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Now that we are three quarters of the way through the 2010-11 college basketball season, we look at where we are right now, as teams are knee deep in their conference schedules. Selection Sunday is three weeks away, and teams have a ton to play for. Remember, there are now 68 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 37 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (rankings are current AP poll)...
From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 57 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 26 at-large bids. This means that there are ELEVEN remaining bids that will go to the ''bubble'' teams that I have listed below. Out of the 57 that I have found, 29 come from major conferences and 28 from minor ones. A lot can change over the next few weeks...
SEC (4)
Projected Champion: #13 Florida (21-5, 10-2)
Should be in: #18 Vanderbilt (20-6, 8-4), #22 Kentucky (19-7, 7-5), Tennessee (16-11, 6-6)
Bubble: Georgia (18-8, 7-5), #29 Alabama (18-8, 10-2)
Analysis: As always we start off with the SEC, as we should because we represent a Florida Gator site!
Gators look in great shape to get a top four seed. They have four remaining conference games, all against NCAA ready teams: vs Georgia, at Kentucky, vs Alabama, and at Vanderbilt. If they go at least 3-1 and win the conference tourney, I could see them as high as a two seed. Realistically, they will probably go 2-2. I see them as a three seed at this point.
As for the rest of the conference, I currently have three other teams that should be in. Vandy and Kentucky are currently ranked in the top-25. Tennessee got off to a tremendous start this year, but they have really struggled as of late, and already have 11 losses. I still think their early season success will get them in, but watch out if they continue their hard luck for the rest of the season.
I think Georgia has a very good shot of making the tournament, especially if they knock off Florida early this week. All eight of their losses are to teams in the RPI top-50. Former Nevada coach Mark Fox has turned around the Georgia program. Alabama is 10-2 in conference play, and are really peaking right now. Unfortunately they had some really really bad losses early in the season. Former Gator assistant Anthony Grant has them on track.
ACC (3)
Projected Champion: #1 Duke (24-2, 11-1)
Should be in: #19 North Carolina (20-6, 10-2), #30 Florida St (19-7, 9-3)
Bubble: Virginia Tech (17-8, 7-5), Clemson (17-9, 6-6), Boston College (16-10, 6-6)
Analysis: Back to the good ol' days of the ACC with Duke and UNC clearly ahead of everyone else in conference. Defending national champion Duke looks poised to make a deep run in this year's tournament. UNC is back after missing to big dance last year. Florida St looks like they have their bid on lock, but not having their top player Chris Singleton will hurt their tournament run.
Other than those three teams, the ACC is really lacking. There is a chance that VT, Clemson, and BC get in, but they'll have to go on a deep conference tournament run.
Big East (9)
Projected Champion: #4 Pittsburgh (24-3, 12-2)
Should be in: #9 Notre Dame (21-5, 10-4), #11 Georgetown (21-6, 10-5), #15 Villanova (21-6, 9-5), #16 Louisville (20-7, 9-5), #17 Syracuse (22-6, 9-6), #14 Connecticut (20-6, 8-6), #23 St Johns (17-9, 9-5), #28 West Virginia (17-9, 8-6)
Bubble: Cincinnati (21-6, 8-6), Marquette (16-11, 7-7)
Analysis: The Big East is definitely the toughest conference to play in, because it seems like you are playing a top-25 team every night. Villanova, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn & Georgetown look to be the teams I see going deep in the tourney. I have Pittsburgh on top, even though they lost to St Johns this weekend.
St Johns has been fantastic at home this year. They have five wins over top-13 teams. They should be in as well. West Virginia got a big win against Notre Dame this weekend. Big help to their bid chances.
Cincy needs one more big marquee win to push them over the hump. Marquette looks like they are right on the edge of the bubble.
Big Ten+1 (4)
Projected Champion: #2 Ohio St (25-2, 12-2)
Should be in: #8 Purdue (22-5, 11-3), #12 Wisconsin (19-6, 9-4), Illinois (17-10, 7-7)
Bubble: Minnesota (17-9, 6-8), Michigan St (15-11, 7-7), Penn St (14-11, 7-7)
Analysis: Ohio St is clearly the best team in this conference, even with their two losses in the last three to Wisconsin and Purdue. Purdue is for real. Imagine how they'd be if they had Robbie Hummel. Wisconsin is killer at home, but has struggled at times on the road.
The bubble includes Illinois, Michigan St, Minnesota, and Penn St. Realistically Illinois, Michigan St, & Minnesota are the two that have a legit chance. I can't believe that MSU has fallen so far from consecutive final four trips.
Big 12 (4)
Projected Champion: #3 Kansas (25-2, 10-2)
Should be in: #5 Texas (23-4, 11-1), #20 Missouri (21-6, 7-5), #21 Texas A&M (21-5, 8-4)
Bubble: Kansas St (18-9, 6-6), Baylor (17-9, 6-6), Nebraska (18-8, 6-6)
Analysis: Kansas and Texas are neck and neck for the conference title. With a gun to my head, I'd pick Kansas. Both teams are true national title contenders. Texas A&M and Mizzou are playing well and have a hold on their bids.
Kansas St got a huge win this week against Kansas and are back in the thick on things. They have all the talent to make a run. Baylor has been playing well as of late, but need some help. Nebraska has been under the radar until this past weekend when they upset Texas. They also have some work to do.
Pac-10 (3)
Projected Champion: #10 Arizona (23-4, 12-2)
Should be in: #33t UCLA (19-8, 10-4), #31t Washington (18-8, 10-5)
Bubble: none
Analysis: After really struggling as a conference last season, they've stepped it up. Arizona is back as a national player, as Sean Miller has turned around that program. Saturday's game against Washington was one of the most fun to watch this season.
UCLA should be in as they are back to playing competitive basketball. Washington should be in, but probably needs one big win or a deep conference tournament run to make it in.
Other Conferences (28)
Projected Champions (threat teams, 8): #25 Xavier (20-6, 11-1, Atlantic 10), #27 George Mason (23-5, 14-2, Colonial Athletic), UTEP (20-6, 9-4, Conference USA), Butler (20-9, 12-5, Horizon League), Missouri St (21-7, 13-3, Missouri Valley), #6 San Diego St (27-1, 12-1, Mountain West), St Mary's (22-6, 10-2, West Coast), #26 Utah St (25-3, 12-1, Western Athletic)
Projected Champions (non-threat teams, 17): Vermont (America East), #33t Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Montana (Big Sky), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Long Beach St (Big West), #33t Harvard (Ivy League), Fairfield (MAAC), Kent St (Mid-American), Hampton (MEAC), Long Island (Northeast), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Bucknell (Patriot League), Charleston (Southern), McNeese St (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), Oakland (Summit League), Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)
Should be in (3): #24 Temple (20-5, 10-2, Atlantic 10), #7 BYU (25-2, 11-1, Mountain West), #31t UNLV (20-7, 8-5, Mountain West)
Bubble: Richmond (20-7, 9-3, Atlantic 10), Duquesne (17-8, 9-3, Atlantic 10), Dayton (19-9, 7-6, Atlantic 10), Old Dominion (22-6, 12-4, Colonial Athletic), Virginia Commonwealth (21-8, 12-4, Colonial Athletic), Southern Miss (20-6, 9-4, Conference USA), UAB (19-7, 9-4, Conference USA), Memphis (20-7, 8-4, Conference USA), Cleveland St (22-4, 12-4, Horizon League), Valparaiso (20-8, 11-4, Horizon League), Wichita St (22-6, 13-3, Missouri Valley), Northern Iowa (19-10, 10-6, Missouri Valley), Colorado St (18-8, 8-4, Mountain West), Gonzaga (19-9, 9-3, West Coast)
Analysis: From the minor conferences, I have determined that 25 different conference champions and THREE at-large spots are safe right now. I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those from traditionally tough conferences that should make the tourney if they don't win their conference tournament, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences that need to take care of business. The ''threat teams'' and ''should be in'' include ELEVEN teams.
As for the at-larges, I would think UNLV, Temple, & BYU are good enough to make the tourney without winning their conference. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams lose along the way because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.
So to recap, the bubble has TEN spots for 26 teams with realistic chances as of now. These teams include (in no particular order):
Virginia Tech (17-8, 7-5, ACC), Clemson (17-9, 6-6, ACC), Boston College (16-10, 6-6, ACC), Richmond (20-7, 9-3, Atlantic 10), Duquesne (17-8, 9-3, Atlantic 10), Dayton (19-9, 7-6, Atlantic 10), Cincinnati (21-6, 8-6, Big East), Marquette (16-11, 7-7 Big East), Minnesota (17-9, 6-8, Big Ten+1), Michigan St (15-11, 7-7, Big Ten+1), Penn St (14-11, 7-7, Big Ten+1), Kansas St (18-9, 6-6, Big 12), Baylor (17-9, 6-6, Big 12), Nebraska (18-8, 6-6, Big 12), Old Dominion (22-6, 12-4, Colonial Athletic), Virginia Commonwealth (21-8, 12-4, Colonial Athletic), Southern Miss (20-6, 9-4, Conference USA), UAB (19-7, 9-4, Conference USA), Memphis (20-7, 8-4, Conference USA), Cleveland St (22-4, 12-4, Horizon League), Valparaiso (20-8, 11-4, Horizon League), Wichita St (22-6, 13-3, Missouri Valley), Northern Iowa (19-10, 10-6, Missouri Valley), Colorado St (18-8, 8-4, Mountain West), Georgia (18-8, 7-5, SEC), #29 Alabama (18-8, 10-2, SEC), Gonzaga (19-9, 9-3, West Coast)
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