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The NBA draft is tonight, but it will not have the orange and blue tint of two years ago.
However, there are two Gator-centric storylines I’ll be paying attention to, one of which may surprise you. (We at Gatorsfirst.com strive to point out the Gator in everything.) These stories are:
- Nick Calathes - As you know he left school and signed to play professionally in Greece. His contract is lucrative- more on that later- and he could still be drafted by an NBA team, and likely will- possibly in the first round. My half-baked theory is that he’ll end up in Minnesota, and that was before they cornered the market on draft picks.
- Tyler Hansbrough – We started debating the Hansbrough/Tebow comparisons around the end of March Madness. And it goes beyond Dan Rubenstein continually thinking it’s Tebow’s (and not Hansbrough’s) dad that is a surgeon on the Solid Verbal Podcast (despite the error, I highly recommend you subscribe). Anyway, just listen to the draft pundits talking about Hansbrough- one of them will draw a terrible comparison to Tim Tebow. And I’ll be here to refute it.
More on the NBA draft- including analysis of Nick Calathes’ Greece deal and likely destinations- below.
Nick Calathes’ Greek contract will pay him more than everyone but the top ten guys in the draft. And when you consider that European teams provide for houses and cars for their players beyond the salary, it seems like a very good move, financially. But what will it do to his NBA career (many stories have stated Nick is a big time NBA fan and that those were always his dreams, which made it less surprising when he didn’t come back to school).
NBA teams are allowed to retain the rights to players they draft if the players go play in Europe. This means that Calathes can be drafted by a team who wants to wait and see how he develops, or (given the current financial state of many NBA teams) by a team that does not want to pay his salary (or take the salary cap hit) for the 2009-10 season. The contract reportedly has a $500,000 buyout that an NBA team could pay to get him in the league in 2010-11, but he must play next year in Greece. This buyout seems to be low, especially given Ricky Rubio’s buyout has been reported to be over $6 million. In addition, if Calathes were selected in the second round, he would not be subject to the rookie pay scale, and when the time came for him to make the move to the NBA he could demand more money than anyone selected in this year’s first round.
So where could Calathes end up? My Minnesota theory I formulated based purely on the MLB Draft and Percy Harvin. I hadn’t even consulted NBA mock drafts. Turns out, the Dallas Morning News’ mock has Nick Calathes to Minnesota (as a first round pick in 2009, you have a 13.3% chance of winding up in Minnesota, if there are no more trades). I paid particular attention to this mock, as supposedly the Mavericks told Calathes, before his Greek contract was signed, that they would pick him if here were available. The Mavericks interest is again reported in this column, and it’s worth noting that, if you buy into the fact that Calathes is a late first round possibility at best, Dallas’ recent trade to drop two spots make it a more likely destination. Let me expand a couple points that effect Calathes-to-Dallas possibilities.
- A point against Calathes-to-Dallas: Dallas needs help now. Dirk isn’t getting younger. Two years ago they trotted out the 1999 Eastern Conference All-Stars, with Jerry Stackhouse, Juwan Howard, Jason Kidd… While I like Ryan Hollins, Brandon Bass and JJ Barea as their younger guys, this isn’t young talent like Portland or (to borrow from Bill Simmons) The City That Shall Not Be Named. I think they need to try to make playoff runs right now, and Calathes’ Greek contract would make it difficult or impossible to get him in the NBA next season. It is worth mentioning that Chad Ford (on June 15 update here) says Calathes may be getting cold feet about going to Greece at all (playing time issues) and his camp might try to get an NBA team to buy him out immediately, by working some strange deal (supposedly the buyout was for after the first season?)
- A point for Calathes-to-Dallas: Mark Cuban is well-known to be big into spending money for cutting edge statistical analysis. John Hollinger rates Nick Calathes the sixth best prospect in the 2009 Draft. The trade-down from pick number 22 to 24 could mean they think they’re getting their guy later, as they value someone more than the rest of the league.
- I live in the Dallas area. Ok, not a point either way, but if Cuban wants me to start to adopt an NBA team (beyond following the C’s out of family loyalty), it wouldn’t be a bad start.
Anyway, I am slightly more interested in the NBA draft than the NFL draft for two reasons: Bill Simmons running diary, and it’s shorter. I still won’t watch it tonight, unless it’s on at the Blue Goose, and even then I’d have to take attention away from fresh made tortillas and Negra Modelo (read: not likely). But I will be back tomorrow to point out any dumb points made about Tebow or news about Calathes pro future.
Is there a team you’d like to see Nick play for (other than, I’m assuming, the Florida Gators)? Are there other likely destinations than Minnesota and Dallas that I missed? Does Mike Miller being traded away from Minnesota effect my ‘Minnesota wants to be like Florida' theory? Let me know, below.
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