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With Miami, Iowa, USC, Houston, and Utah all losing, the at-large spots are now all up for grabs. Some conference pictures are extremely clear, and others aren’t. The title game, of course, could still swing wildly, as we see every year (see last year). And just projecting the 10 BCS participants (regardless of who goes where) is no easy task. See below to get the projections from some of our Gatorsfirst.com contributors...
Before getting to the projections, it is important to have a little knowledge of the selection process. The entire process is described in great detail here. But the important points are:
- Obviously the #1 and #2 make the BCS Championship game in Pasadena. But there are also the conference tie-ins, which pretty much everyone knows as well:
- Sugar - SEC Champ v BCS at-large
- Rose - Big Ten Champ v Pac 10 Champ
- Orange - ACC Champ v BCS at-large
- Fiesta - Big 12 Champ v BCS at-large
- The Big East Champ has to be chosen as one of the at-larges
- Notre Dame has to be chosen as an at-large if they are in the top 8 of the BCS
- One non-BCS conference champ has to be chosen if they are in the top 12 OR the top 16 if the non-BCS champion’s rank is higher than any of the BCS conference champions.
- No conference can have 3 teams chosen in a BCS bowl.
- The at-large pool, in most realistic scenarios, is the top 14 of the BCS final standings. More detailed rules are given in the link above. The current BCS standings are here.
- The first at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #1 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Fiesta picked Texas first, after losing Oklahoma to the BCS Championship game, as the Sooners were #1). If the #1 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
- The second at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #2 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Sugar picked Alabama second for losing Florida to the BCS Championship game, as the gators were #2). If the #2 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
- The other selections follow this order for games played in 2009: Orange, Fiesta, and then Sugar. Note that the Rose has two automatic tie-ins, so would be complete before this step. This order is based on the rotation of the BCS Championship game among the four bowls.
With that out of the way, here are our picks with a short explanation. These are not necessarily what we want to happen, but what we think will happen:
BCS Championship
James: Florida vs. Texas – I predicted this matchup before the season. As did half of the free world. And some of the commies.
Chris: Florida vs Texas – The #1 and #2 teams in the BCS get the auto bid to this game in Pasadena. Unless Texas loses to an inferior opponent over the next few weeks, they will play the winner of the Florida/Alabama SEC championship game. All three teams are clearly better than everyone else in the country.
With both of us taking Florida and Texas, the new order for bowl selections would be (read below):
- Any conference tie-in – Rose #1 & #2 (Pac-10 & Big Ten+1) & Orange #1 (ACC)
- James selects Oregon, Ohio State, & Georgia Tech; Chris selects Oregon, Ohio State, & Georgia Tech
- Sugar #1 (lost #1 Florida)
- James selects Alabama; Chris selects Alabama
- Fiesta #1 (lost #2 Texas)
- James selects Cincinnati; Chris selects TCU
- Orange #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
- James selects Penn State; Chris selects Iowa
- Fiesta #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
- James selects Virginia Tech; Chris selects Cincinnati
- Sugar #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
- James selects TCU; Chris selects Boise State
Rose Bowl
James: Oregon v. Ohio State – I still think Oregon pulls it off. And still think Chip Kelly is man-crush worthy. They got some help this past weekend with Arizona and Cal both losing, but the Stanford loss still means they can't afford a loss to the Wildcats or the Beavers.
Chris: Oregon vs Ohio State – Auto bids go to the Pac-10 and Big Ten+1 champions, respectively. Ohio State secured their bid with a win over Iowa last week, regardless of the outcome of next week's Michigan game.
Oregon is in the driver's seat for Pac-10 bid. They are the only team with only one conference loss. However, they still have tough games at Arizona and the finale against Oregon State. I think they have the talent to win both of those games. So as of now they are my choice. However, if they slip up, a messy tiebreaker situation could arise with Arizona, Stanford, & OSU all there with only two conference losses.
Orange Bowl
James: Georgia Tech vs. Penn State – I love me the Paul Johnson offense. I think Georgia Tech wraps it up, but if I've learned anything about conference championship games over the years, it's that anything can happen in those. Penn State is an easy at-large selection, as recent losses by USC, Arizona, and Utah allow more teams to sneak into the back-end of the top 14. The Nittany Lions brought a lot of fans to South Florida five years ago.
Chris: Georgia Tech vs Iowa – The ACC winner gets the auto bid into this game. I think Georgia Tech ends up beating Clemson in the conference championship game. They locked up their division with a win over Duke this weekend. However, Clemson is playing some really good ball right now. So look for that game to be as exciting as the first earlier this year.
As for their opponent, the Orange bowl will have the third pick, due to the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta Bowl losing their conference tie-ins to the BCS NC game. With Alabama (Sugar) and TCU (Fiesta) already taken, they’ll be picking from a group that’ll probably consist of undefeateds Cincy/Boise, and 2-loss Pitt/Oklahoma St/Iowa/Penn State. Thinking that the BCS schools will bring more fans, I think the choice is Iowa, although they've lost their last two. They have to have the edge over Penn state, who they beat this year. However, if Oklahoma State romps Oklahoma to end the season, watch out!
Fiesta Bowl
James: Cincinnati v. Virginia Tech – I started a theory a week ago involving the Bearcats being among the first (non-SEC) at-large selections, as the world tunes in to see the next Notre Dame coach in action. It is more likely than last week that they'll come for Brian Kelly, and they become an even more desirable pick with USC out of contention for the 18th spot. I think Virginia Tech moves into the top 14 by the end of the season, and they are well-known for bringing fans to bowl games. I don't really like not assigning a more regional team to this game, but I'm sure these picks will change drastically again next week.
Chris: TCU vs Cincinnati – The Fiesta bowl will have the second pick, due to the loss of Big XII champion to the BCS NC game. There are pretty much four spots left, for upwards of 7 remaining teams. They consist of the Big East winner (winner of Cincy/Pitt, more than likely Cincy), highest ranked non-BCS team (TCU/Boise, more than likely TCU), and a host of at large teams (Pitt/Boise/Penn St/Iowa/Okie State)
With that said, I think the Fiesta Bowl goes with a regional team that qualifies or a nationally recognized powerhouse with a large and loyal fan base. TCU made the leap into the &teams that can beat anyone on any given day& category with their slaughter of Utah last week. They are really good.
As for their opponent, they’ll have to choose from probable undefeateds Cincy/Boise, and probable 2-loss Pitt/Oklahoma St/Penn State. Both Cincy and Boise should be undefeated. In other years, a 1-loss BCS or very strong 2-loss BCS would jump both for this spot. However, it's hard to make an argument against either. At this point, you'd have to think Cincy would take this spot.
Sugar Bowl
James: Alabama v. TCU – To anyone who thinks TCU is going to be picked anywhere but last: I live in Texas, and they made a huge deal around here about TCU actually selling out a home game for Utah this last weekend. I can't imagine that being a good sign for their future selection to a bowl game. Alabama is the best of the at-large pool.
Chris: Alabama vs Boise State – The loser of the SEC championship game will be the choice here. At this point, it's basically the undefeated Boise State team or 2-loss Pitt/Oklahoma St/Penn State. I think the commitee does the right thing and puts Boise in the Sugar Bowl. |
