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I think it is reasonable to expect, now that the calendar has hit November, that one could expect to take a stab at projecting the BCS Bowls. Some conference pictures are extremely clear, and others aren’t. The title game, of course, could still swing wildly, as we saw last year. And just projecting the 10 BCS participants (regardless of who goes where) is no easy task. See below to get the projections from some of our GatorsFirst contributors...
Before getting to the projections, it is important to have a little knowledge of the selection process. The entire process is described in great detail here. But the important points are:
- Obviously the #1 and #2 make the BCS Championship game. But there are also the tie-ins, which pretty much everyone knows as well:
- Sugar-SEC Champ v BCS at-large;
- Rose- Big Ten Champ v Pac 10 Champ;
- Orange- ACC Champ v BCS at-large;
- Fiesta- Big 12 Champ v BCS at-large;
- The Big East Champ has to be chosen as one of the at-larges;
- Notre Dame has to be chosen as an at-large if they are in the top 8 of the BCS;
- One non-BCS conference champ has to be chosen if they are in the top 12 OR the top 16 if the non-BCS champion’s rank is higher than any of the BCS conference champions.
- No conference can have 3 teams chosen in a BCS bowl.
- The at-large pool, in most realistic scenarios, is the top 14 of the BCS final standings. More detailed rules are given in the link above. The current BCS standings are here.
- The first at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #1 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Rose picked first for losing Ohio State to the BCS Championship game- OSU was #1). If the #1 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
- The second at-large chosen is chosen by the bowl who lost the #2 team, if that team has an automatic tie-in to a bowl. (Last year, the Sugar picked second for losing LSU to the BCS Championship game). If the #2 team doesn’t have such a tie-in, move on to the next step.
- The other selections follow this order for games played in 2009: Fiesta, Sugar, and then Orange. Note that the Rose has 2 automatic tie-ins, so would be complete before this step. This order is based on the rotation of the BCS Championship game among the 4 bowls.
With that out of the way, here are our picks with a short explanation. These are not necessarily what we want to happen, but what we think will happen:
BCS Championship:
James: Penn State v. Texas. I think Texas recovers to win the Big 12, and is currently the highest-ranked one loss team in the BCS. Penn State is actually behind Texas in the computers right now, but I think being the only undefeated team (in my scenario) would lead to the human polls putting Penn State in this game. Also, there’s the whole JoePa thing.
Chris: Penn State v. Florida. Penn State will win out. They only have two potentially hard games, at Iowa and home against Michigan State. They aren’t losing in Happy Valley. We should all root for Iowa this weekend, because I see that as the only real possible test. With them in the game, it comes down to a choice between Florida and Texas. Both teams will win out, but I think Florida will pass Texas in some of the computer polls, because they will have a tougher road. Florida has Vandy, SC, Citadel, FSU, and a potential championship game against Alabama. Texas has to play Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M and a potential championship game against Missouri. I feel at the end of the day, the strength of our remaining schedule, along with some convincing performances, result in Florida making it to the big show.
Rose Bowl:
James: USC v. Ohio State. In my scenario, USC gets the auto-bid, and so the Rose sticks with tradition with their replacement pick for Penn State, taking a rematch which would include the Pryor/Wells backfield at full strength. I think this scenario is lame, but the Big Ten is lame, the Rose Bowl is lame, and the national media is lame- so it’s going to happen. An interesting note about Ohio State’s eligibility: A loss to Illinois (or anyone else) could drop them out of the top 14. In that case, the eligible top 14, as it stands now, would include 3 or 4 non-BCS teams, USC, 3 or 4 SEC teams, and 5 Big 12 teams. In my opinion, it’s not a likely scenario as I expect Ohio State to win out, but even if they didn’t, the BYU-Utah-TCU thing will likely lead to some of these teams dropping pretty far (non-BCS usually take bigger hits in the rankings with their losses), and another Big Ten or ACC team is actually close enough to possibly qualify. But the “two non-BCS schools in BCS games scenario” is likely enough to warrant mentioning.
Chris: USC v. Oklahoma. USC will get the auto bid as Pac-10 champion. As a side note, both California and Oregon St control their own destiny in the Pac-10. However, I feel Cal will lose to USC and Oregon St. will lose one of their remaining four conference games. As for their opponent, Oklahoma will get the nod, as the first at-large choice due to Penn St’s championship game appearance. In a regular season, I feel Ohio St. would be the opponent, however, I predict that they will lose at Illinois and Oklahoma will look like the more intriguing matchup. Imagine that game! If Ohio St wins out, they’ll be in this game.
Fiesta:
James: Oklahoma v. Alabama. Oklahoma gets chosen as a replacement for Texas, due to the traditional conference tie-in, and a likely high ranking. Alabama, in my scenario, gets chosen as the top at-large because of their rabid, and recently down-trodden, fan base. I think this scenario plays out even if LSU upsets them this weekend, but there’s a chance that if that happens Georgia or someone could climb into the picture- but the possibility of bringing in an extremely rabid fan base that’s recently ascended back to national prominence is too great for the Fiesta bowl to pass up.
Chris: Texas v. West Virginia. Texas will get the auto-bid as the Big-12 champ defeating Missouri in the Big-12 championship game, and #3 in the BCS. West Virginia will be the Big East champ and the best remaining at-large available, ahead of Ohio St. and TCU. It’s a shame that the non-BCS conferences can only gain one slot in the BCS, because Boise St. will go undefeated and will be behind TCU. Boise St would like to prove once again that they can play with major competition. If Ohio St wins out, Oklahoma will play Texas again.
Sugar:
James: Florida v West Virginia. I am picking Florida to win the SEC and get left out in the BCS Championship discussion. We just may not have enough to pass Texas in the polls at this point. West Virginia will be the Big East Champ, and be the next most desirable selection. It’s a party like it’s 1994!
Chris: Alabama v Boise State. Alabama will be the second at-large selected due to Florida being in the championship game, with a 12-1 record coming in. Boise St seems like the possible opponent. There will be more deserving teams like Georgia, Texas Tech, LSU, Oklahoma St, and Missouri that will be ineligible for an at-large pick. They will be more likely a pick over TCU however, because they will be able to bring more fans and national exposure. If Ohio St ends up beating Illinois, they will be in the Rose Bowl, and West Virginia would be the pick.
Orange:
James: Georgia Tech v. Utah. Georgia Tech gets the ACC’s auto-bid, and Utah will be an automatic qualifier as the MWC champion. Utah gets chosen as the last at-large, as they aren’t as highly regarded on the national stage as some other teams (even though I think they should be).
Chris: North Carolina v. TCU. North Carolina gets the ACC’s auto-bid pick, defeating FSU in the ACC championship game. TCU will defeat Utah in the regular season and will be the automatic qualifier as the MWC champion in the top-12 of the BCS standings. TCU will be the last at-large choice.
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James
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Chris
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BCS Championship
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Texas v Penn State
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Florida v Penn State
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Rose Bowl
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USC v Ohio State
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USC v Oklahoma
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Fiesta Bowl
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Oklahoma v Alabama
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Texas v West Virginia
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Sugar Bowl
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Florida v West Virginia
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Alabama v Boise State
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Orange Bowl
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Georgia Tech v Utah
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North Carolina v TCU
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