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With the college football season rapidly approaching, Gatorsfirst.com is presenting a different take on the 2009 season every day for the entire month of August. We call it our ''Full Month of College Football Previews''. As part of the project, we are having fellow bloggers and other college football personalities from around the SEC and the rest of the nation give us their take on the current state of college football. This approach will allow us to bring you a much more in-depth look at the 2009 season than we could possibly provide on our own.
The next in this series are James's SEC preseason predictions. James is one of the co-founders of Gators First.
Read below for his take on how the SEC divisional races will go down, and which players will have big years.
Projected Conference Finish
Conference Championship: Florida over Ole Miss
East
Florida 12-0 (8-0)
Georgia 11-1 (7-1)
Tennessee 8-4 (4-4)
South Carolina 6-6 (2-6)
Vanderbilt 5-7 (2-6)
Kentucky 5-7 (1-7)
West
Ole Miss 11-1 (7-1)
Alabama 10-2 (6-2)
LSU 9-3 (5-3)
Arkansas 7-5 (3-5)
Auburn 5-7 (2-6)
Mississippi State 3-9 (0-8)
To come to the conclusion for these records, I picked who I thought would win each game. It's worth noting that I'm only good for like 70-75% accuracy throughout the year, and there will be upsets. I struggle to think Mississippi State will win more than 1 conference game, but I think they will win one, somewhere.
I was really surprised about how down on South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt I was. But I do think I'm right on UF, UGA, and UT... which doesn't leave a lot of wins for those other guys. Such is life in the SEC.
I also have gone back and forth on the top 3 in the West. Ole Miss is a very good team, but Houston Nutt will make sure they lose a game they should win. I had to pick them at 8-0 in the conference, though, because their schedule sets up so nicely.
I do wonder if Alabama will suffer from the year 3 misfortune I saw at Florida under Spurrier and Meyer, where the successful second year leads to losing key talent (ask Utah how Bama fares without those two stud OL), and the coaching change led to a gap in recruiting. I wouldn't be surprised if Alabama comes back a little before returning to the top 5 at some point in 2010. I had to pick them to beat Virginia Tech, because of their performance in Atlanta a year ago, and because I think VT is overrated (voters feel someone is going to win those ACC games).
LSU may have found a QB in the bowl game, but I think Les Miles is similar to Houston Nutt in that he'll make sure they lose a couple games. It is so hard to pick against the talent the Hat has assembled there, though.
Arkansas is the anti-Ole Miss, schedule-wise. They play Florida, Alabama, and LSU on the road, and also draw Georgia from the East. I think their team could be very dangerous, but I just don't see where the wins are coming from. I do like them over A&M big in a neutral site game in Arlington, TX.
The hardest thing about predicting this SEC school, for me, had to do with the coaching changes at Auburn and Tennessee. I know the Auburn move was a step backward, and I at least have some thoughts that Kiffin is a notch below Fulmer. Both Auburn and Tennessee were picked to have good seasons a year ago, and got caught in the downward spiral like only the SEC can provide. The only explanation anyone can come up with for Tennessee losing to MWC bottom-feeder Wyoming is that the team quit on its coach. So in some respect, I expect the coaching change to at least revitalize the players, fans, and program. But I worry about Auburn coming that far back, as no one knows why Gene Chizik even got hired.
Top 5 Freshmen/newcomers
1 Omar Hunter, DT, Florida
2 Bryce Brown, RB, UT
3 Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
4 Chad Bumphis, WR, MSU
5 Andre Debose, WR/RB, Florida
Omar Hunter redshirted last season, but after Signing Day 2008 Urban Meyer called him &the Tim Tebow of this class&. Our defensive coaches have always rotated a lot of DL, so he will get his opportunity to shine on an extremely talented defense. Bryce Brown is a no-brainer, as the consensus #1 RB recruit is always a success. I think Trent Richardson will also have the opportunity, though the jury is still out on how Alabama will replace the losses on the line. And Dan Mullen will have a tough year, but young guys like Chad Bumphis will have them dreaming of a trip to Atlanta before too long in Starkville. I had to pick Andre Debose, but I am a little worried the hype is too great for this kid, and other guys that have been in Florida's program for longer will be the ones to step in for Percy Harvin. He will have his chance, though, and that's more than you can say for most true freshmen.
Top 5 Breakout Players
1. Aaron Hernandez, TE, UF
2. Caleb King, RB, UGA
3. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
4. Brandon Bolden, RB, Ole Miss
5. Jordan Jefferson, QB, LSU
I've already stated I think LSU found their QB in the bowl game. UGA's disappointing 2008 was largely due to injuries, especially on a talented offensive line. I expect them to have a better than expected season, and for Caleb King to lead that charge. Aaron Hernandez is Tebow's only proven returning target, and he'll push to be considered among the game's best tight ends (settle down, Gronkowski and Gresham are still better). Ryan Mallet will remind everyone why he was such a big get for Bobby Petrino.
Player Superlatives
Player of the Year: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Offensive POTY: Jevan Snead, QB, Ole Miss
Defensive POTY: Eric Berry, S, UT
Overrated POTY: Nu'Keese Richardson, WR, UT
Underrated POTY: Joe Cox, QB, UGA
Joe Cox will get exponentially less publicity than his predecessor, but will also throw the ball to more guys wearing the right color shirt. He will lead Georgia to a Sugar Bowl appearance, but the spotlight will shine on other players in Athens, as he will be more of a &caretaker& or &game manager& or whatever the trendy QB buzzword is at present.
Bowl Projections
BCS Championship Game: Florida v. Texas
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. Oklahoma
Capitol One Bowl: Ole Miss v. Penn State
Cotton Bowl: LSU v. Oklahoma State
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: South Carolina v. Virginia Tech
Outback Bowl: Alabama v. Michigan
Liberty Bowl: Tennessee v. Houston
Music City Bowl: Arkansas v. North Carolina
The loser of the conference championship game rarely gets the BCS nod, it's usually a hot team that missed Atlanta. For this reason I have the Sugar Bowl selecting Georgia over Ole Miss. The Les Miles Bowl in Dallas would be interesting, as would the tradition of a Michigan and Alabama clash in Tampa. If Bobby Petrino sticks around through late December, he'll get to battle Butch Davis' squad for the title of &trendy preseason selection& of 2010. I think both of those programs are headed in the right direction.
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