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Pac-10 Fantasy Guide 2010 PDF Print E-mail
Written by JB   
Thursday, 02 September 2010

Next up in my look at each BCS Conference's fantasy prospects is the Pac-10.  You can see all the rest of the conferences here.

Here are the guys I've identified as Pac-10 sleepers this season.  Some of these are useful only in Pac-10 Leagues, while others are guys to target in virtually any league.

Team Sleeper Position
Arizona Greg Nwoko RB
Arizona State Steven Threet QB
Cal Kevin Riley QB
Oregon Darren Thomas QB
Oregon State Joe Halahuni TE
Stanford Stepfan Taylor RB
UCLA Josh Smith WR
USC Dillon Baxter RB
Washington D'Andre Goodwin WR
Washington State James Montgomery RB

 

Arizona's three-headed running back monster will worry most fantasy players, as I doubt you believe Nic Grigsby when he said they'll have three 1,000 yards running backs.  Greg Nwoko is the big-back option, so in Pac-10 leagues he's an interesting option.

I like Michigan transfer Steven Threet at Arizona State.  I think he grabs the job and runs with it under new coordinator Noel Mazzone.  In a conference with few established options, Threet could be a fantastic option, though it'd take quite an explosion to make me consider him as anything more than a matchup play in BCS Leagues.

Another QB, Cal's Kevin Riley could take a big step forward this season.  NFL aside, Jeff Tedford does generally develop productive college QBs.  Riley is now a senior, and should be in the right mindset to put it all together this year.  Similarly to Threet, I'm doubtful he has anything more than bye-week, spot-start value in BCS Leagues.  But Riley is certainly a better bet to have an impact in your BCS League than Threet.

My third QB sleeper in the Pac-10 is Darron Thomas.  Most college football fans, I think, assumed with Masoli out that Nate Costa would be the next in line.  Thomas is a relative unknown, and if he holds onto the job should have a fantastic opportunity to succeed.  I should put a disclaimer here that I have somewhat of a man-crush on Oregon HC Chip Kelly.

I've got Oregon State's Joe Halahuni in a couple of leagues this season.  Part of that is because I am content to wait on TE in virtually every league this season- unlike the last couple of years, there is a real lack of elite options- but part of that is also because I think he could emerge as a quality red zone target as defenses key on the Rodgers brothers.  It also doesn't hurt that conventional fantasy wisdom looks to pass-catching TEs as a safety net for new starting QBs, and the Beavers are breaking in a new QB.

Stanford's Stepfan Taylor is projected fairly highly by CBS.  But most people will pass, thinking the singular greatness of Toby Gerhart was what made him a Heisman contender a year ago.  Gerhart may have been great- but the system he was in (and the number of carries he got) were also a big reason for his fantasy totals.  Taylor should benefit from all of the advantages Gerhart had- except for the advantage of being Toby Gerhart.  Don't pass on Taylor like your league mates surely will.

UCLA's sleeper is Colorado transfer Josh Smith.  There's a lot of buzz surrounding Smith, and anytime the words 'athletic' and 'big play threat' are used for a wide receiver, fantasy owners should take notice.  Initially he's only an option in Pac-10 Leagues, but depeding on how he breaks out, you could be playing him in favorable matchups later this season.

USC's Dillon Baxter is hardly a sleeper to recruitniks.  However, he's suspended for the first game, and Pete Carroll signed roughly 9,000 RBs over the last 5 years.  Still, Baxter is one to watch, as if he lives up anything approaching the hype, there will be a mad dash to pick up Baxter at some point this season.

All the Washington hype is centered on Jake Locker.  (Quick tangent: in the SEC, we spell Jake Locker ''S-T-E-P-H-E-N G-A-R-C-I-A'', except Garcia has actually won double digit games during his career.  And a coach that might hate him.)  Lost in that hype is that D'Andre Goodwin is back from injury after leading the team in receiving in 2008.  He's now in danger of getting lost in the pack, but I lack that we've seen him produce before.

Washington State's fantasy value usually is found by starting the opposing defense each week.  James Montgomery is a senior, and at the very least I expect the Cougars to run quite a bit, if only to make sure the clock runs out faster on their likely dreadful season.

Position Scarcity

Elite fantasy options at QB are thin in the Pac-10.  I, for one, will stay away from Locker and Andrew Luck, as I believe their draft value to Mel Kiper is greater than their draft value for fantasy players.  After these two- which, despite my negativity, are unquestionably the top two options for the Pac-10- there are some interesting upside guys.  I expect Lane Kiffin to try to keep his team in the headline, despite probation, but lighting up the scoreboard with Matt Barkley.  Nick Foles should benefit from Arizona's co-offensive coordinators background with a Mike Leach offense.  And I've already mentioned several other guys.  For BCS Leagues, QB value could emerge, but 'sure thing' isn't a phrase that can be applied to many Pac-10 options.

Pac-10 running backs, on the other hand, should stock fantasy rosters in virtually any format.  Wide receivers are much more questionable, behind James Rodgers, who I consider a top five option at his position in virtually all formats.  Like QB, some impact receivers may emerge, but the majority of fantasy value from Pac-10 teams lies at running back.

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