WEEK 4 RECAP
SEC
I didn't do so well within the conference [Editor's Note: You can see Allen's week 4 picks here], but loading up on the Gators with some double bets pays off again (see week 2). I gave too much faith to a few teams, Georgia and Arkansas come to mind, and not enough to others like very scary Alabama. I'll do my Tebow take at the end of the article.
Florida -20.5 @ Kentucky: I double bet this early in the week at 21.5, and then did it again when it dropped to 20.5 to make sure I had 3 TDs covered. It didn't really matter as the Gators exploded in the first for 31 and ended any hope of a surprise upset.
Following the blocked punt I began yelling punt Kentucky punt. No one at the party where I was understood this, which was somewhat awkward, but it made sense because everyone was under 30. A minute or so later (could’ve been ten, we were drinking)my father called to mock Kentucky’s ineptitude, he of course got this jest immediately and repeated it to other elder SEC watching gentlemen who laughed heartily. So I’m good at making old people laugh, for what that’s worth (considering only old people buy books anymore... hmm maybe I’m on to something).
First quarter special teams have been laughable for UK the last two seasons, taking any hope the hopelessly outclassed ‘Cats had of an upset early. Lost in the OMGTIMTEBOWOMGOMGOMGOMG was another dominant rushing performance (did you know UF is second in the nation in rushing, notice the awesome yards per carry), and another stellar outing for the defense.
Aside from a little while in the 2nd quarter when they let off the gas, and who wouldn’t after that 1st, the defense controlled the game. Our passing game still looks somewhat controllable, but then again, when we are running like we are why pass? Any coach will tell you, if the other team can’t stop the run you never stop. As Gator fans we should know this (see: second half, Sugar Bowl 1992). Bye week now to heal up and check on Tim’s status.
Mississippi -4.5 @ South Carolina: Who else has seen this game 100 times before? Hot team from the end of the year before, first road/challenging game, everyone presses and tries to do too much. Add in the Houston Nutt 2 game a year inexplicable loss syndrome (Les Miles may also have this disease), and the fact that Thursday and Friday night games are known for strong underdog performances, and this was a no brainer. South Carolina should have won this going away, but repeated red zone failures allowed Mississippi to have a chance to win it on their final drive, but fell short. Back to the drawing board for Ole’ Miss. As for the Gamecocks, they are going to really regret not being able to pull out the win against Georgia. They could be 2-0 with two of the three biggest hurdles taken care of, and Florida at home to end the SEC season. No margin for error now.
LSU -13 @ Mississippi State: so I poormouth LSU all year, finally throw my weight behind them against a team I know will be much more up for this game then the Tigers will be, and generally do everything the opposite of what I should have done. LSU got so lucky in this game I can hardly see straight. They forced/found 3 interceptions and a fumble, and the Bulldogs were stopped on downs 3 different times, including at the goal line for the winning points. This was a classic “perennial losing team doesn’t know how to win” game. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the other Dawgs don’t get LSU this week, more on that later.
Arizona State @ Georgia -12: UGA tried to give this one away after taking an early 14-3 lead, giving ASU points off turnovers and trailing 17-14 entering the 4th quarter. At 17 all UGA blocked a field goal, then drove for their own winning FG as time expired. The Dawgs fell 9 points short of the margin, in a game made closer by mistakes.
Arkansas @ Alabama -17.5: This game was close for most of the first half, and for a little while in the second. The Bama did what good teams do and put the Hogs away, going away, for an easy cover 35-7. Arky dropped a lot of passes, but the Tide was the much better team and it showed.
Ball State @ Auburn -33: The War Tigreagles looked close several times, but took their foot off the gas in the 4th. Two times AU reached a 30 point spread, but never more as they ended up 9 points shy of the margin 54-30.
Ohio @ Tennessee -22.5: Tennessee nearly does the unthinkable, and tries to be the first team to ever lose after a huge moral victory hangover, as opposed to the real kind of victory hangover. A week after holding the Gators in check, mighty Ohio (not State) scores 23 in Neyland but the Vols have enough to win the game. Halfway to a cover, I will not back the Vols again, unless they are like 14 point dogs to Vanderbilt. Their mediocre offense can’t be relied on.
Vanderbilt -7 @ Rice: This game actually dropped to 6.5 a few minutes before game time and I got a wager in on the Dores in hopes of offsetting my bad SEC day. Vandy keeps the SEC train rolling by winning by 3 TDs. This season, the SEC only has two out of conference losses up to this point; Georgia to Oklahoma State, and Tennessee to UCLA. Way to drop the ball.
BEST OF THE REST
Missouri -7.5 @ Nevada: Mizzou gets the job done and is quietly undefeated.
Wake @ BC -1.5: Trailing 24-10 late, Wake roars back to tie it with 11 seconds remaining and force overtime. They promptly fumble their chance away, and lose by a FG. BC makes massive strides in the offensive game department by gaining 398 yards, 330ish more than they did last week. Wake will rue this day, as they outgained the Eagles by 100 yards and were -2 in the turnover department, including the critical fumble lost in OT.
Cal -6 @ Oregon: The cream curdles quickly and Cal gets taken to the woodshed by the Ducks. Oregon dominated every phase of the game. Another built up to be amazing by the media Jeff Tedford team falls flat on its face, again. Who says there’s east coast bias, Cal gets ranked every year before tanking and losing 4 or 5 games. Still building on that one win over USC like 5 years ago.
Miami -3 @ VT: I ended up not betting on this game. I just had a feeling in my stomach. My direct quote to my friend Cory who asked me why I had no action on this game was “I can see either team winning in a blowout.” VT made plays early and kept the crowd ROCKING. From the get go, even with all that rain, it looked packed. I enjoyed this game thoroughly and at the half of the Gator game couldn’t foresee a better day. Canes and Noles both lost in embarrassing fashion and UF was cruising. Always be ready for the other shoe to drop, it’s always there. Back into the woodwork for Canes fans, which is nice. They had just started reappearing this past week.
Rutgers -2 @ Maryland: The Terps led this game for much too long. This caused me to begin to hate them for waiting for me to bet against them to play their best game. Then the wheels fell off and Rutgers won easily, and order was restored.
TCU @ Clemson -3: I continue to fail myself by betting on ACC games. Once again I take an ACC team, and once again they lose. TCU keeps the BCS dreams alive by winning 14-10 on a 4th quarter TD and playing stellar defense from open to close.
Arizona @ Oregon State -2.5: Arizona played a great 2nd half and outscores OSUwest in a shootout 37-32. I bet on a Beavers game three times now. The two times I bet on the Beavs, they didn’t cover, and the time I bet against them, they didn’t cover either… hmmm. The only real knock I had against AZ was losing to average Iowa…
Iowa @ PSU -10: who only went into Happy Valley and beat 5th ranked Penn State and therefore is no longer average Iowa. More like B student Iowa now. PSU melted like the Wicked Witch of the West in the 4th quarter turning the ball over and allowing Iowa to win. PSU was very conservative after a 10 point first quarter in bad weather that plagued most of the college football world last weekend. It cost them.
Notre Dame -7 @ Purdue: hit this one on the head as Purdue loses in heartbreaking fashion, but covers in the process. Fat Charlie continues to live by the skin of his teeth.
Texas Tech @ Houston Pick em: As I watched this game, I began actively rooting for Houston even more than normal even though I had money on them. You could just tell from the crowd and the teams, this was so much bigger for Houston. If Texas Tech wins, it’s another non conference win, go on to the Big XII and see what noise we can make, if they lose nothing changes. Houston’s season rested on this game. BCS busting dreams live on! Always cracks me up when the higher ranked team’s fans rush the field, but I understand here. It’s been awhile Houston, drink it up.
Washington State @ USC -45: the small punt pays off as the Trojans do just enough to win comfortably, but nowhere near the cover. WSU kept this close running on nearly every down and throwing only when they absolutely had to.
WEEK 5
SEC
Alabama -16 @ Kentucky: Nick Saban should send a thank you note to Urban Meyer. By putting away the Wildcats early last week, he killed any upset bid and therefore the crowd. If the Cats had hung around for 4 quarters, it would be another packed house this weekend, as it went, who knows. Florida and Alabama back to back is the hardest two game stretch in America even if both games are in Lexington. Alabama looks really strong right now.
LSU @ Georgia -3: Both these teams are average at many things, like defense. I think UGA wins but with these two teams who knows. I’m putting my money on Georgia.
Mississippi -8.5 @ Vanderbilt: Ole Miss has 9 days since their last game to get right. Talent wise, this should be a no brainer, but the Rebels haven’t played up to their ability yet this year. Vandy is not as good as the last few years. Rebs 10+ point victory.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M pick em: They are meeting in the house that Jerry built aka the new Dallas Cowboys stadium. Texas A&M has one of the best offenses in the country this young season, which bodes badly for the Razorbacks defense that has been prone to give up big plays. Add in the fact they can’t tackle and this looks bad. My SEC bias is trying to tell me it’s just because Georgia and Alabama are that good, but the Hogs are still a year away. TAMU in a close one, but I’m leaving it alone.
Georgia Tech -5.5 @ Mississippi State: GT beat MSU easily last year, but this year’s Bulldog team is different. Maybe. GT hasn’t been quite the terminator-esque unstoppable running game they did last year, but if they get rolling that changes quickly. MSU’s defense is quite suspect, even if their offense is vastly improved. I think they definitely put up a better fight than last year, but I’m not sure they stay within a TD. Another game I’m leaving alone.
Auburn @ Tennessee -2: It’s the War Tigereagles first trip outside the friendly confines of Jordan Hare stadium, and that’s the only reason I can see this line the way it is. I like the Tigers to win straight up in a low scoring game. If we go by the ancient (aka is not very relevant anymore) lines maker’s mantra of home field is worth 3 points, then Auburn would be favored by 1 at a neutral site. I think first team to 20 wins, and that should be Auburn.
South Carolina hosts South Carolina State and has no spread for an FBS/FCS game.
BEST OF THE REST
Arkansas State @ Iowa -21: Coming off their big win in Happy Valley, B student Iowa keeps the ball rolling.
Clemson -13 @ Maryland: Egad another ACC game. Maryland is horrible, and I know repeatedly betting against them will burn me eventually, but they are horrible. Tigers get it done.
Northwestern @ Purdue -7: Purdue is better than their record implies. Boilermakers get it done at home to start turning things around. Could easily have two more wins after losing heartbreakers to Oregon and Notre Dame. Meanwhile Northwestern lost to Syracuse. Need I say more?
USF -6.5 @ Syracuse: Speaking of the ‘Cuse, USF has beaten the Orange handily the last few years. I don’t see that changing again this year, although YEAH WE BEAT THE NOLES!!! coursing through their minds might make this a trap type game. It isn’t like BJ Daniels was the unstoppable truth last week, even if he ran all over FSU. Both his TD passes were to wide open receivers. Still, the closest game in this series is 27-10, and the average score is 35 to 8.3. Take the Bulls
VT -17@ Duke: Duke is horrible. They lost to a FCS team. VT just beat the Miami Hypedicanes by 28. I’m pretty sure Beamer’s boys can take care of business here.
TIM TEBOW
Every Gator fan I’ve talked to is 100% sure Tim will play against LSU. I’m not sure where everyone is getting their medical info from, because everything I hear is day to day. The real question is, should he? Even though Tim may be cleared by the medical staff based on his baseline data, there is more and more medical evidence that says that 3-5 weeks should be the minimum time a football player waits after a concussion.
I don’t buy everything about the long term effects. Remember, everyone they are studying lived and played in an era where concussions were called seeing stars and Tim would’ve gotten a face full of smelling salts and possibly gone back into the game. So those people are good test subjects if we planned on not changing anything about the way we deal with concussions.
However, since now it’s a really big deal, those people aren’t the greatest test subjects anymore. We won’t know a whole lot about carefully managed football concussions for another 40 years or so when players from the 90s and later begin to grow old and show symptoms. Having watched LSU 3 times now, I’m pretty sure John Brantley can get the job done, and I would rather have chomping at the bit Brantley, then coached to be timid Tebow.
Al D |
