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I went back to the stats I’ve been tabulating on Steve Addazio and the Florida Gators offense this season. It seems everyone in the nation is talking about the epic matchup this weekend, and using generalizations about each team, and not looking at the actual stats.
Our offense is worse this year. Is it? The answer may not be as simple as you think.
Urban Meyer is more conservative this season. Is he? Or was he always?
Dan Mullen is a much better coordinator, and a better play-caller, than Steve Addazio. How so? Is there a noticeable difference between 08 and 09?
Just look at these numbers.
I never thought these numbers would come out like this. I chose these stats to monitor all season long, posting an initial breakdown before the Kentucky game here and writing an extended (and admittedly long-winded) piece on the state of the Florida Gators before the Georgia game here. And after compiling them throughout the season, I am shocked. Check it out:
| |
2004 IU total |
2008 UF total |
2008 UF Pace |
2009 UF to date |
| Pass Atts |
26.64 |
23.50 |
23.08 |
24.42 |
| Sacks |
2.45 |
1.14 |
1.25 |
2.17 |
| Run Plays |
42.82 |
38.93 |
38.25 |
42.25 |
| Total Plays |
69.45 |
62.43 |
61.33 |
66.67 |
| Run %age |
58.12% |
60.53% |
60.33% |
60.13% |
| Pass %age |
41.88% |
39.47% |
39.67% |
39.88% |
| Firsts (run) |
47.89% |
50.33% |
50.95% |
53.48% |
| Firsts (pass) |
43.68% |
42.16% |
41.44% |
41.76% |
| Total O |
321.91 |
445.07 |
449.42 |
451.33 |
| QB O |
187.55 |
335.09 |
256.08 |
290.50 |
| QB O %age |
58.26% |
75.29% |
56.98% |
64.36% |
| TE recepts |
11.11% |
18.01% |
16.76% |
25.76% |
| RB recepts |
11.73% |
15.64% |
16.76% |
20.71% |
| QB carrs |
22.08% |
34.86% |
32.90% |
40.63% |
| WR carrs |
4.67% |
13.21% |
14.35% |
0.59% |
Yep, we are averaging more yards this season. (451.33 yds/gm against 449.42 yds/gm a year ago) Think we’ve been so much more conservative, sticking to the run game more this season? By my count, we ran the ball 0.2% more of the plays a year ago (66.33% to 66.13%). Note in my calculations, I am counting sacks as pass plays, as that is how they are called by the OC.
As we've known all season, we are averaging more plays this season (The 'Banzai' experiment is one reason). At the time of the Georgia game, we were averaging slightly more yards/play in 2009 than in 2008, in addition to yards/game. We have since fallen off that pace (6.77 yards/play in 09 v 7.32 in 08), but averaging one more sack (negative play) per game can’t be helping that too much. Neither can losing the home run threats in Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy.
Those who are paying attention know the truth: the “struggles” of the offense were not play-calling issues, or anything to do with yards/game. They were turnovers- a problem that has since been corrected- and averaging less points per game. The number of blocked kicks in 2008 gave us more short fields for those points, and the red zone struggles (especially increased numbers of field goal attempts) sort of skew that number. As far as calling plays is concerned, we are really almost exactly the same offense as we were in 2008. We have one less playmaker- Harvin- but we have seen a late season emergence of a deep passing game. Aaron Hernandez is also getting many more catches this season (over 25% of all receptions, even with missing a game due for disciplinary reasons), and has emerged as a different sort of playmaker. We will be forced to throw the ball more in our next 2 games (regardless of opponent, jinx police), so it will be interesting to see how the final 2009 stats compare to those of 2008.
This week, when you see a talking head spouting off about Florida’s offense “struggling” or “being down,” just dismiss their analysis as lazy. The numbers here clearly show that our offense is right where it needs to be- and where is was a year ago.
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