Let me first introduce myself as the new guy on the block. The guys at Gatorsfirst.com asked me to come aboard and do some writing so I hope you enjoy my material. Look for my weekly post The Punt Returner where I’ll look for fun and profit amongst college football spreads, plus some other stuff here and there (I’m just treading water until Gator Baseball starts). This opening edition I’m going to go over a few things we won’t touch on again, so look for a quicker read from here on out. Thanks!
Hello fellow punters!
It isn’t December yet, but we’re going to spend the next four months until then looking for Christmas to come early. Anyone can claim to be an expert tout, post picks, charge you money, and probably not even bet themselves. I’m not here to do any of those things (well except the posting some picks part :). Also remember that studies have repeatedly proven that almost all gamblers lose statistically over time. So we’re going to have some fun and also try and look for mistakes and try to maximize value while minimizing risk. In essence, we’re looking to split some middles...
SPLITTING MIDDLES
Splitting middles is the art of hedging your bet. The goal is to try and find games where the spread will hopefully move several points over the course of the week, bet that game Monday one way, and after the line moves bet it again the other way.
For an example, I will use the South Carolina versus NC State game which is currently listed at NC State -4. If I thought by game time NCST would be a -7 favorite, I would wager NCST at -4 on Monday and then South Carolina at +7 on Friday evening or Saturday morning aiming for the smallest amount of points for the favorite, largest points for the dog. If NCST wins by 5 or 6 I win both bets. Any other scenario I win one or the other bet. If the odds are standard and I bet $10 both ways then I can have 3 outcomes.
1: only win one bet and win back $19.09 on my $20 wager ($10x2) and lose $0.91.
2: I hit the middle and win 38.18 ($19.09x2).
3: win one bet and push the other (NCST wins by 4 or 7). Depending on where you wager, a push is either a voided bet (best) or a returned bet minus the vig. This means you will win one bet and receive a full refund of your 2nd bet OR a refund of your 2nd bet minus some small percentage, usually the it's just the vig. End result is I wager $20 total and my outcome is either minus $0.91, or [9.09 – (0 or vig)] or +18.18. You can see where this can be profitable. When you lose you lose small. When you win you have a chance to basically double up.
No one bets on every game every weekend unless they’re addicted, an idiot, a professional or some crazy combination of them all. Every Sunday night/Monday morning when the lines begin to come out, I’ll scour across the webs and compile a list. Every Monday I’ll post the about the Gators and the rest of the SEC plus 5-10 more games (maybe more, maybe less) that have garnered my attention. I am looking for lines I believe will move by several points by the time Friday night rolls around. Every Friday night/Saturday morning I’ll post an update.
Just remember, I’m not claiming to be Nostradamus, so don’t blame me if WE don’t do well this year. I’ll feel your pain because I practice what I preach. However, I would love to hear back from you guys so feel free to post. On to the picks!
BEST BET ON THE GATORS
First up is our first weekly edition of Best Bet on the Gators. Did you know Florida was not only the national champions on the field, but ATS as well? The Gators were the most profitable team in the country if you bet on them to cover every week. However their first game against woeful Charleston Southern isn’t being offered anywhere I can find, although rumors have swirled for a few days of a 70+ point spread.
Wow.
Even though I’m pretty sure this game will be 50+ to 0 at the half, I still think I’d have to go against a spread that big. This is Florida. For all we know Sept 5th will be raging thunderstorms and heavy winds (it is the middle of hurricane season). You can put up 600+ yards and only score in the 60s, and if Charleston Southern does manage to score (they most likely won’t) then now the Gators have to push 80. It’s too many points, even for Tim Tebow and company.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
Any games I don’t cover are included in another section, or that team is on a bye. When conference play starts, all SEC games will be covered here.
7:00PM Thursday South Carolina @ North Carolina State -4: I wouldn’t touch this one with your ten foot pole.
12:00PM Kentucky -15 vs Miami of Ohio @ Cleveland: This one is rising, it was at 14. If you believe the hype about Kentucky, and in a down year in the East it’s as good a year as any to make a move, they cover. As for me, meh it’s Kentucky.
12:21PM Western Kentucky @ Tennessee -30: If the Vols can’t cover this spread against freshly FBS minted WKU they are in for a world of TTrouble in a few weeks (they probably are anyways).
3:30PM Georgia @ Oklahoma State -6: National media would have you believe OSU (Big XII edition) wins this one big. Pokes are a dark horse contender on everyone’s list, Dawgs are supposed to be down. The books know better. Don’t be shocked when Mark Richt’s plays the “nobody believes in us” card to perfection and his stunningly good true road record makes this one a nail biter.
3:30PM Jackson State @ Miss State no line: games against FCS teams rarely get lines
7:00PM Louisiana Tech @ Auburn -12: a line that any time in the last decade I would’ve have been all over now gives pause. Tech beat Miss State last year and how bad is Auburn going to be? Off the cuff I would go with the Tigers, but it’s probably just SEC bias.
7:00PM Missouri State @ Arkansas no line: see MSU above
7:30 Western Carolina @ Vanderbilt no line: one more time
8:00PM Alabama -7 vs Virginia Tech @ Atlanta: This one has the look of a slobberknocker. Bama has a new QB and VT has a new RB. Tide having been there last year, and the last time VT took on an SEC team in a season opener (LSU 07) has me thinking Roll Tide Roll. I'd like it alot more if it was 6.5 though because I see 24-17.
MOVERS AND SHAKERS
These are the games I think we can have a chance to split a middle.
Thursday Sept 3rd
9:00PM Utah State at Utah -20.5: If you can find Utah at under 21 I think this game could be as high as 24 by game time as we get a little closer to the season and people begin jumping back on the Utes bandwagon. They’re rebuilding a little bit, but 21 sounds about right. Look to take Utah at less than 21 and Utah State next Wednesday hopefully around 23.5-24. Even if this one doesn’t move, good chance for Utah to cover if the spread is still hovering around 21 on Wednesday and forgo the second bet.
Friday Sept 4th
8:00PM Tulsa -14 @ Tulane: Tulsa won the division last year with a 10-3 record (7-1 conf) while Tulane went 2-10 (1-7). Just get a feeling as people get a little closer to the season this one might get bigger. Some sites already have it up to 14.5.
Saturday Sept 5th
10:30PM LSU -16.5 @ Washington: Once everyone remembers how terrible the Huskies were last year this line has to go up. Take the Tigers now. I’m only going to make a weak counter wager on this one depending how far the line moves. I think LSU romps.
Sunday Sept 6th
3:30 PM Mississippi -17 @ Memphis: consistently at -17, Ole Miss is on the cover of magazines and getting love as a SEC title and dark horse national title contender. This line has to go up right? If Houston Nutt’s teams didn’t consistently show up for the big games and mail in the small ones throughout the last 10 years then I think this line is more like 21. Everyone is terrified of the sloppy opening week performance after being patted on the back all summer. I think that happens week two, and The Nutt has his boys ready to make a statement on a nationally televised game all by its lonesome on Sunday afternoon. I’m taking Ole Miss Now at -17 and hoping they move some by Sunday morning. If they make it to 20 I’ll put a half bet on Memphis and hope for the middle, but I’m somewhat confident on the Miss cover here. This could be a hot game late so keep your eyes peeled as some guys will try to make up Saturdays losses with big moves on this game so some last second action could move the line on Sunday morning.
BEST OF THE REST
Saturday
8:00PM Stanford -16.5 @ Washington State: The Cougars were almost as bad as their Apple Cup state rivals (they only beat Washington and FCS Portland State) so the line should go up. Jim Harbaugh has Stanford headed in the right direction and it is a team laden with upperclassmen. However the Cardinal is nowhere near as good as LSU so make this bet an even one on both sides if you can get 18 or 19 and hope for the 17 point victory. Or just bet Stanford straight at 16.5 seeing as they beat the Cougars 58-0 last year.
7:00PM BYU @ Oklahoma -21.5 to -22: Sooners romp. Points at 68 +/- could be worth a fly as well as BYU might get some late scores because you know the Sooners will top 50.
10:00PM Maryland + 21.5 @ Cal: Maryland always plays up or down to the opposition. They probably won’t win but big old suddenly svelte Ralph Friedgen(keep it up!) has a Senior QB and a returning 1000+ yard rusher in Chris Turner and Da’Rel Scott respectively, so the Terps keep it closer than advertised.
MISSED THE BOAT
Saturday 12PM Navy @ Ohio State: This line started at 21 and is already at 24. I missed a golden opportunity here.
This week offers something we won’t see again until the late November, a glut of games not on Saturday. So this opening week there will be an extra post. I’ll throw a blurb up on Thursday which I’ll normally skip and then the normal one on Saturday before the games begin. I’ll touch on Miami @ FSU -5.5 at some point during one of those. On Monday 6/7 look for next week’s post, and from there on out it will remain a Monday and Saturday morning post until Thanksgiving week.
Yeah I've heard the smae thing, but wow. No one is really betting on that either way, are they?
I mean, a few years ago when App State beat Michigan you couldnt even bet on App State period, much less against the spread.
Which was why Stanford got to claim largest ATS victory, they actually had a spread, period while others were off the board. Unless I'm mistaken.
---
Side point: no f'ing reason we should play CSU. ever. they won like 3 games last year in I-AA (FCS, whatever floats your boat). Meyer even admitted as much on Cowherd a few days ago
----
Back to the main point: Given that this spread is announced, I'd say I'd have to bet against my team. which sort of makes me hate myself. But no one ever beats anyone by 73 points. Which makes me wonder how it was established in the first place. Really, 72 was too low? 70? 63?
----
What I really want to know: how do you feel about the Oregon spread?
I think Chip Kelly + time to gameplan = blowout. But heard they are only getting 4? Do rational people think this is a good place to bet, or just irrational Chip Kelly lovers like me?
I think the Oregon@Boise game should be a good game to watch. Very rare to get a GREAT game the first game of the year (see FSU/Miami in Oct vs Sept).
If you like Boise State the spread is moving your way, so most people it seems would disagree with you. The first time I saw it was 5.5, and on the site I use they are at 4.5 right now. Since it's falling, people are taking the Ducks. If you think the Broncos will cover, you are getting a better deal now then a few days ago.
Oregon is going through a coaching change and replacing some guys up front. This is the key. Don't forget they rushed for 227 yards last year in a game they were behind 37-13. If Oregon is able to run the ball early and withstand the initial energy and emotional outburst that comes with a big home game, I think they will be in it the whole way, possibly win straight up.
The question is, if Boise jumps out front again, or stuffs their running game early, will they have the patience as they did under Bellotti, and continue to run the ball since it is a huge part of their offense.
I just don't see this game being a blowout unless one of the teams just really comes out hitting on all cylinders and the other flat on its face. Last year Alabama came out great and Clemson played flat and it set the tone for the rest of the year for both teams.
All said I expect a game where both teams score mid 20s to mid 30s. Personally I think Oregon covers, but not enough to bet them. I'm not betting this one. When I look at a game and I think, "Boise could win this easily. Oregon could win this easily" I tend to stay away (which is why the NFL is retarded to bet on, but oh so fun).
