Going by last week, it would appear I've lost my ability to pick games as I got ripped a new one over the weekend (I don't divulge all my picks, but they weren't any better). I did fine within the friendly confines of the SEC, it was when I went national that I went a bad 1-4. Lets hope that my skills haven't completely gone on hiatus and come back from vacation this week. I have a feeling on the Gators but the way I've been this season that should scare the crap out of me. Instead I'll probably put a huge portion on Florida this weekend and hope to ride the gravy train. Anywho, on to the recap then this week's picks.

SEC

Alabama -16 @ Kentucky: Kentucky played a valiant first half only to fall apart in the waning seconds. They allowed a TD on defense, and then inexplicably tried to move the ball downfield with only seconds remaining from their own end. This of course immediately resulted in a pick 6 for Bama. Both offenses played better in the 2nd half, but the Tide was able to win comfortably 38-20. They covered the game time spread by only a point, but a cover is a cover.

LSU @ Georgia -3: Lost in the controversy over the celebration penalties at the end of the game was the fact LSU scored a TD. Had they kicked a game winning FG as time expired where UGA never touched the ball again, then it is one thing. Georgia got the same penalty called for them and threw an interception on their final drive. Either way, there would be no cover, as even if LSU had failed to score their final drive, the Dawgs would've only won by one.

Mississippi -8.5 @ Vanderbilt: Mississippi was sluggish yet again, but more than talented enough to take down the 'Dores. Jevan Sneed threw 3 TDs and 3 picks as he struggled somewhat again. This line was -10 by game time, but Ole Miss covered either way. Big game this week for them vs Bama.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M pick em: The SEC bias was correct. Playing in two hard SEC losses was much better preparation then going undefeated vs bad teams apparently, as Arkansas blew Texas A&M out of the water, at least according to the final score. An 85 yard fumble return for a TD was the game swinging play, as TAMU never recovered any momentum.

Georgia Tech -5.5 @ Mississippi State: A good game to watch as the two teams went up and down the field scoring points, and in MSU's case, turning it over. The Bulldogs were done in by fumbles and interceptions as they couldn't quite keep pace. Tech covered the -5.5 by 2x, winning by eleven, 42-31.

Auburn @ Tennessee -2: I was right on in this one, as Auburn got to 20 points first, the game was 23-6 at one point, and held on for a 26-22 victory over the Vols. The War Tigereagles improved to 5-0, and Gene Chizik has bought himself plenty of cred after being a generally unpopular hire.

South Carolina defeated South Carolina State 38-14 and had no spread since it was an FBS/FCS game.

BEST OF THE REST

I got murdered here. It might be time to focus only on the SEC for a week.... nah.

Arkansas State @ Iowa -21: B student Iowa is back to their Average Iowa ways, and after taking an early 14-0 lead, had to hold on late to fend of Arkansas State.

Clemson -13 @ Maryland: Ok so betting against the Terps bites me immediately. Maryland and Clemson are the exact same every year. The moment you put faith in them, they lose. The moment you lose all hope, they win.

Northwestern @ Purdue -7: Purdue... wow. Once again the Boilermakers blow a game they could've won. Leading at one point 21-3, Purdue turned it over 5 times in a little over a quarter to let Northwestern back into the game. The Wildcats score with 2 minutes to go, but Purdue had a chance with 4 shots at the end zone but failed on 4th down with less than 10 seconds left in the game.

USF -6.5 @ Syracuse: An ugly game, there was 5 turnovers only 5 minutes into the game. USF beat Syracuse by double digits again, just like every other time the schools have met.

VT -17@ Duke: Duke is horrible. I knew this would be a letdown game for the Hokies, but thought they would have enough pure ability to cover this spread. I was wrong. A miracle interception return for a TD with less than a minute left in the game had me doing cartwheels, until it was overturned and Duke covered. Damn.

Week 6

The SEC takes center stage nationally as the two biggest games of the weekend are both interconference matchups. This could be a make or break weekend for the league, or at least a PR hit. If LSU and Mississippi win, there is no way losing two top 3 teams can be good for the league. Just saying if the hankies start flying all shady again this week, cough need LSU to be #4, Georgia be damned cough cough then you know why.

SEC

Auburn -2 @ Arkansas: Auburn's offense has been a huge surprise so far and the story behind the War Tigereagles this season. Their defense gets relegated to the back pages and it probably should. Tennessee's terrible offense moved the ball well against them, uh oh. Now they travel to Arkansas, fresh off a pasting of Texas A&M in a rivalry game. We know the Hogs defense isn't the greatest in the world. The over/under opens at 66 so the books agree there will be little defense played in this one. Spreads below three are basically pick em's since 1 and 2 point victories are rare. For some reason I think the Hogs rise to the occasion, and knock Auburn from the ranks of the unbeatens. Remember Arky's losses are to Georgia and Alabama, no shame there.

Vanderbilt -10.5 @ Army: This is a game Vandy should win, but their offense is so bad I have no faith putting any money on a double digit spread.

Georgia @ Tennessee -2: Georgia has been better than Tennessee. They've played a better top to bottom schedule, their record is better, their offense is better. I think the Vols are favored here for several reasons: Georgia just lost a heartbreaker, Neyland Stadium, and UT in desperation mode. Tennessee has road games at Alabama and Mississippi that figure to be losses. Memphis, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky could be wins for them. That puts them at 5-5, with the difference between a bowl and no bowl being the home games versus Georgia this weekend, and South Carolina on Halloween. This is why I think Tennessee is favored. All that said, I think Georgia wins. Tennessee just isn't a very good football team.

Houston @ Mississippi State -1.5: Wow Mississippi State favored? The other Bulldogs have shown their defense to more or less be wetpaperbagish, while Houston comes in off a disappointing loss to knock them from BCS buster status. Houston beat an Oklahoma State team that was over rated and had a big head from beating Georgia, and barely beat an average Texas Tech team in Houston. Both those teams are better than MSU which is still a year or so away. Houston wins outright. You can tell Dan Mullen is making a difference at MSU, but their QB is a 5'10 walk on. Give him time. (I should note that the SEC has only lost three out of conference games, MSU last week to Georgia Tech, Georgia to Oklahoma State, and Tennessee to UCLA.)

Kentucky @ South Carolina -9.5: Kentucky lost the last two weeks to teams it should have lost to, and that is before you bring up the fact they have lost 23 in a row to UF, and only beaten Alabama 2 times EVER. This game may seem easier in comparison, even on the road. South Carolina would like to keep the train rolling after defeating South Carolina State easily last weekend. This game depends on Kentucky's mindset. If they come out down because of the last two weeks, South Carolina is good enough to rout them too. If they come out fired up and look at this is a game they can win, I think they can play the Cocks tight. With Garcia, Spurrier finally has a QB who can do everything he's been trying to accomplish at South Carolina. One of those things is beat Kentucky every year. South Carolina wins the game, but for some reason I think Kentucky keeps it close.

Alabama -5 @ Mississippi: The Rebs have not lived up to expectations so far this season, and I don't think they start here. This game is much too obvious for the Houston Nutt upset even though 75% of the money backs Bama (which worries me). I don't think anyone would be surprised if they won. No one lives off the &no one believed in us& mantra like Houston Nutt. They will lose here, everyone will write them off, then they will go beat Auburn and LSU when everyone has forgotten about them. This is the way a Houston Nutt team works. Bama to cover the 5.

Florida -7.5 @ LSU: This started at 9 and people have been hammering LSU with the doubts swirling around Tebow. The money is 2-1 on LSU at this point on the site I use. Therefore I'm waiting and hoping it falls to an even 7 or possibly below. I've talked myself into the belief that Florida will slaughter LSU this Saturday. I said this last year and people scoffed and we blew them out of the water, but that game was at home and did snowball a bit on them. I truly believe if the Gators don't completely kill themselves with turnovers and penalties (3 and 10 respectively would be enough) they win this game by double digits. If Brantley plays I'll say 35-17, with Tebow I'll say 24-14. If Tim doesn't play, instead of being down, I think everyone on the team would feel the need to step up to make up for the loss.

I have to spill the rumor somewhere. All I'll say is a loose lipped source told his cousin who told me. Tebow is definitely not playing this weekend and that him practicing is all for LSU and the media to assume there is noooooo way he'll be held out. I'll believe it when I see it, but the loose lips fellow has seen action on the field this year for Florida, so I can't totally throw it out. I can also see diabolical Urban playing the &game time decision& card all week in an effort to look like Tebow is going to play, but you have to prepare for Brantley, when in reality Tebow is the Red Herring. With LSU sure Tebow will play they would do a 75/25 Tebow to Brantley when in reality it should be 100%. Dammit, I've out thunk myself. If this hits 7 I may put like 50% of my stack on this so a loss for Florida could be devastating in more ways than one.

BEST OF THE REST

Iowa State @ Kansas -20: Kansas is quietly 4-0 and has won in a blowout at UTEP (where Houston lost), slaughtered a Duke team that stayed with VT, and won a tight game with Southern Miss. Iowa State is 3-2 with wins over North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army. They got murdered by an Iowa team that plays everyone close, and lost to a bad Kansas State team. I think Kansas wins in a blowout and beats Colorado next week, and host Oklahoma at 6-0.

Oregon -3.5 or -6.5 @ UCLA: Much like how the Gators are in limbo over Tim Tebow, Oregon is unsure whether starter Jeremy Masoli will play this weekend. He injured his knee in a blowout win over Washington State last week, and missed two days of practice. He returned Wednesday but did not wear pads. Because of this, some sites were offering the Ducks at -3.5, some at -6.5. I like the Ducks either way, but obviously if you can get a favorite for less points conceded, you would always like it. Unfortunately for me, my site's response is to post no line and wait (bastards).

GT @ FSU -3: FSU favored? This smells like a trap and the oddsmen must feel a big performance coming up to save Bobby. Tech hasn't been as strong as everyone thought preseason, although they have only lost one game. Miami was able to beat Tech because of defensive speed. Also Tech's defense hasn't been great. If FSU can get an early lead, they can win. FSU's offense has been sputtering other than in the two games against ranked opponents. GT is ranked... maybe that is the FSU secret instead of the even/odd thing I went with last week. Or maybe FSU just isn't any good. I think we learn whether FSU is going to be really bad down the stretch this week. GT is a pounding, physical team that wears down your spirit on defense. If FSU is in quit mode, this could get ugly, BUT see the Better Bettor.

Michigan @ Iowa -8: Back to average Iowa hasn't beaten anyone handily save their rivals Iowa State. Michigan lost a rivalry game last week in their first road trip of the year. I think they learn from that experience to be a better team on the road this week. This is a must win for Iowa if they want to be in the hunt for the Big Ten title, as they still have road tilts at Wisconsin and Ohio State. I think Michigan keeps it close enough to take the more than a touchdown points.

A few other I like but could totally see not covering

Stanford +1 @ Oregon State
West Virginia -10 @ Syracuse
Indiana +7 @ Virginia
Utah -7 @ Colorado State
Fresno State -10 @ Hawaii

BECOMING A BETTER BETTOR

Trap games. Do they exist or don't they? There are people on both sides of the rail on this. The books definitely don't know who is going to win, but that isn't their job. Their job is to make money. A great example from last week's lineup was the Baltimore @ New England game in the NFL. New England opened and stayed at a 2 point favorite, even though 2/3s of the money backed the Ravens. Normally when the money is really behind one side, the line will move in an attempt to get more people on the other side. This is where the idea of the trap game comes from. A line opens up that seems wrong (usually a low line) such as New England -2 or this week's FSU -3, when it seems like that team should be the underdog. Meanwhile, the team that obviously seems like the winner, Baltimore and Georgia Tech, is a small underdog. Then when a ton of money backs those teams, the line doesn't move. This bothers people who wonder why the line wouldn't move to adjust the market. Inevitably the favorite wins by more than the small margin and beats the public. Baltimore was only a few plays away from winning the game outright, this would've just made the -2 a bad spread. Since they lost by 6 it was a trap. This has me worried about this week's FSU game. Two thirds of the money is backing GT at this point expecting the pressure on Bowden to break FSU. However FSU remains the favorite,...

Generally if you see a game where it seems like the spread should be flip flopped (favorite the dog and vice versa), see if you can figure out how the money is being bet on that game. If 65-70% of the public feels like you do, don't be afraid to bet the other way sometimes.

Al D