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Now that we are two-thirds of the way through the 2011-12 college basketball season, we look at where we are right now, as teams are knee deep in their conference schedules. Selection Sunday is six weeks away, and teams obviously still have a ton to play for. Remember, there are 68 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 37 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (rankings are current AP poll)...
From the results that follow, I predict that at this point 53 teams are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 22 at-large bids. This means that there are FIFTEEN remaining bids that will go to the ''bubble'' teams that I have listed below. Out of the 53 that I have found, 25 come from major conferences and 28 from minor ones. A lot can change over the next few weeks...
SEC (4)
Projected Champion: #1 Kentucky (23-1, 9-0)
Should be in: #20 Mississippi St (18-5, 5-3), #35t Vanderbilt (16-7, 5-3), #8 Florida (19-4, 7-1)
Work Left to Do: Alabama (15-7, 4-4), Ole Miss (14-8, 4-4), Arkansas (16-7, 4-4)
Analysis: As always we start off with the SEC, since we represent a Florida Gator site!
Gators look in great shape to get a top four seed. They have eight remaining conference games, including two against fellow NCAA tourney hopefuls Kentucky, and one each against Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Arkansas. They now start is a stretch of 5 of 7 games on the road, where the Gators have really struggled. If they can win at least two of three remaining home games, and at least two of five road games, that would leave the Gators at 23-8 and 11-5 in conference. Heading into the conference tourney, they could be in line from anywhere between a 2 and 4 seed for the NCAA tournament, depending on conference tourney finish. We see them as a three seed at this point.
As for the rest of the conference, we currently have three other teams that should be in at this point. Kentucky is the top ranked team in the country and are locks. Vandy and Mississippi St are ranked in the top-25 and are looking to continue their hot start in conference play. Four teams appear to be safe at this point.
I think Alabama has a very good shot of making the tournament, mostly based on the fact that all of their losses, outside of South Carolina, are against really good teams. Plus, they've beaten Maryland, Wichita St, Purdue, VCU, and Georgia Tech out of conference. Also, looking at their final eight games, it's not a stretch to think they can go 6-2. Former Gator assistant Anthony Grant has them back on track.
Arkansas is next in line to join the tourney group, but still need to have some big wins. They've beaten Michigan at home, but other than that they don't have many top-notch wins. This includes losses to Houston, UConn, and Oklahoma out of conference. Their loss to LSU this week really hurt their resume.
Ole Miss is in the discussion as well, but will definitely need to get hot to finish out the season. They need to upset two of their remaining big opponents in Mississippi St, Vandy, and Kentucky, plus a deep conference tourney run to secure a bid. Seems unlikely at this point.
ACC (4)
Projected Champion: #5 North Carolina (20-3, 7-1)
Should be in: #10 Duke (19-4, 6-2), #15 Florida St (16-6, 7-1), #19 Virginia (18-4. 5-3)
Work Left to Do: NC State (17-7, 6-3), #38t Miami (14-7, 5-3)
Analysis: Like last year, the ACC is led by Duke, UNC, and FSU. Florida St looks like they have their bid on lock, after crushing UNC at home, upsetting Duke on the road, and taking down Virginia this past weekend. Virginia is a top-25 team under coach Tony Bennett, and he has them poised for a bid.
There is a chance that NC State and Miami get in, as both have played well as of late. Miami took down Duke in Durham this weekend, and now have that resume building win. But both teams will still need to stay hot down the stretch, as well as a deep conference tournament run.
Big East (6)
Projected Champion: #2 Syracuse (23-1, 10-1)
Should be in: #18 Marquette (20-5, 9-3), #12 Georgetown (18-4, 8-3), West Virginia (16-8, 6-5), #24 Louisville (19-5, 7-4), Connecticut (15-8, 5-6)
Work Left to Do: Seton Hall (15-8, 4-7), Cincinnati (16-7, 6-4), #26 Notre Dame (15-8, 7-3), South Florida (13-10, 6-4), Pittsburgh (15-9, 4-7)
Analysis: The Big East has the most total teams that realistically have a shot at making the tournament. However, the group of teams that actually make it could vary widely depending on how the end of the regular season happens.
Syracuse looks like the only team that is in the real upper echelon of NCAA teams at this point. Marquette, Georgetown, UConn, Louisville, and West Virginia should be in at this point, barring a late season meltdown.
Notre Dame started of slowly, but has a bunch of big wins lately, including Syracuse at home. More than likely, the Irish and Cincy will make it, and maybe even Seton Hall. South Florida & Pitt need to end the season on fire to make it
Big Ten+2 (6)
Projected Champion: #3 Ohio St (20-3, 8-2)
Should be in: #22 Michigan (17-7, 7-4), #21 Wisconsin (18-6, 7-4), #11 Michigan St (18-5, 7-3), #23 Indiana (18-6, 6-6), Illinois (16-7, 5-5)
Work Left to Do: Purdue (15-8, 5-5), Minnesota (17-7, 5-6), Northwestern (14-8, 4-6)
Analysis: Ohio St looks like the best team in this conference, but they are followed closely by Michigan St. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana, who all look poised for a bid. We've also moved Illinois up due to their big win over Michigan St.
The bubble includes Purdue, Minnesota, and Northwestern, and we wouldn't be surprised if two of three get in.
Big 12-2 (3)
Projected Champion: #4 Missouri (22-2, 9-2)
Should be in: #7 Kansas (18-5, 8-2), #6 Baylor (21-2, 8-2)
Work Left to Do: #34 Kansas St (16-6, 5-5), #27 Iowa St (17-6, 7-3), Texas (15-9, 5-6)
Analysis: It's a three team race now that we're halfway done with conference play. We feel that Missouri has a slight lead over Kansas and Baylor, but but the difference between the three is minuscule.
Kansas St has not played well at all lately, and we have them moving back to the bubble pack. Iowa St upset Kansas at last this weekend, and should be on the right side of the bubble. Texas still has a realistic shot at making the tournament, but they will have to score some upsets along the way.
Pac-12 (2)
Projected Champion: Washington (16-7, 9-2)
Should be in: California (18-6, 8-3)
Work Left to Do: Stanford (16-7, 6-5), Oregon (16-7, 7-4), Colorado (16-7, 8-3), Arizona (16-8, 7-4)
Analysis: Unlike last season, there is no clear cut national contender as of this point. We see six teams that will factor in the conference championship discussion. Right now we believe that Washington is playing the best basketball and will win the auto-bid. Also we believe that California win win enough down the stretch to feel confident about their ability to get a bid.
Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, and Arizona all can make the tournament, but they must not falter in games they should handily win. More than likely, the conference will get somewhere between two and four bids.
Other Conferences (28)
Projected Champions (should secure bid regardless, 7): #29 Temple (17-5, 6-2, Atlantic 10), #28 Southern Miss (20-3, 7-1, Conference USA), #25 Harvard (20-2, 6-0, Ivy League), #17 Creighton (21-3, 11-2, Missouri Valley), #14 UNLV (21-4, 5-2, Mountain West), #9 Murray State (23-0, 11-0, Ohio Valley), #16 St Mary's (22-2, 11-0, West Coast)
Projected Champions (must win conference or bubble team*, 18): Stony Brook/Vermont (America East), Belmont/Mercer (Atlantic Sun), Weber St/Montana (Big Sky), UNC-Asheville/Coastal Carolina (Big South), #32 Long Beach St* (Big West), Virginia Commonwealth*/George Mason/Drexel (Colonial Athletic), #35t Cleveland St*/Valparaiso (Horizon League), Iona*/Loyola/Manhattan (MAAC), Akron/Ohio (Mid-American), Norfolk St (MEAC), LIU Brooklyn/Wagner (Northeast), Bucknell/Lehigh (Patriot League), Davidson* (Southern), Texas-Arlington/Northwestern St (Southland), Mississippi Valley St/Southern (SWAC), Oral Roberts*/South Dakota St (Summit League), Middle Tennessee* (Sun Belt), Nevada*/New Mexico St (Western Athletic)
Should be in (3): #31 Wichita St (20-4, 11-2, Missouri Valley), #13 San Diego St (20-3, 6-1, Mountain West), #30 Gonzaga (18-4, 8-2, West Coast)
Work Left to Do: Xavier (15-8, 6-3, Atlantic 10), Massachusetts (17-6, 6-3, Atlantic 10), La Salle (17-7, 6-3, Atlantic 10), Saint Louis (18-5, 6-3, Atlantic 10), St Joseph's (15-9, 5-4, Atlantic 10), Memphis (16-7, 6-2, Conference USA), UCF (17-6, 6-3, Conference USA), Marshall (14-9, 5-4, Conference USA), Tulsa (14-9, 7-2, Conference USA), #33 New Mexico (19-4, 5-2, Mountain West), Wyoming (18-5, 4-3, Mountain West), Colorado St (15-7, 4-3, Mountain West), #38t Brigham Young (20-6, 8-3, West Coast)
Analysis: From the minor conferences, I have determined that 25 different conference champions and FOUR at-large spots are safe right now. I have broken the champions into two categories: the first will be those from traditionally tough conferences that will have a very strong case to make the tourney if they don't win their conference tournament, and the second are those in traditionally small conferences that need to take care of business. The ''threat teams'' and ''should be in'' include TWELVE teams.
As for the at-larges, I would think Temple, Wichita St, San Diego St, & Gonzaga are good enough to make the tourney without winning their conference. Teams on the bubble are hoping that these teams lose along the way because this is where you usually find your bubble busters year-in and year-out.
Bubble Recap
So to recap, the bubble has FIFTEEN spots for 33 teams with realistic chances as of now. These teams include (in no order):
Alabama (15-7, 4-4, SEC)
Ole Miss (14-8, 4-4, SEC)
Arkansas (16-7, 4-4, SEC)
NC State (17-7, 6-3, ACC)
Miami (14-7, 5-3, ACC)
Seton Hall (15-8, 4-7, Big East)
Cincinnati (16-7, 6-4, Big East)
Notre Dame (15-8, 7-3, Big East)
South Florida (13-10, 6-4, Big East)
Pittsburgh (15-9, 4-7, Big East)
Purdue (15-8, 5-5, Big Ten+2)
Minnesota (17-7, 5-6, Big Ten+2)
Northwestern (14-8, 4-6, Big Ten+2)
Kansas St (16-6, 5-5, Big 12-2)
Iowa St (17-6, 7-3, Big 12-2)
Texas (15-9, 5-6, Big 12-2)
Stanford (16-7, 6-5, Pac-12)
Oregon (16-7, 7-4, Pac-12)
Colorado (16-7, 8-3, Pac-12)
Arizona (16-8, 7-4, Pac-12)
Xavier (15-8, 6-3, Atlantic 10)
Massachusetts (17-6, 6-3, Atlantic 10)
La Salle (17-7, 6-3, Atlantic 10)
Saint Louis (18-5, 6-3, Atlantic 10)
St Joseph's (15-9, 5-4, Atlantic 10)
Memphis (16-7, 6-2, Conference USA)
UCF (17-6, 6-3, Conference USA)
Marshall (14-9, 5-4, Conference USA)
Tulsa (14-9, 7-2, Conference USA)
New Mexico (19-4, 5-2, Mountain West)
Wyoming (18-5, 4-3, Mountain West)
Colorado St (15-7, 4-3, Mountain West)
Brigham Young (20-6, 8-3, West Coast) |
