoma State at Texas A&M 9pm (ESPN2)
Pac-10 (1) Championship March 11-14 in Los Angeles, CA - Projected Champion: California
Locks: California (20-9, 12-5)
Should be in:
Bubble: Washington (19-9, 9-7), Arizona State (20-9, 10-6)
Analysis: This conference is TERRIBLE. Is it possible that the Pac-10 can only bring ONE team to the NCAA tourney? This most certainly seems like the case. Not one team in the Pac-10 has registered one vote for the AP top 25 in a month. Absoultely ridiculous.
This conference is so mediocre it's pitiful. California is on top of this conference at the moment, but Arizona St or Washington could take over. I thought two teams would end up separating themselves from the pack, but every team keeps losing, and losing bad. Ugh...
Last weekend's results (2/26-2/28): Saturday - Arizona St lost at California
Games this week (3/1-3/4): Thursday: USC at Arizona State 8:30pm, Washington at Oregon 10pm
Other Conferences (32)
Projected Champions (Locks/Should Be In's): Temple (Atlantic-10+4), UTEP (Conference USA), Butler (Horizon), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), New Mexico (Mountain West), Gonzaga (West Coast), Utah St (Western Athletic)
Projected Champions (must win conference, 18): Stony Brook (America East), Campbell (Atlantic Sun), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Coastal Carolina (Big South), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), #39t Old Dominion (Colonial Athletic), #37 Cornell (Ivy League), Siena (MAAC), Akron (Mid-American), Morgan State (MEAC), Quinnipiac (Northeast), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Lehigh (Patriot League), Wofford (Southern), Sam Houston State (Southland), Jackson State (SWAC), Oakland (Summit League), North Texas (Sun Belt)
Locks (9): #20 Temple (24-5, 12-2, Atlantic 10+4), #25 Xavier (21-7, 12-2, Atlantic 10+4), #27 Richmond (22-7, 11-3, Atlantic 10+4), #24 UTEP (22-5, 13-1, Conference USA), #12 Butler (26-4, 18-0, Horizon League), #28 Northern Iowa (25-4, 15-3, Missouri Valley), #8 New Mexico (27-3, 13-2, Mountain West), #14 BYU (26-4, 11-3, Mountain West), #18 Gonzaga (24-5, 12-2, West Coast),
Should be in (5): Dayton (19-9, 8-6, Atlantic 10+4), St Louis (19-9, 10-4, Atlantic 10+4), UAB (23-5, 11-3, Conference USA), UNLV (22-7, 10-5, Mountain West), #33 Utah St (23-6, 12-2, Western Athletic)
Bubble: Charlotte (19-9, 9-5, Atlantic 10+4), Rhode Island (20-7, 8-6, Atlantic 10+4), Memphis (21-8, 11-3, Conference USA), Marshall (22-7, 10-4, Conference USA), Tulsa (20-9, 9-5, Conference USA), Wichita St (23-8, 12-6, Missouri Valley), Illinois St (21-9, 11-7, Missouri Valley), San Diego St (20-8, 9-5, Mountain West), St Marys (24-5, 11-3, West Coast), New Mexico St (19-9, 11-3, Western Athletic), Louisiana Tech (22-7, 9-5, Western Athletic)
Analysis: There are many great teams out there that aren't in any of the big six major conferences. I have broken up the projected conference champions by their ability to make the tourney regardless of whether they won their conference title or not.
I have determined that 25 different conference champions and 7 at-large spots are safe right now. I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those from traditionally tough conferences that should have a splash at the tourney, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences. The ''locks'' include seven teams currently ranked in the top-25, including Xavier, Northern Iowa, BYU, Temple, Butler, New Mexico, & Gonzaga.
There are five teams that should be in as of right now. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams lose along the way because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.
Notice I have FIVE teams from the Atlantic-10+4. It's very odd to think about that, but with the Pac-10 having a terrible year, combined with fact that the A-10+4 teams have some really great wins, it's really possible that this can happen.
As for the bubble, I have added eleven teams for which a limited number of spots remain.
From the A-10+4, Charlotte and Rhode Island have outside chances at a bid. Both will have to hope a team above them falls back, as well as win their remaining two games.
From Conference USA, Memphis, Marshall, and Tulsa is still alive. Memphis is in better shape than the other two. If they reach at least the CUSA semifinals, they have an outside shot at a bid.
From the Missouri Valley, Wichita St is a very good team and can easily take one of the spots is MSU or St Mary's falters. Illinois St needs to win and win big soon, and probably make the MVC conference finals.
From the Mountain West, San Diego St is in a similar position to Wichita St. They need to have some conference tourney wins, most likely against New Mexico or BYU.
From the West Coast, St Marys may be the last team in the big dance as of right now. If they go deep in their conference tournament, they're in.
From the Western Athletic, New Mexico St and Louisiana Tech need a miracle, and a run in their conference tourney.
Last weekend's results (2/26-2/28): Friday - Butler won at Valparaiso, Princeton lost at Cornell, Siena won at Rider;
Saturday - New Mexico won at BYU, San Francisco lost at Gonzaga, Illinois St lost at Northern Iowa, Rice lost at UTEP, Southern Illinois lost at Wichita St, Tulane lost at UAB, Rhode Island lost at St Bonaventure, UNLV won at Air Force, Charlotte lost at George Washington, Tulsa won at East Carolina, UCF lost at Marshall, Massachusetts lost at Dayton, Southern Miss lost at Memphis, Loyola Marymount lost at St Mary's, Boise St lost at New Mexico St, Washington won at Washington St
Sunday - Temple won at La Salle, Richmond lost at Xavier
Games this week (3/1-3/4): Monday: Fresno State at Utah State 9pm (ESPN360);
Tuesday: Cal State Bakersfield at Gonzaga 9pm
Wednesday: Brigham Young at Utah 9pm, TCU at New Mexico 8:30pm, Temple at Saint Louis 8pm, Memphis at UAB 7pm, Charlotte at Rhode Island 7pm, Xavier at Fordham 7pm, Southern Methodist at Tulsa 8pm, Colorado State at San Diego State 10:30pm
Thursday: Dayton at Richmond 7pm, New Mexico State at Nevada 10pm |