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College Basketball Tourney Bubble Watch: 3-4-13 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Chris Canada   
Monday, 04 March 2013

The regular season is over in one week, and conference tourneys are up around the bend. We are now two weeks away from selection Sunday. Some conference tournaments start this week, while most start next week. Remember, there are 68 spots available, comprised of 31 automatic bids to conference champions and 37 at-large bids. Here is a comprehensive look at the major leagues in Division-I (rankings are current AP poll)...

From the results that follow, we predict that at this point 57 bids are safe, which includes 31 auto-bids and 26 at-large bids. This means that there are ELEVEN remaining bids that will go to the ''bubble'' teams that we have listed below. Out of the 57 that we have found, 26 come from the ''Big-6'' conferences and 31 from minor ones. A lot can change over the two weeks...

Projected Conference Champs - Locks (11 Teams)

Atlantic 10+6: #16 St. Louis
ACC: #6 Miami
Big XII-2: #4 Kansas
Big East: #8 Louisville
Big Ten+2: #2 Indiana
Conference USA: #25 Memphis
MVC: #34 Creighton
Mountain West: #12 New Mexico
Pac 12: #23 UCLA
SEC: #11 Florida
West Coast: #1 Gonzaga

Projected Conference Champs - Must Win Conference (14 Teams)

America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Mercer/Florida Gulf Coast
Big Sky: Montana/Weber State
Big South: High Point/Charleston Southern
Big West: Long Beach State
Colonial: Northeastern
Horizon: Valparaiso/Detroit
Ivy: Princeton/Harvard
MAAC: Niagara/Rider
MEAC: Norfolk State/North Carolina Central
Northeast: Robert Morris
Patriot: Bucknell
SWAC: Texas Southern/Southern
Summit: Western Illinois/South Dakota State

Projected Conference Champs - On Bubble If Upset (6 Teams)

MAC: #36t Akron
Ohio Valley: #38 Belmont
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Sun Belt: #35 Middle Tennessee
WAC: #27 Louisiana Tech

At-Large - Locks (26 Teams)

Atlantic 10+6: #31 Butler, #21 VCU
ACC: #3 Duke, #26 UNC, NC State
Big XII-2: #9 Kansas State, #13 Oklahoma State
Big East: #5 Georgetown, #15 Marquette, #24 Notre Dame, #20 Pittsburgh, #17 Syracuse
Big Ten+2: #10 Michigan State, #22 Wisconsin, #14 Ohio State, #7 Michigan, #32 Illinois, #33 Minnesota
Mountain West: #39 Colorado State, #29 UNLV, San Diego State
Pac 12: #19 Oregon, #18 Arizona, #30 California
SEC: #36t Missouri
WCC: #28 St. Mary's

At-Large - On Bubble (25 Teams)

Atlantic 10+6: La Salle, Temple, UMass
ACC: Virginia, Maryland
Big XII-2: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor
Big East: Villanova, Cincinnati, St. Johns
Big Ten+2: Iowa
Conference USA: Southern Miss
MAC: Ohio
MVC: Wichita State
Mountain West: Boise State
Pac 12: Colorado, Arizona State
SEC: Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee
West Coast: BYU, Santa Clara

Bubble Recap

To recap, the bubble has ELEVEN spots for 25 teams with realistic chances as of now. The available spots could shrink if some projected conference champs do not win their conference tournaments. If Auto-Bid bubble teams do not win their conference tournaments, they will be added to this list.

Current bubble teams include (in order):

Oklahoma (19-9, 10-6, RPI: 22, SOS: 6, Big XII-2)
Colorado (19-9, 9-7, RPI: 29, SOS: 17, Pac 12)
Cincinnati (20-9, 8-8, RPI: 48, SOS: 25, Big East)
Wichita State (24-7, 12-6, RPI: 40, SOS: 99, MVC)
La Salle (20-7, 10-4, RPI: 39, SOS: 95, Atlantic 10+6)
Temple (21-8, 9-5, RPI: 42, SOS: 51, Atlantic 10+6)
Boise State (20-8, 8-6, RPI: 44, SOS: 87, Mountain West)
Iowa State (19-10, 9-7, RPI: 53, SOS: 65, Big XII-2)
Tennessee (17-11, 9-7, RPI: 56, SOS: 26, SEC)
Kentucky (20-9, 11-5, RPI: 51, SOS: 68, SEC)
Virginia (20-9, 10-6, RPI: 62, SOS: 133, ACC)

------------------------------------------------------------------- CUT LINE

Villanova (18-12, 9-8, RPI:55, SOS: 30, Big East)
Southern Miss (22-7, 11-3, RPI: 36, SOS: 79, Conference USA)
Alabama (19-10, 11-5, RPI: 59, SOS: 96, SEC)
Baylor (17-12, 8-8, RPI: 60, SOS: 24, Big XII-2)
Ole Miss (21-8, 10-6, RPI: 58, SOS: 165, SEC)
Arkansas (18-11, 9-7, RPI: 75, SOS: 77, SEC)
St. Johns (16-12, 8-8, RPI: 66, SOS: 36, Big East)
UMass (18-9, 8-6, RPI: 54, SOS: 75, Atlantic 10+6)
Maryland (20-9, 8-8, RPI: 68, SOS: 127, ACC)
BYU (21-10, 10-6, RPI: 61, SOS: 98, WCC)
Iowa (18-11, 7-9, RPI: 86, SOS: 120, Big Ten+2)
Arizona State (20-10, 9-8, RPI: 92, SOS: 132, Pac 12)
Ohio (21-8, 12-2, RPI: 74, SOS: 154, MAC)
Santa Clara (21-10, 9-7, RPI: 89, SOS: 125, WCC)

Last Updated ( Monday, 04 March 2013 )
 
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