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This is the fourth in a series of college fantasy football season previews. You can see the others in this series here.
As the start of the season approaches, I’m here to help you all get ready for your college fantasy football leagues. I already wrote a draft guide, in which I tried to lay out some general guidelines for you to follow for your own league. College fantasy football has so many different ways to play, that I tried to make some key points you could use when thinking about your individual league rules. In the interest of helping as many people as I can, I will provide a breakdown of each of the BCS leagues (and the independents), and if your league takes some random combination of those (my league with the Solid Verbal podcast uses Big Ten, Pac-10, and independents only), you can look at my analysis of these leagues to prepare for your draft. Then, throughout the season, I’ll keep you updated on which players are underperforming, and which players are emerging as fantasy options.
Without any further ado, here is my preview on the SEC:
As a reminder, I will assume CBS league default scoring rules and roster limits when discussing these leagues, as those will be the most commonly used rules.
Here is one fantasy sleeper per team; some of these will make a large enough splash in the largest of player pools, while others are only worth consideration in SEC only leagues:
| Alabama |
Greg McElroy (QB) |
| Arkansas |
Dennis Johnson (RB) |
| Auburn |
Mario Fannin (RB) |
| Florida |
Aaron Hernandez (TE) |
| Georgia |
Caleb King (RB) |
| Kentucky |
Derrick Locke (RB) |
| Louisiana State |
Jordan Jefferson (QB) |
| Mississippi |
Brandon Bolden (RB) |
| Mississippi State |
Chad Bumphis (WR) |
| South Carolina |
Jarvis Giles (RB) |
| Tennessee |
David Oku (RB) |
| Vanderbilt |
Alex Washington (WR) |
Quarterbacks
The two elite options in the conference have both been getting a lot of attention this offseason. Tim Tebow of course gets a lot of press. The scary part is I can honestly argue he’s underrated. Jevan Snead is also a well-known name among college football fans by now, so you’re not going to sneak him past anyone in your drafts. I actually would consider passing up Tebow with an early first round pick, if only because I expect a lot of blowouts (like the stretch run last year), and this year Urban Meyer will be getting his QB of the future, Johnny Brantley, more snaps in those blowouts. I’m still taking Tebow in any league I’m allowed with the #1 pick, but I could understand letting him slip to #3.
I would say Joe Cox is the next best option behind those guys, and could sneak up on some people with his fantasy viability. The problem is that Mark Richt’s offenses are always so run-oriented (look at virtually all of Matt Stafford’s highlights, they came on play-action). The good news is how many OL with starting experience are on the OL. Cox should be better than his predecessor at throwing it to guys wearing the right color shirts, so he should be a solid, not spectacular option.
The next group are the upside picks: Ryan Mallett, Jordan Jefferson, and Stephen Garcia. Garcia is a big wildcard because we don’t know if Steve Spurrier will ever again settle on one QB. If he does, you want Garcia. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Brindise taking snaps for SOS. I’d put Mallett as the best guy to grab out of this group, but we haven’t seen him in game action. Bobby Petrino should have a potent offense, and Mallett is the type of talent that can be spectacular.
There are three problems with Jefferson. The first is that Les Miles is crazy. The second is that we really only saw him as an awesome QB in the bowl game. The third is the outstanding incoming freshman, Russell Shepard, which could cause playing time issues if Jefferson struggles.
There are two other names worth watching: Alabama’s Greg McElroy, and Auburn’s Chris Todd. Todd has a less firm grip on the position, but early reports out of spring practice are that he’s going to be the one to run Gus Malzahn’s high octane system. Greg McElroy has a talented group of receivers to throw to, but he’s an unknown and I find it unlikely Nick Saban’s team suddenly starts throwing the ball all over the place. He is worth keeping an eye on, however, as the receivers alone could mean McElroy is a steady option. Questions along the O-Line explain why I have him lower than Cox.
Tenessee’s Jonathan Crompton isn’t as bad as most make him out to be, but he’s still not someone you would be excited about drafting in a fantasy league. He also is in a position battle with Nick Stephens. I do think the Vols will have a much better year than last year, but the defense and running game will lead the way.
In Kentucky, they are very excited about incoming freshman Morgan Newton. I don’t think he’ll see the field to warrant fantasy consideration, however. I also don’t think you’ll want a Mississippi State QB, as it’s a three-way competition, and they might not score enough points to be worth your attention.
Running Backs
The top fantasy running backs are LSU’s Charles Scott and Arkansas’ Michael Smith. Alabama’s Mark Ingram and UGA’s Caleb King could also be elite fantasy options, though they are less proven. I would rate King over Ingram, because of the offensive line issues I mentioned in the QB section. I should note that when I first wrote this I was expecting Caleb King to be the starter, but it appears as if Richard Samuel is going to be the one to benefit from that line.
Montario Hardesty is an intriguing pick, but a pair of highly touted freshmen (Bryce Brown and David Oku) could take some carries. Anthony Dixon has shown he is a capable ball carrier, but I am unsure how, exactly, the new offense will shake out. Dan Mullen may also be making an example of him by punishing him for his DUI. If Dixon misses an extended period (which I don’t think is likely if he keeps his act together), Christian Ducre would be a worthy matchup play.
Florida has a multi-headed monster at RB, but since you can draft “Hydra – RB, FL”, you’ll have to guess where most of the production is going to come from. Jeff Demps set a personal goal for 1,000 yards, and Chris Rainey has bulked up. The “Shake n Bake” duo could each have productive games for spot starts, unless Demps really takes most of the production. I’m excited to see if Manny Moody gets more carries, and it’s worth noting he had high yardage totals in games where he only came in for cleanup duty.
Wide Receivers
The top WR names in the SEC are worth getting in every league: AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dexter McCluster, and Brandon LaFell. CBS projects Deonte Thompson to be the top WR for the Gators, and he’s the guy you want to start the year. I’ll get to the rest of the Gators a little later. I’d say you also want Shay Hodge, Jevan Snead’s second target.
I owned McCluster a year ago, as Houston Nutt loves using an African-American with an Irish last name (McFadden, McCluster…) to run his wildcat formations. I’ve repeatedly made the point that WR are inconsistent, and any sort of WR that gets carries or direct snaps is a good player to target. For this reason, McCluster is the top WR option in the SEC. Jones may have the most talent, but this is fantasy, and you want the most stats.
In Gainesville, top targets Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy each took their skills to Sundays. Deonte Thompson is receiving all the hype to step in and get some of those catches, but someone else could emerge. As of this morning, freshman Andre Debose’s hamstring issue may cause him to miss a significant amount of time. Word out of spring was that Frankie Hammond, Jr. or Omarius Hines could emerge as the Gator’s primary deep threat. I would stay away from Nelson or Cooper, as they get a lot of PT for their blocking, but don’t get the numbers you’ll want for fantasy. And I think it’s safe to call Carl Moore a bust at this point, so I wouldn’t waste a pick on him, either. With all of these guys, it’s a situation worth monitoring, as someone has to catch the ball when the Chosen One throws it.
The two sleeper WRs I chose are for different reasons. Alex Washington is a senior, so he will know the Vanderbilt system, and could be a decent deep threat. But he is a bit of a risk as they have a couple transfer WRs coming in, and we don’t know how quickly they’ll catch on. My big sleeper for SEC WR is Mississippi State true frosh Chad Bumphis. Dan Mullen’s offense should provide many opportunities for him to shine, and if he the kind of touches that Percy Harvin got at Florida, he’ll be worth owning. Watch how Mullen uses him in the first few games, and stash him on your bench in the meantime.
Tight Ends
I think Aaron Hernandez emerges as one of the top TE in all of fantasy this season. He has that kind of talent, and with the other pass catchers on the Gators less proven, he will have the opportunity. You can wait on bigger names like Gresham and Gronkowski to get scooped up with higher picks, and wait on a guy like Hernandez.
The top TE option according to CBS projection is DJ Williams (Arkansas). I can’t complain about that, he’s also an excellent option. I can say I probably won’t own him in any leagues, as I’m more prone to grabbing a sleeper with one of my last 3-4 picks, and playing the matchups.
LSU’s Richard Dickson is another name to learn, for definite ownership in SEC leagues, and as a matchup play in larger ones. He was the team’s leading receiver in QB Jefferson’s breakout bowl game, and even if that trend doesn’t hold, he’ll likely be targeted enough to make him worth your while.
Kickers
Don’t draft one till the end. Don’t carry a backup. It’s a waste of time to try to rate one versus another for fantasy purposes. Just play the matchups.
Defense / Special Teams
Florida is good. Not worth the pick in the draft you’d have to waste to get them, though. Just play the matchups, and don’t carry a backup. Just because they’re projected to get a ton of points (blocked kicks and Brandon James play a big role in that), don’t go get them ahead of guys like AJ Green, who is projected for less points but is more valuable. If you learn nothing else from this article, learn that. And take a kicker last. |
