This last week had some major upsets and muddied the waters a bit. Some conference pictures are extremely clear, and others aren’t. The title game, of course, could still swing wildly, as we see every year (see last year, or even last week). And just projecting the 10 BCS participants (regardless of who goes where) is no easy task. See below to get the projections from some of our Gatorsfirst.com contributors...

Before getting to the projections, it is important to have a little knowledge of the selection process. The entire process is described in great detail here. But the important points are:

1. Obviously the #1 and #2 make the BCS Championship game in Pasadena. But there are also the conference tie-ins, which pretty much everyone knows as well:
   
   • Sugar - SEC Champ v BCS at-large
   • Rose - Big Ten Champ v Pac 10 Champ
   • Orange - ACC Champ v BCS at-large
   • Fiesta - Big 12 Champ v BCS at-large
   • The Big East Champ has to be chosen as one of the at-larges
   • Notre Dame has to be chosen as an at-large if they are in the top 8 of the BCS
   • One non-BCS conference champ has to be chosen if they are in the top 12 OR the top 16 if the non-BCS champion’s rank is higher than any of the BCS conference champions.
2. No conference can have 3 teams chosen in a BCS bowl.
3. The at-large pool, in most realistic scenarios, is the top 14 of the BCS final standings. More detailed rules are given in the link above. The current BCS standings are here.
4. The first at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #1 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Fiesta picked Texas first, after losing Oklahoma to the BCS Championship game, as the Sooners were #1). If the #1 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
5. The second at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #2 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Sugar picked Alabama second for losing Florida to the BCS Championship game, as the gators were #2). If the #2 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
6. The other selections follow this order for games played in 2009: Orange, Fiesta, and then Sugar. Note that the Rose has two automatic tie-ins, so would be complete before this step. This order is based on the rotation of the BCS Championship game among the four bowls.

With that out of the way, here are our picks with a short explanation. These are not necessarily what we want to happen, but what we think will happen:

BCS Championship

James: Florida vs. Texas – I predicted this matchup before the season. As did half of the free world. And some of the commies.

Chris: Florida vs Texas – The #1 and #2 teams in the BCS get the auto bid to this game in Pasadena. Unless Texas loses to an inferior opponent over the next few weeks, they will play the winner of the Florida/Alabama SEC championship game. All three teams are clearly better than everyone else in the country.


With both of us taking Florida and Texas, the new order for bowl selections would be (read below):

1. Any conference tie-in – Rose #1 & #2 (Pac-10 & Big Ten+1) & Orange #1 (ACC)
   • James selects Oregon, Ohio State, & Georgia Tech; Chris selects Oregon, Ohio State, & Georgia Tech
2. Sugar #1 (lost #1 Florida)
   • James selects Alabama; Chris selects Alabama
3. Fiesta #1 (lost #2 Texas)
   • James selects USC; Chris selects USC
4. Orange #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
   • James selects Cincinnati; Chris selects TCU
5. Fiesta #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
   • James selects Boise State; Chris selects Miami (FL)
6. Sugar #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
   • James selects Miami; Chris selects Cincinnati

Rose Bowl

James: Oregon v. Ohio State – Here's a surprise: a Pac-10 team blows out a Big Ten team in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State is going to beat Iowa. I wasn't sure they'd beat Penn State, but they can handle piling on the reeling Hawkeyes. Should Kirk Ferentz have taken an NFL job last week, or does it matter? Ducks over Arizona this weekend in a bounce-back game helps their cause.

Chris: Oregon vs Ohio State – Auto bids go to the Pac-10 and Big Ten+1 champions, respectively. Last week I said it would take a miracle to prevent Iowa from reaching the Rose bowl. Well that miracle happened in the form of an injury to QB Ricky Stanzi and a loss to Northwestern at home. They have a tough road game at Ohio State this weekend in a game that should determine the Big Ten+1 champion. I think Ohio State takes care of business this weekend, and next against flailing Michigan.

Oregon wasn’t a shoo-in for the Pac-10 championship, and last week's lose to Stanford really hurt their chances. It seems like the conference title is back up for grabs. Arizona is now in a tie for first place. However, they still have to play Oregon, USC, Cal, & ASU. I still think that the winner of the Airzona/Oregon game should be the Pac-10 representative.

Orange Bowl

James: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati – I think the Bearcats' high-powered passing game gets the viewers' attention and the contrast with Georgia Tech's triple-option game would be cool. But the main reason they land here is because they have the future coach of Notre Dame on their sidelines, and all the Irish fans could make the 300-mile drive down to Miami from Jacksonville (and the Gator Bowl) to meet their newest savior. Georgia Tech hasn't clinched the conference title yet, but I think they will.

Chris: Georgia Tech vs TCU – The ACC winner gets the auto bid into this game. I think Georgia Tech ends up beating Clemson in the conference championship game. Although the city of Miami would love to see Miami jump ahead of GT, I just don’t see the Yellow Jackets losing to Duke.

As for their opponent, the Orange bowl will have the third pick, due to the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl losing their conference tie-ins to the BCS NC game. With Alabama (Sugar) and USC (Fiesta) already taken, they’ll be picking from a group that’ll probably consist of undefeateds Cincy/TCU/Boise, 1-loss Houston, and 2-loss Miami/Pitt/Oklahoma St/Iowa/Penn State. I think at this point, TCU would be a great choice for them. They seem to have everything rolling, and could be the best team outside of top-3.

Fiesta Bowl

James: USC v. Boise State – I think the Fiesta Bowl grabs USC to replace Texas (as I projected last week, as well). Boise State and the Fiesta have great memories of one another, and I am picking Utah to pull off the upset in Ft. Worth this weekend- making Boise State the recipient of the non-AQ teams.

Chris: USC vs Miami (FL) – The Fiesta bowl will have the second pick, due to the loss of Big XII champion to the BCS NC game. Penn State crapped the bed last week and that throws this game into flux. There are pretty much four spots left, for upwards of 13 remaining teams. They consist of the Big East winner (winner of Cincy/Pitt/WVU triangle, more than likely Cincy), highest ranked non-BCS team (TCU/Boise/Houston/Utah, more than likely TCU), and a host of at large teams (Miami/Pitt/Boise/Penn St/Iowa/Houston/Utah/Okie State/USC/Zona)

With that said, I think the Fiesta Bowl goes with a regional team that qualifies or a nationally recognized powerhouse with a large and loyal fan base. If USC wins out and is sitting at 10-2, the Fiesta Bowl committee would more than likely pick them, even with an undefeated TCU available at this point. As for their opponent, they’ll have to choose from undefeateds Cincy/Boise, 1-loss Houston, and 2-loss Miami/Pitt/Oklahoma St/Iowa/Penn State. If Miami wins out, I think they have the glitter and glitz to draw a big audience, and let's face it, the bowl games are all about money. Else we'd have a playoff. The Fiesta Bowl will select them over some of the other (probably more deserving) teams.

Sugar Bowl

James: Alabama v. Miami (FL) – Alabama is the easy choice, as the replacement for the Sugar Bowl missing out on #1 Florida (in this scenario). As much as I hate to pick Miami here, at this point there is no other clear choice. I can't imagine a second Big East team being desirable, Notre Dame won't be eligible for selection, and Penn State might not be able to rebound enough to get into the top 14. I don't feel great about this choice, and think the Canes could lose another game (and their eligibility for this slot).

Chris: Alabama vs Cincinnati – The loser of the SEC championship game will be the choice here. The second pick will be made for them as they’ll have to take the last auto-bid, which is the Big East champion. That’s not bad if it’s an undefeated Cincinnati. However, if Pitt upsets them, this game goes right down the tubes...