Friday morning, I unleashed a full examination of the current state of the Florida Gators football team (click here). But what does it all mean for the War for the Oar?  (In case you haven’t heard, this season they are introducing a trophy for this epic rivalry game.)

First of all, I’ve stated that I think our offense is actually in pretty sound shape, and by getting more efficient in the red zone, not turning the ball over, and getting a little momentum out of special teams, I think we’ll all of a sudden start rolling, putting up 40-50 points every week.  But those hopes are somewhat speculation, let’s look at some facts more relevant to this weekend’s game.

Georgia’s Secondary, Heisman Maker?

Consider the case of Jonathan Crompton.  In 4 games before the showdown with UGA (and the Willie Martinez defense), he averaged a 91.44 rating (56.97, 77.96, 118.37, and 112.45).  After gaining confidence against Georgia (212), he had another high rating (123.78) against the AP Poll’s #1 team (at the time), defensive juggernaut Alabama.  What gives?

Tim Tebow’s  last 4 games have averaged a 140.52 rating.  If taking the Crompton data is at all legit, he stands to have something like a 300+ rating this weekend.  Even if you only take the increase in confidence Crompton took, and applied toward the Bama game, he’s still going to approach 200.  I’m aware of how ridiculous it is to apply Crompton’s stats to project Tebow’s… but it’s worth nothing Accuscore has Tebow in line for 170.1 QB rating this weekend, with 191 passing yards and 2 TDs.

Georgia’s secondary doesn’t seem to get much credit any way you look at it.  However, in rivalry games, trends like these seem to occasionally go out the window.  Who saw our 49-10 beatdown coming a year ago?  With a bye week last week, Georgia may just come out fired up, with an extra wrinkle to slow us down.

Georgia’s Front Seven: A Strength

In 2007, a big reason for the Dawgs’ win was the way their front seven shut down our offense.  Tebow got hit often, and wasn’t able to scramble for yards (the claim was his bruised shoulder changed his style.   How much of an effect that had, we don’t know- but we do know his lack of scrambling led to a Georgia win, one way or another.)

They could certainly do it again, but I think our offensive emphasis will shift to spreading the ball to the perimeter more, and hopefully mixing it up some more.  If you’re extremely optimistic, you might say we held things of that nature out of the game plan of the last couple weeks specifically for this game.  That could have been the case last week, but I don’t see us holding anything back when our shot at the first perfect season in school history was on the line against Arkansas.

You can bet with the woes in the secondary, Georgia will put the emphasis on their front seven to contain The Tebow.  They’ll also try to hit the Shake n Bake duo in the back field, as they are not known for their power running abilities.  This is an extremely important matchup for the outcome, but in the end I think we deal with it (every defense, at this point, has come with that plan), at least enough to exploit the secondary.

The Best Receiver in College Football

With the Dez Bryant suspension, and Alabama still learning the forward pass, I think AJ Green inarguably earns this moniker.  I might have picked him above Bryant/Jones anyway, but so far it’s unquestionable.  Don’t get me wrong, Dezmon Brscoe and Mardy Gilyard are also good talents, but Green is the best- his numbers are slightly lower because of Mark Richt’s offensive style, compared to the extremely pass happy offenses of the Bearcats and Jayhawks.

How will we combat this threat? Joe Haden and Janoris Jenkins have decent size for cornerbacks, and definitely have the speed to keep up with Green.  They also make up what’s considered to be the best CB tandem in the nation.  Their ability to cover him one-on-one will determine our ability to contain the rest of the offense.  The main thing would be to tackle well and limit his yards-after-catch.  Eliminating the big play should be their top goal, as committing an extra defender to double-teaming Green will make it more difficult for us to stop the run.  And a Mark Richt offense has always been centered on the run (and play action pass).

As far as jump balls, I don’t see many receivers exposing themselves on the high ball multiple times with Major Wright around.  He hits guys once and they don’t want any more.  If he’s able to break on a couple and get their in time to help on the tackles and knock a jump ball or two loose, it could really help our cause.

The Potential Wrinkle

A bye week means Mark Richt had time to find something new to show the defending champs.  Georgia also possesses one of the biggest matchup problems an offense can have: an athletic, pass-catching tight end: Orson Charles.  Though he hasn’t been catching many balls, I think they could look to use him as a complement to Green, and try to incorporate him more in the passing game.

In last season’s BCS Championship game, TE Jermaine Gresham led Oklahoma with 8 catches for 62 yards (and their only two TDs).  LB Ryan Stamper usually draws praise for his pass defense, and will probably draw this assignment.  On an encouraging note for Gators, the SEC’s top TE a year ago was Arkansas’ DJ Williams, and he did not get a single catch two weeks ago, despite catching 6 balls in his previous game against Auburn.

Projecting the Outcome

In all, I think Florida’s defense will be up to the task of containing Georgia’s offense.  They haven’t been exploited yet, and this is not the best offense the SEC has to offer.  The return of 4 key defensive players should help them against a strong rushing attack, led by a talented offensive line.  And the offense’s problems are overblown.  I’ll take Florida, with the points.  Because that’s what we’ve come to expect under Meyer, and his team will find a way to get it done.