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Written by JB
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Tuesday, 09 December 2008 |
This is the first in a series of 10 detailed bowl matchups I’m writing for this year’s bowl season. Each time I post one, I’ll let you know when to expect the next one. Here’s what I said in the initial ranking: “I don’t think anyone thought LSU’s defense would be as bad as it has been, or that Georgia Tech would so quickly adapt to such a drastically different system (are you paying attention, Rich Rodriguez?). So maybe it’s the ‘staring at a car wreck’ thing, but I want to know if LSU can handle Paul Johnson’s option attack. If they man up, it says a lot about where this team is headed. If they get blown out, Les Miles may be on the ‘hot seat’ entering next year- and he is still the ‘defending National Champion’!” Here is a more detailed look, and a prediction:
LSU has gotten a lot of national attention for being loaded with talent the last several years. Even after last year’s national title, they were considered to be in the discussion again this year because, although they didn’t return a QB, they had ‘lots of talent around him’. They were still highly ranked until Florida and Georgia each dismantled in October. These beatings set LSU on the downward spiral to 7-5 (3-5 in the SEC). They are the first team since something like the 40s to have a losing conference record the year after winning the national title. My dad refers to this as their ‘karma year’, as Les Miles got extraordinarily lucky on their national title run a year ago. How many times did they convert 4th downs? How many fake kicks worked? It seems like a thousand of each. The karma correction was bound to happen, I guess. They even got to the BCS title game with 2 losses! As an aside, I don’t think it bodes well for Les Miles that practically every SEC fan I’ve talked to shares this opinion. I really think that, depending on how they close this year and perform next year, he could be in real trouble. Especially with Alabama, Ole Miss, and even Arkansas looking like they could be trending upwards.
Contrast the disappointing year for LSU with the way Georgia Tech has surpassed everyone’s expectations. That could mean that we are terrible at ‘expecting’, but I think in this case, it means Paul Johnson is a hell of a coach. You don’t have to think very hard to come up with an example where adapting players to a drastically different offense has horrendous results (see: Michigan, or even Auburn). This may be rambling, but when Florida fans have expressed concern over the Lane Kiffin (plus his superfriends!) hiring, I always think that a Paul Johnson, Chris Peterson, Brian Kelly, or Mark Dantonio hiring would worry me more- they are more from the Urban Meyer mold of winning as a successful head coach at the lower levels before taking on the big-time jobs. Back to the preview at hand… Georgia Tech’s triple option has been devastating a few times this year, most notably to Georgia over Thanksgiving weekend. A large part of this is how different it is from other offenses teams face, but another reason is that his players seem to have bought into it. It’s extremely refreshing, to me, to see a coach come in, do things differently, and still be able to win, without the excuses.
I am a little unsure how I feel about this game. I mentioned that LSU’s defense has turned in some poor performances, and Georgia Tech has a habit of making defenses look silly. I think LSU should benefit from having the extra preparation time that a lot of the Yellow Jacket’s foes have not been afforded. But this game will come down to the ability of LSU’s coaching staff to not only prepare for their opponent, but to lead their team through this tumultuous time. If LSU’s players have given up on this season, this could get very ugly. But if you’re an LSU fan, you have to be excited about the prospect of regaining some momentum by winning this game. I’m not even going to talk about the ‘homefield advantage’ angle, as I believe that will be overplayed (Georgia Tech’s fan base is much smaller than those crazy Bayou Bengals), and will have much less influence on the outcome of the game than the other points I listed.
With that in mind, I think Georgia Tech wins, 31-16. I don’t believe in either defense, really, but I really don’t believe in LSU’s mindset heading into this game, or their offense.
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 14 December 2008 )
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