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The season is finally here! The lines have been moving and there are a few things I didn’t foresee. First the recap of the listed games from last week’s post taking place Thursday and Friday. I’ll post the Saturday games on Friday night.
SEC
Couple of quick notes that I’ll go more in depth on Friday, LSU spread is growing and is at 18 on some sites, and the Alabama spread is shrinking, it is down to 6.5 across the boards. The Georgia spread was down from +6 to +5.5 but was taken off many boards following a story that Oklahoma State’s starting QB Zac Robinson would not play, but OSU is denying it as an internet rumor so look for it to be back up before the weekend.
South Carolina @ NC State -5: This spread has grown by a point since last week as more people talk themselves into the “Steve Spurrier doesn’t have it anymore” mantra I’ve seen around the web the last couple of weeks. Still not touching this game...
CRÈME DE LA CRÈME
Utah State @ Utah -20.5: the game I’m the most surprised about. I was sure there would be enough bandwagon strength coming back from last season to push this line up, but apparently Orrin Hatch has less pull than he thinks. Pundits talked about how poorly they played last season against some of the weaker teams on their schedule. With a pretty difficult road schedule this year (9/17 Oregon, 11/14 TCU, 11/28 BYU) I think Utah needs a few run up the score games this year.
(PS to Utah fans: you really want Oregon to be 2-0 when you go there. If they get blown out by Boise or are even 0-2, the Ducks play Purdue week 2, the game will totally get written off by the national media. Even if they rebound and win the Pac 10, it will get disclaimed as “Oregon wasn’t playing well then.” You know this will happen. Best case scenario they blow out Boise. Speaking of Boise State)
Oregon @ Boise State -3: The biggest mover of the mid week games, the bandwagon has been gaining steam for the Ducks as this line has dropped from 5.5 to 3. I really think this game is a TD+ win for the victor. If it drops under +3 and you like the Ducks, go ahead and take the money line, the value on your bet is worth more than the points. A 2 point margin is rare in football and a -1 is basically a pick ‘em. If you money line a +1 spread and the team does lose by only 1 point, you are just very unlucky. You basically need the slight dog to win and it’s worth the slightly better odds on the money line.
I just think this goes two ways. Boise jumps ahead early and cruises, or Oregon wins a 31-20 type game. The Broncos are really good at home, and Oregon only returns 9 starters. Either the new guys struggle in a tough environment on national TV or they don’t. If BSU jumps ahead early I think they win easily. If Oregon survives the early emotional onslaught (a much bigger factor in college football than just about any other sport, save maybe some of the crazier futbol stadiums where the chances of being beaten/stabbed/unknown liquid thrown on you as an away fan/player is basically a tossup) and most importantly is able to run the ball with success early, they will be there at the end of the game. If Blount is breaking off big runs early, watch out.
Tulsa -14 @ Tulane: So you hear it here first, nobody agrees with me on this game. The spread is either still at 14 or has dropped to 13.5. Might move some on Friday being the only game on that night
MISSED THE BOAT UPDATE
So after spiking to a high of -23.5, the Ohio State line against Navy has dropped back to -22 and even 21.5 on some sites. Guess it wasn’t as runaway as originally thought.
BECOMING A BETTER BETTOR
Our weekly lesson this week is converting the value of the money line into a perceived winning percentage. For the favorite, this number is listed as a negative number, something like -121. This is the amount you would have to bet in order to win $100. For the dog this number is listed as a positive, for example +250. This number is how much you would win if you wagered $100. These two numbers also can be converted to a perceived chance the event will happen.
For the favorite take the line and divide by its self minus 100. Using our example of -121 above this would be:
-121 / (-121-100)
-121 /-221= .5475
54.75% chance
For the underdog divide 100 by the line plus 100. Using the +250 example above:
100 / (250+100)
100 / 350= .2857
28.57% chance
You can use this information to get a gauge on what the house thinks the final outcome will be. The point spread line is usually -110 for both teams because of the points conceded to the underdog to even the odds. This is why money lines are not usually offered on games with very large spreads. The value of the favorite in the game is very low, only pennies on the dollar. Meanwhile, the value of the underdog is extremely large, but very unlikely.
For example, Utah State is at +20.5 and the money line is +1000. Using our above math:
100/1100=.0909…
So the books only think Utah State has a 9.1% chance of winning the game outright, while Utah is 90.9%, hence the 10-1 payout for Utah State. Conversely, you would need to bet $1700 to win only $100 with a money line on Utah. Huge dogs rarely win, and when they do it’s a really big upset. The spread is big on these games for a reason.
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