|
ANNNNNNNNNNNNNND I'm back.
It's been a while gents and ladies, but after finding my way from Starksvegas to Jacksonville with loads of work in between, I've finally compiled enough random thoughts in a timely enough manner to make a column so here we go. I'm skipping over recapping games that are 3 weeks old at this point, but will return to a quick and slimmed down recap next week.
Quickly, Starkville was a fun trip to a quaint town in middle America. The town's rep as deliverence is over the top, although I did sleep in the back of a station wagon on Saturday night. This was due to the nearest hotel with rooms being in the 30 miles away range, while my BAC was in the .15 range. I'd recommend a trip there once for every Gator fan just to get it off the bucket list. Their super gigantic scoreboard screen was kinda cool too.
Do I even need to say anything about Jacksonville? ''Another successful trip to Jacksonville'' is how I've been phrasing it. My attendance record in Jax now stands at 10-2 in favor of the Orange and Blue going back the last decade.
On to the picks!
SEC
It's take it easy week in the SEC as half the league is playing the Sisters of the Poor. I'm assuming it must be a conference mandate that every team schedule a horrible team late in the year in the midst of the SEC schedule. The Gators leave theirs, FIU, until after conference play concludes. The dockett this week includes: Tenn Tech, Eastern Kentucky, Furman, Memphis, Northern Arizona (really ROFL, shame on you Ole Miss, at least schedule a local weak team) and Vanderbilt... oh wait. I actually don't have a problem with a huge state school playing a very small one and sharing the wealth locally, as long as it's only done once per year.
Vanderbilt @ Florida -35: Vanderbilt is terrible. There is no Brandon Spikes for this game. I was going to make a ''what are you smoking he's not playing second half lolol'' reference, but Brandon beat me to the punch and said so publicly this week. This is a ton of points and I'm still taking the Gators. UF always does one of two things vs Vandy; totally plays down to them and wins by around a 8-15 points, or viciously blows them out. I think we're finally hitting our stride, and therefore eviscerate the Dores by going with option number two. The SEC has 6 non conference losses this year: Oklahoma State (UGA), UCLA (Tenn), Houston (MSU) Georgia Tech twice (Vandy, MSU), and ARMY. Vandy lost to friggin Army, I mean come on. They even had a patented ''That's why they're Vanderbilt'' moment in losing to Army. All Hail, 56-7.
LSU @ Alabama -7.5: The gorilla in the room of a weekend of crap SEC games, this game has MAMMOTH SEC and BCS implications. If the Tide wins, they lock up the West and the national title game, ahem I mean SEC title game is set in Atlanta. LSU is still alive for both the wooden and crystal trophies if they win Saturday. Does anyone else see LSU springing the upset, only to piss it away versus Arkansas or Ole Miss down the road? This guy does. Alabama hasn't done anything on offense the last few weeks to justify more than a TD against a talented team, plus Bama hasn't beaten the Bengal Tigers at home since 1999. LSU offense has struggled this year, but they have been decent against the run, and that's all you need to stay in the game with Bama. I'll take the points, even if I can't quite pull the trigger on the moneyline. LSU 17-13
South carolina @ Arkansas -7: will the real South Carolina please stand up? At least that's what I originally thought. Then I delved deeper. The Gamecocks are 6-3 with losses to mediocre Georgia, getting better Tennessee, and Mark Ingram. Their wins however: 4 points over a bad (3-5, 0-4 ACC) NC State, 2 points over a bad (4-4, 1-4 SEC) Kentucky, 4 points over a bad (2-7, 0-5 SEC) Vanderbilt, 38-16 over a 2-5 Florida Atlantic, 38-14 over FCS South Carolina State who is actually 7-1, and the upset of then #4 now average (5-3, 2-3 SEC) Mississippi. This team has beaten no one of significance. Oh and South Carolina is 1-3 on the road with the lone win being the 7-3 snoozefest over NCST opening night... a team giving up 44 points per game in ACC play. Arkansas is 4-4, but 4-1 at home, and 3 of their 4 losses are to Alabama, UF, and @ Mississippi the week after UF (everyone knows how those near miss games play out the next week). Not a lot of shame there. I want to say this is a must win for the 'Cocks, considering their final two games are UF and Clemson. If they lose here, 6-6 is very likely and it's same old same old in Columbia. Arkansas has two winnable games in Troy and Miss State before closing with LSU, so 7-5 isnt out of the question. I feel like Spur-dog has a win left in him this year, but not this week or next. Hogs 31-20
Memphis @ Tenn -26.5: The last game to get any press because Memphis has actually beaten Tennessee before, Conference USA is a decent football conference, and the Tigers are also an FBS team. Memphis hasn't been very good this year. They hung with over rated Mississippi for 3 quarters before melting in the 4th. Other teams Memphis has lost by double digits to: Middle Tennessee State, Marshall, UCF, Southern Miss, East Carolina. HOWEVER, wedged between South Carolina and Mississippi, this has classic trap game written all over it. Look for a late score by Tenneessee to ice this one away in the 17-20 point range. Vols 35-17
Northern Arizona @ Mississippi -28: Shame on you Ole Miss. Milsaps wasn't available? At least schedule small poor schools from the South. This game was only available at a few sites, and not the one I use. Mainly for informational purposes.
Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky -30: Nice job Kentucky, keep that money in state.
Furman @ Auburn -37: Spreads are getting up there.
Tennessee Tech @ UGA -39.5: Getting ridiculous isn't it.
AC3
So I'm dropping the Washington speaks part, even though I'm keeping the coin flip. It's too hard to find legitimate Washingon quotes that you can apply to the ACC, and yes, previously all the quotes were real. As usual, the favorites get to be heads since studies have shown the American quarter is ever so slightly favored to come up heads. Improbably, in our six games involving ACC teams, I flipped tails 5 times. Meanwhile, I picked four favorites. Uh oh.
VT -13 @ East Carolina: Thursday night game with a nice spread. ECU has played 8 games and 5 of them have been on the road. Their losses are respectibly close games at West Virginia and North Carolina, with an upset loss at Southern Methodist. In that game the Mustangs had: a 63 yard TD off a blocked FG, a 96 yard TD pass, and a 53 yard interception return in a 28-21 win. Just saying it took a lot of breaks. VT has now lost 2 in a row to move them to 5-3, a miracle TD vs Nebraska from 4-4. The game is in Carolina, and you know that the entire ECU campus will be rocking for the biggest home game of the year. The pirates keep it close enough. GW picks East Carolina
Virginia @ Miami -13.5: The beginning of the end for Al Groh. He's played the &suck early, succeed late& game a little too often and this year falls over the edge. With the home stretch consisting of @ Miami, BC, @ Clemson, Virginia Tech, and only at 3-5, UVA could VERY easily be 3-9. Plus you know the Canes will be itching to get that waaaay to close (like the Deacons had to gift wrap it) for comfort win over Wake out of their system. Plus, who could ever forget the last time UVA traveled to South Beach. The Canes will be looking to amend past grievances. GW picks Virginia
Maryland @ NCST-6.5: These teams both suck. NCST is allowing 44 points per game in ACC play. Maryland is scoring 19 per game in ACC play. Something has to give. NCST has lost 4 in a row after a 3-1 start. Maryland is 2-6. NC State can at least score regularily, so I'll take the Wolfpack to cover. GW picks Maryland
Wake Forrest @ GT -16: The Ramblin Wreck has been been running over, around, and through defenses all year with their spread triple option. Wake is ranked 63rd against the run. The Demon Deacons have made a living this year out of beating bad teams, and losing heartbreakers to good ones. Throw out Elon and Clemson (a 35-7 win and 38-3 loss respectively) and Wake's other 3 wins are by 23 points (including both the teams just above this one) and their 4 losses are by 10 points. I know Tech lost to Miami, but this is the best team Wake has played all year. Also starting QB Riley Skinner is questionable with a concussion for Wake. Tech 38-10. GW picks Wake Forrest
Duke @ UNC -10: ITS AWESOME BABY! DUKE! CAROLINA! THE DIAPER DANDIES.... oh wait that game isn't until February 10th (and did Dickie V smoke meth or something between then and now?). The gridiron version of the Blue Devils actually controls their own destiny in the ACC. They still play Georgia Tech and both have only 1 loss in conference. Of course they have to win at UNC, beat Tech in Durham, and beat the Canes in Miami, but sure they control their own destiny. Duke has only played the dregs of the ACC so far, but UNC's offense really isn't that good. I think this game is close enough to take the points. Duke covers. GW picks North Carolina
FSU @ Clemson -8.5: Do I really have to pick someone here? This game should be high scoring, because the Noles have a great offense, and a defense that is terrible. There is really no other way to describe how bad they are. I just picture Mickey Andrew's career as Ken here . The thing is, out of the 7 combined losses by these two teams, 6 are close losses to good teams. Clemson has an inexplicable (other than they're Clemson and they do that) loss to a horrible Maryland team. Their other two losses are to TCU and Georgia Tech, two top 10 teams, no shame there. FSU has losses to Miami, USF, Georgia Tech, and a pretty good (6-3) Boston College team. It's the eye test here. Night game at The Other Death Valley, CJ Spiller against a Florida team, FSU just can't stop anyone, so Clemson 38-24. GW picks Florida State
BEST OF THE REST
Oregon -7 at Stanford: The bookies must be hoping the Ducks are still celebrating their win over USC and are not ready for the great white hype aka Toby Gerhart. I've been impressed with Oregon's defense all year. Now that their offense is hitting their stride, I can't believe this isn't at least double digits at -10 or more. I think it's a bad spread and I'm taking Oregon, but so is everyone else.
Houston at Tulsa pick em: I guess everyone is off the Houston bandwagon for some reason. Not me. Especially without having to give points.
Oklahoma-6 @ Nebraska: I couldn't not pick this game (yes that is an intentional double negative, work it out). If you had told someone 30 years ago this game would have received zero hype this week, you'd have been committed. Neither of these teams has really beaten a good team this year. I'm not sold on Nebraska's offense, but it's in Lincoln. Huskers stay close.
|