|
The picture got a bit clearer this weekend. We now know the ACC will be GT/Clemson, the Pac-10 will be Oregon/Oregon St, the Big XII will be Texas/Nebraska, and the Big East will be Cincy/Pitt. We already knew the SEC will be Florida/Alabama and the Big Ten+1 will be Ohio State. The title game, of course, could still swing wildly, as we see every year (see last year). And just projecting the 10 BCS participants (regardless of who goes where) is no easy task. See below to get the projections from some of our Gatorsfirst.com contributors...
Before getting to the projections, it is important to have a little knowledge of the selection process. The entire process is described in great detail here. But the important points are:
- Obviously the #1 and #2 make the BCS Championship game in Pasadena. But there are also the conference tie-ins, which pretty much everyone knows as well:
- Sugar - SEC Champ v BCS at-large
- Rose - Big Ten Champ v Pac 10 Champ
- Orange - ACC Champ v BCS at-large
- Fiesta - Big 12 Champ v BCS at-large
- The Big East Champ has to be chosen as one of the at-larges
- Notre Dame has to be chosen as an at-large if they are in the top 8 of the BCS
- One non-BCS conference champ has to be chosen if they are in the top 12 OR the top 16 if the non-BCS champion’s rank is higher than any of the BCS conference champions.
- No conference can have 3 teams chosen in a BCS bowl.
- The at-large pool, in most realistic scenarios, is the top 14 of the BCS final standings. More detailed rules are given in the link above. The current BCS standings are here.
- The first at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #1 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Fiesta picked Texas first, after losing Oklahoma to the BCS Championship game, as the Sooners were #1). If the #1 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
- The second at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #2 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Sugar picked Alabama second for losing Florida to the BCS Championship game, as the gators were #2). If the #2 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
- The other selections follow this order for games played in 2009: Orange, Fiesta, and then Sugar. Note that the Rose has two automatic tie-ins, so would be complete before this step. This order is based on the rotation of the BCS Championship game among the four bowls.
With that out of the way, here are our picks with a short explanation. These are not necessarily what we want to happen, but what we think will happen:
BCS Championship
The #1 and #2 teams in the BCS get the auto bid to this game in Pasadena.
James: Florida vs. Texas - As &crazy& a year as this has supposedly been, has this changed since day 1? SEC Championship is a national semifinal game, and if Texas can't take care of A&M and the Big XII North winner, they should petition to form the anti-clutch conference, with Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ohio State. Too bad &ACC& is a taken acronym.
Chris: Florida vs Texas – Unless Texas loses to TAMU or Nebraska, they will play the winner of the Florida/Alabama SEC championship game. All three teams are clearly better than everyone else in the country.
With both of us taking Florida and Texas, the new order for bowl selections would be (read below):
- Any conference tie-in – Rose #1 & #2 (Pac-10 & Big Ten+1) & Orange #1 (ACC)
- James selects Oregon, Ohio State, & Georgia Tech; Chris selects Oregon, Ohio State, & Georgia Tech
- Sugar #1 (lost #1 Florida)
- James selects Alabama; Chris selects Alabama
- Fiesta #1 (lost #2 Texas)
- James selects Cincinnati; Chris selects TCU
- Orange #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
- James selects Penn State; Chris selects Iowa
- Fiesta #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
- James selects TCU; Chris selects Cincinnati
- Sugar #2 (Big East, eligible non-BCS team, eligible ND, or At-Large)
- James selects Oklahoma State; Chris selects Boise State
Rose Bowl
Auto bids go to the Pac-10 and Big Ten+1 champions.
James: Oregon vs. Ohio State - Quack! Quack! Quack! Thanks to Masoli for putting Gerhart out of the Heisman race. The Ducks would stomp the Suckeyes. The Big Eleven likes to get all this pesky football out of the way before Thanksgiving, so Ohio State has clinched this game.
Chris: Oregon vs Ohio State – Ohio State secured their bid with a win over Iowa a few weeks back. With wins by both Oregon teams this past weekend, along with the loss of Stanford, the Pac 10 championship will be determined on December 3rd when Oregon State travels to Oregon. At this point, I gotta think the home team pulls it out.
Orange Bowl
The ACC winner gets the auto bid into this game. The Orange Bowl will have the third pick, due to the Sugar Bowl (SEC) and Fiesta Bowl (Big XII) losing their conference tie-ins to the BCS NC game.
James: Georgia Tech vs. Penn State - No reason to change this pick from last week. GT and Paul Johnson should win the ACC, and JoePa and PSU have a history of bringing fans to South Florida for this game.
Chris: Georgia Tech vs Iowa – I think Georgia Tech ends up beating Clemson in the conference championship game. They locked up their division with a win over Duke this weekend. However, Clemson is playing some really good ball right now. So look for that game to be as exciting as the first earlier this year.
With Alabama (Sugar) and TCU (Fiesta) already taken, they’ll be picking from a group that’ll probably consist of undefeateds Cincy/Boise, and 2-loss Pitt/Oklahoma St/Iowa/Penn State. Thinking that the BCS schools will bring more fans, I think the choice is Iowa. They should have the edge over Penn state, whom they beat earlier this year. However, if Oklahoma State romps Oklahoma to end the season, watch out!
Fiesta Bowl
The Fiesta bowl should have the second pick, due to the loss of Big XII champion (Texas) to the BCS NC game. There are pretty much four spots left, for 7 remaining teams. They consist of the Big East winner (winner of Cincy/Pitt), highest ranked non-BCS team (TCU/Boise), and two at-large teams (from Pitt-Cincy/Boise-TCU/Penn St/Iowa/Okie State)
James: Cincinnati vs. TCU - I still think Cincinnati and the &Brian Kelly to Notre Dame& story will be the first pick for the Fiesta Bowl. The BCS lucks out and gets a good matchup of undefeated teams to market- which most years would be frowned upon because of the chance for a split title. SEC Champ v. undefeated Texas in Pasadena should leave no room for a split title, making this an awesomely marketable game. I still think, as I did last week, that TCU could get passed over- they have trouble filling up a stadium on their campus. Here, I'm projecting the TV take along to convince the Fiesta Bowl to make this move.
Chris: TCU vs Cincinnati – I think the Fiesta Bowl goes with a regional team that qualifies or a nationally recognized powerhouse with a large and loyal fan base. TCU made the leap into the &teams that can beat anyone on any given day& category with their slaughter of Utah, and wins at Clemson, Virginia, & BYU. They are really good.
As for their opponent, they’ll have to choose from probable undefeateds Cincy/Boise, and probable 2-loss Pitt/Oklahoma St/Penn State. Both Cincy and Boise should be undefeated. In other years, a 1-loss BCS or very strong 2-loss BCS would jump both for this spot. However, it's hard to make an argument against either. At this point, you'd have to think Cincy would take this spot.
Sugar Bowl
James: Alabama vs. Oklahoma State - Oklahoma has fallen apart to the point that the Cowboys should win that game and go to 10-2, and be BCS at-large eligible. The other choice here would be Virginia Tech, and no one wants to see a rematch. Sorry, Boise, but your only hope is for TCU to lose. The BCS will not choose 2 teams from non-AQ conferences.
Chris: Alabama vs Boise State – The loser of the SEC championship game will be the choice here. At this point, it's basically the undefeated Boise State team or 2-loss Pitt/Oklahoma St/Penn State. I think the commitee does the right thing and puts Boise in the Sugar Bowl. |
