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It's the final game of the regular season and that can only mean one thing, FSU week. I have the strangest dynamic with FSU
compared to Florida's other rivals. While I despise Miami, hate Tennessee, and really love seeing those Dawgs lose in
Jacksonville, FSU for me is more good natured. If this seems crazy, let me disclaim myself.
With two aunts, two former roommates, and a half dozen friends or so who are big time FSU fans or alumni (not even the fake
kind of fans who bail since they stink either, but real deal fans), for me it's always been about ribbing people I know, so it
has never been vicious. It's been good times lately as the Gators are on a 5 game winning streak, and if it wasn't for the
''Swindle at the Swamp'' it would be 6.
Gameday will be in attendance which actually isn't the greatest news since UF is only 6-4 when Gameday comes to town, but 14-6 when Gameday goes to a Gator road game. Florida has been on Gameday (31x) more than any other program, and the FSU/Florida game (8x) has been on more than any other matchup. Starting in 1993, Florida's 31 times will mean UF has averaged 1.82 Gameday appearances per year. Ohio State is second at 25 times, or 1.47 times a year.
I analyzed the numbers since the last time I tallied up the picks record (adding in weeks 7, 10, & 12) and here are the results.
SEC
After going 23-12 (65.71%) into week seven, I was only 9-6 (60%) the last three times out within The Conference, moving the season's record to 31-18 (63.26%).
ACC
Starting the year 2-13 (13.33%) I changed up and went to the AC3 and a coin flip for entertainment purposes. The change was good for me as I went 8-6-1 (57.14%) to improve to 10-19 (34.48%) which considering I was rocking a 13% before is quite an improvement. After I made all my picks, the coin had an uncanny ability to pick against me and went 6-8-1 (42.85%), including 4-0 this past week.
Non-Dixie out of conference Football
Once I took out my ACC picks, I did pretty well in my non conference picks going 17-11 (60.71%) through week seven. I also went 9-6 (60%) in the OOC picks the last three times to move to 26-17 (60.47%) for the season. Total up the numbers and I stand at 67-54 (55.37%) which is enough to be making enough to cover the juice. Toss out the
terrible ACC record and the numbers show the obvious improvement to a stellar 57-35 (61.95%).
This is rivalry week, which means a plethora of games with names. I'll include the name of the game if I can find one.
SEC
Alabama -10 @ Auburn AKA The Iron Bowl: First played in 1893, the name originates from Birmingham's history of iron and steel production, only rivaled by the Steel city itself, Pittsburgh. The winner gets the Foy-ODK Sportsmanship award, awarded at the home basketball game of the winner, since they play a home and home every year on the hardwood. As Texas/A&M showed us, rivalry games don't always unfold as planned (UT was 27 point favorites). I think the War Tigereagles keep this one close. Alabama 24-20.
Ole Miss -8 @ Miss State AKA The Battle of the Golden Egg or Egg Bowl: First played in 1901, the winner has been awarded the &Golden Egg& trophy since 1927. Dan Mullen has obviously made the Bulldogs better this season, even if their record doesn't reflect much of an improvement, but Ole Miss is flat better right now. If this was a team with another name, then I could see the Reb's totally playing down to the competition, but since it's the Egg Bowl, I think Mississippi pulls no punches. Rebs 35-17
Arkansas @ LSU -3.5 AKA The Battle for the Golden Boot: First played in 1901, the Golden Boot Trophy was added a few years after Arkansas joined the SEC, and is the heaviest trophy traded in college football. I think the Hogs win outright for some reason, but the points isn't a bad play as 3.5 is a good spread for underdogs. Arky 27-20
Tennessee -3 @ Kentucky: The Wildcats consider Tennessee one of their biggest rivals. The Vols see Kentucky as an afterthought, and after winning 24 straight times, who can blame them. Tennessee's winning streak vs Kentucky is the longest in the nation, now one game longer than Florida's winning streak over UK. Since both Tennessee and Kentucky beat Georgia (who is already 4-4 in the conference), the winner of this game would finish 2nd in the SEC East. If the Cats win they will be 8-4 and will be playing in a New Year's Day bowl. I jokingly said last week, it could happen if they broke the hexes of UGA and UT; they're halfway home. I'm not so sure Kentucky can or should win this game, but I can't bail on em now after they proved me wrong last week. Cats 20-17
Vanderbilt is done for the year
AC3 (ACC sucks and has no named games this week that don't involve SEC teams, at least none that I could find)
North Carolina -5.5 @ NC State: UNC is better and should win this one since NC State's defense is terrible. UNC 31-21
Wake Forrest -5 @ Duke: Wake will try and play spoilers and keep the Dookies from going bowling for the first time in years. Wake has been in a close game almost every game this year, and I can't see this one being any different. Take the points with Duke
Miami -7 @ South Florida: Can USF knock off another of the Big 3? If so, they could come into the Swamp next September with a chance to beat all three in a row. Neither of these teams has played as well the last few weeks as they did earlier in the season. Miami needed huge 4th quarters to beat Wake and Duke, and lost to UNC and Clemson in 4 of their last 5 (also a blowout win over terrible Virginia mixed in). USF has lost 3 of 5, albeit two of those losses are to Cincinnati and Pitt, who are a combined 19-1. I think this is a game where you should take the points, but I could see either team winning this game. Miami 28-24
Boston College -6 @ Maryland: The Terps are terrible. BC is a much better football team. I'm going to hammer this line, which means Maryland will probably win outright. BC 31-6
Virginia Tech -15 @ Virginia: Virginia is awful. Is Tech's offense good enough to cover this spread? I'm not sure. The
spread shrinking even with money on VT has me concerned as well. But Virginia is awful. Tech 27-7
ACC/SEC Challenge
In last season's Florida, Georgia, South Carolina ACC/SEC challenge, the ACC won 2-1, with only Florida beating their ACC counterpart. I'm pretty sure it will be the same result this season.
Clemson -3 @ South Carolina AKA The Battle of the Palmetto State: first played in 1896, these two have played every year since 1909, making it the longest uninterrupted series in the south, and the third longest overall. Clemson has won around 2/3s of the games against the Gamecocks all time. They are playing better and have locked up a berth in the ACC title game. It should be classic Clemson fail time, and I could totally see SOS having the 'Cocks ready and springing an upset, but the Tigers are better and CJ Spiller is playing like a man possessed lately. Clemson 25-20
Georgia @ Georgia Tech -7.5 AKA Clean Old Fashioned Hate: First played in 1893: Tech won last year's highly entertaining shootout by 3. Tech improved and played their way to the ACC title game with a 10-1 record. Tech COULD THEORETICALLY still get into the BCS title game if a rash of upsets happen this weekend. They sit at 7th, the first one loss team. The Dawgs meanwhile, have regressed and sit at 6-5. A shocking upset could ease the growing (and unwarrented...yet) pressure on Mark Richt. I just don't see it happening. I mean they lost at home to Kentucky last week. Tech 38-21
Florida State @ Florida -24.5 AKA The Governor's Cup or Sunshine Showdown: first played in 1958 since FSU was a women's school for 50 years. That school out west comes in looking to spring the shocker of the year and this series. If they had Christian Ponder, they had a very small shot. With a freshman QB making his 3rd start (who threw 3 picks vs the vaunt Maryland defense last week) and a defense that has less resistant ability than wet toilet paper, it isn't happening. Florida will need to be -3 or -4 in the turnover margin and a sack load of penalties to lose this game. Whether or not Florida will cover a 4 score spread on the other hand is a completely different matter. We all know Urb's has a tendency to get into clock wasting conservative mode as early as possible, and therefore this is a scary spread. With a freshman at the helm, I can't see FSU scoring into the 20s seeing as no one else has gotten more than 20. Therefore, if we say FSU scores 10-17 points, Florida needs 35-42 to cover this spread. FSU's defense is pretty horrible.... Gators 35-10
Best of the Rest Rivalry Week
Friday
Nebraska -10.5 @ Colorado: First played in 1898, this game wasn't considered a rivalry game until the 1980s when Colorado coach Bill McCartney declared Nebraska as the Buff's primary rival. It hasn't been much of one, as Colorado has only won 8 games since 1962. All you need to know about this rivalry is the story of Sal Aunese. Supposedly, the season after Sal passed away from stomach cancer, when Colorado traveled to Lincoln for the 1990 game, someone painted &Sal's dead. Go Big Red.& on I80 just inside the Nebraska border where Colorado's busses would pass.
Pitt -1 @ West Virginia AKA The Backyard Brawl: First played in 1895, it is the 14th oldest rivalry in college football. The 1921 edition was the first college game broadcast on radio. Pitt has gotten to 9-1, but it hasn't always been pretty. The Wanstache has the Panthers believing in themselves, and they have been better the WVU this year. I think Pitt gets the win and sets up a winner take all match with Cincinnati next week. Pitt 32-24
Nevada @ Boise State -14: Nevada is the first team in NCAA history to have three 1000 yard rushers on one team. Another winner take all game, this one is for the WAC title. For Boise, they still have a shot at a BCS bowl. I think Nevada is right there in a shootout, even if Boise wins. Boise 45-38
Saturday
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma -8 AKA Bedlam: First played in 1904, the name comes from a wrestling match between the two schools, as both schools are traditional wrestling powerhouses. You may ask yourself why Oklahoma State who is highly ranked and supposedly has a shot at a BCS bowl is the underdog to 6-5 Oklahoma. The Sooners 79-16-7 record against the Cowboys probably has something to do with it. OU just got blown out by Texas Tech; I can see State keeping it within a TD. Pokes 31-28
Missouri -3 vs Kansas @ KC AKA The Border War: First played on Halloween 1891, this is the second most played rivalry in college football. The winner wins two trophies; The Indian War Drum, and the Lamar Hunt Trophy. Kansas is in meltdown mode, I would take Mizzou here.
Wyoming @ Colorado State -3 AKA The Border War: First played in 1899, the battle for the Bronze Boot is the oldest rivalry west of Missouri. Wyoming has been a little bit better. I'll take them
Utah @ BYU -7.5 AKA The Holy War: First played in 1896 (according to Utah) or 1922 (according to BYU). Former Utah coach Wayne Howard once said &There's too much religion involved. I did not like that. I really didn't.& I would take the points in what should be a close game. Utah +7.5
Washington State @ Washington -24.5 AKA The Apple Cup: First played in 1900, and named for the state's number one fruit. I think the rivalry status keeps this one just close enough. Washington 31-7
Notre Dame @ Stanford -10 AKA The Overhyped 13-9 Combined Record Bowl: Great White Hype Toby Gerhart continues his &somewhat alive for an average team& Heisman run but running all over the Golden Domers. Notre Dame will play them close (it's all they know how to do), but Charlie don't let the door hit you on the way out. Stanford 38-31
UCLA @ USC -13 AKA The Battle for the Victory Bell: first played in 1929, the winner gets the Victory Bell for a year. Other rivalries use a victory bell as well: Miami of Ohio vs Cincinnati and North Carolina vs Duke. Congratulations! You're unique! USC is better. They should cover. USC 28-14
Arizona -3 @ Arizona State AKA the Duel in the Desert: First played in 1899 before Arizona was even a state, the winner receives the Territorial Cup, the oldest rivalry trophy in college football. Can Arizona overcome the OT loss to Oregon and pick themselves off the matt to beat ASU. I think they can. Arizona either wins big or loses with the hangover, but I'll take the Cats 41-24
Thats it for rivalry week. Back next week with a limited menu.
Al-D |
