Now that the calendar has hit November, one could expect to take a stab at projecting the BCS Bowls. Some conference pictures are extremely clear, and others aren’t. The title game, of course, could still swing wildly, as we see every year (see last year). And just projecting the 10 BCS participants (regardless of who goes where) is no easy task. See below to get the projections from some of our Gatorsfirst.com contributors...

Before getting to the projections, it is important to have a little knowledge of the selection process. The entire process is described in great detail here. But the important points are:

1. Obviously the #1 and #2 make the BCS Championship game in Pasadena. But there are also the conference tie-ins, which pretty much everyone knows as well: 
   •   Sugar - SEC Champ v BCS at-large
   • Rose - Big Ten Champ v Pac 10 Champ
   • Orange - ACC Champ v BCS at-large
   • Fiesta - Big 12 Champ v BCS at-large
   • The Big East Champ has to be chosen as one of the at-larges
   • Notre Dame has to be chosen as an at-large if they are in the top 8 of the BCS
   • One non-BCS conference champ has to be chosen if they are in the top 12 OR the top 16 if the non-BCS champion’s rank is higher than any of the BCS conference champions.  
2. No conference can have 3 teams chosen in a BCS bowl.
3. The at-large pool, in most realistic scenarios, is the top 14 of the BCS final standings. More detailed rules are given in the link above. The current BCS standings are here. 
4. The first at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #1 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Fiesta picked Texas first, after losing Oklahoma to the BCS Championship game, as the Sooners were #1). If the #1 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
5. The second at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #2 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Sugar picked Alabama second for losing Florida to the BCS Championship game, as the gators were #2). If the #2 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
6. The other selections follow this order for games played in 2009: Orange, Fiesta, and then Sugar. Note that the Rose has two automatic tie-ins, so would be complete before this step. This order is based on the rotation of the BCS Championship game among the four bowls.

With that out of the way, here are our picks with a short explanation. These are not necessarily what we want to happen, but what we think will happen:

BCS Championship

James: Florida v. Texas – It’s close, but there’s a clear top 3 teams, and what’s the fun in picking against my team at this point?  I don’t see a good reason not to.

Chris: Florida vs Texas – The #1 and #2 teams in the BCS get the auto bid to this game in Pasadena. I think it’s clearly apparent that Texas will play the winner of the Florida/Alabama SEC championship game. All three teams are clearly better than everyone else in the country.

I was torn on whether Alabama or Texas should be #2 behind the Gators, but I think the combination of Bama looking vulnerable against South Carolina and Tennessee and the Longhorns looking dominant against Mizzou and Okie State pretty much seals it for me. Plus, Texas plays a bunch of nobodies to wrap up the season, including a potential K-State or Nebraska matchup in the Big XII championship. Bama, on the other hand, still has LSU and Florida left.


With both of us taking Florida and Texas, the new order for bowl selections would be (read below):

1. Any conference tie-in – Rose #1 & #2 (Pac-10 & Big Ten+1) & Orange #1 (ACC)
   • Both select Oregon, Iowa, & Georgia Tech
2. Sugar #1 (lost #1 Florida)
   • Both select Alabama
3. Fiesta #1 (lost #2 Texas)
   • James selects USC, Chris selects Penn State
4. Orange #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
   • James selects Penn State, Chris selects USC
5. Fiesta #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
   • Both select TCU
6. Sugar #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
   • Both select Cincinnati

Rose Bowl

James: Iowa v. Oregon – Oregon has a 2-game lead with 4 to play over everyone in the Pac-10 except Arizona.  The Wildcats still have to play Oregon, @USC, @Cal, and @ASU.  If they can avoid the let-down game this weekend, Oregon has a great chance of clinching the Pac-10 title.  If Penn State beats Ohio State this weekend (and I think it happens), Iowa would hold essentially a 2-game lead over everyone else in the Big Ten by holding serve against Northwestern.  This matchup is very close to being a lock at this point.

Chris: Oregon vs Iowa – Auto bids go to the Pac-10 and Big Ten+1 champions, respectively. And barring some miracle as the top of the BCS standings, Iowa will end up outside of the championship game, regardless of whether or not they finish undefeated. They still have a tough road game at Ohio State next weekend. However, even with a loss to OSU, they would still probably own a conference tiebreaker, because I think Penn State will defeat OSU this weekend.

Oregon isn’t a shoe-in for the Pac-10 championship as many people might think. They are undefeated in league play, as their only loss was opening night at Boise. However, they still have a tough road game remaining at one-loss Arizona. The winner of that game should be the Pac-10 representative.

Orange Bowl

James: Penn State v. Georgia Tech – I think GT gets the ACC’s auto-bid (I’m a sucker for that offense), and with the first pick (after the bowls that lose auto-bids to the BCS Championship) I think the Orange Bowl takes Penn State.  The bowl committees are going to be looking at a pool of eligible teams highlighted by: TCU (non-AQ auto-bid), Cincinnati (Big East auto-bid), Alabama, USC, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and possibly Notre Dame (if they can get into the top 14 and win 9 games).  In my scenario, Alabama and USC are not available for the Orange Bowl to pick, so they’ll settle for Joe Pa.

Chris: Georgia Tech vs USC – The ACC winner gets the auto bid into this game. I think Georgia Tech ends up beating Clemson in the conference championship game. Although the city of Miami would love to see Miami jump ahead of GT, I just don’t see the Yellow Jackets losing to Duke.

As for their opponent, the Orange bowl will have the third pick, due to the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl losing their conference tie-ins to the BCS NC game. With Alabama (Sugar) and Penn State (Fiesta) already taken, they’ll be picking from a group that’ll probably consist of undefeateds Cincy/TCU/Boise, 1-loss Houston, and 2-loss Miami/USC/Cal/Oklahoma St. As much as it pains me to say this, I think if USC is available at 10-2, the Orange Bowl will jump at the chance, mostly to draw a bigger crowd and a higher TV audience. I hate that I just had to type that. What makes this even worse is that if Norte Dame somehow wins out and makes it into the top-8 of the BCS standings (highly unlikely, but still), they are guaranteed a spot here. I will now light myself on fire...

Fiesta Bowl

James: USC v. TCU – After Texas goes to the BCS game, the Fiesta Bowl gets it’s pick of the at-large pool.  USC is easily the best name for it to go after, since Alabama is off the table.  As far as Big XII affiliation: Oklahoma will probably not qualify, and Oklahoma State lacks the draw of the Trojans.  The Horned Frogs will certainly be able to earn some respect with this matchup.  I am projecting TCU to finish the season unbeaten and claim the non-AQ automatic bid.

Chris: Penn State vs TCU – This is where this year’s BCS gets tricky. There are pretty much four spots left, for upwards of 14 remaining teams. They consist of the Big East winner (winner of Cincy/Pitt/WVU triangle, more than likely Cincy), highest ranked undefeated non-BCS team (TCU/Boise/Houston/Utah, more than likely TCU), a one loss Big Ten+1 team (winner of Penn St/Ohio St, more than likely Penn St), and an at large (Miami/Pitt/Boise/Ohio St/Houston/Utah/ND/Okie State/USC/Cal/Zona)

With that said, I think the Fiesta Bowl goes with a regional team that qualifies or a nationally recognized powerhouse with a large and loyal fan base. If Penn State wins out and is sitting at 11-1, there’s no way the Fiesta Bowl committee can’t invite them, right? Even with a 10-2 USC or an undefeated TCU available at this time?

As for their opponent, they’ll only have TCU & Cincy left to choose from. They’ll take the regional team in TCU. That would be a great game.

Sugar Bowl

James: Alabama v. Cincinnati – I am projecting #1 Florida to remain that way- meaning the Sugar Bowl gets the first stab at the at-large teams.  In this scenario, they’ll stick with conference affiliation and pick the Crimson Tide again.  The Bearcats will win an auto-bid for rolling through the Big East, but I think they wind up here (as the last pick), because I think the Fiesta Bowl chooses the more western of these two auto-bids.  Even though Cincy is in an AQ conference, there really isn’t much of a difference in the national following of those two teams.

Chris: Alabama vs Cincinnati – I think Alabama is the no-brainer choice here, unless LSU upsets them this weekend and knocks them out of the SEC West race. However, they should prevail.

The second pick will be made for them as they’ll have to take the Big East champion. That’s not bad if it’s an undefeated Cincinnati. However, if Pitt upsets them, this game goes right down the tubes...