|
Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner? |
|
|
|
|
Written by James Brown
|
|
Tuesday, 09 December 2008 |
I will be the first to admit that Tim Tebow’s stats are not up to last year’s (actually, this doesn’t make me first, at all… but that’s the expression). But, no ones stats have ever been up to Tebow’s from last year, which is why he became the first sophomore to ever win the Heisman Trophy. The Heisman Trophy is supposed to be awarded to the ‘most outstanding player’ in college football (any player at any school in any division is, supposedly, eligible.) I’ll tell you what I think of the Tebow for Heisman argument, and provide some real data to back up what I say, if you promise to click ‘read more’…
First, examine Tim Tebow’s Heisman Trophy-winning season. Florida was a young team with virtually no defense. We had to make sure we scored 30+ points, as we seemed incapable of holding most teams to low totals. As a result, Tebow was counted on more. There was no backup QB to speak of, and certainly not the backfield weapons we’ve seen this year. So Tim Tebow did what was asked of him, and shouldered the load, and was rewarded for it individually, but his competitive fire burns for those team goals.
Now, examine this season. The play of the special teams and the defense not only accounts for more points, it gives Tebow much better field position. Also, Tim Tebow’s rushing TDs are down, but the team total is up from a year ago. Why? Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, together, have accounted for 11 TDs. Tebow’s 12 TDs this season are exactly 11 less than his 23 from a year ago. Math isn’t so bad, right? He is 4 passing TDs behind last season’s totals. Johnny Brantley has thrown for 3. So Tebow hasn’t needed to be as relied upon for the eye-popping numbers. Which, if not for fantasy football, would be fine. I thought football people were supposed to hate the number geeks, now all the voters are turning into them?
Further, examine some of the statements that have been made. ‘Colt McCoy has out Tebowed Tebow’. Really, has he? With over 100 more pass attempts, McCoy has a smaller yards/attempt average, and a little over a 4.5:1 TD:INT ratio. Also, McCoy only has 4 more passing TDs… in those 100 extra attempts! Tebow has a 14:1 TD:INT ratio! That’s more than 3 times better than McCoy’s ratio, if you’re paying close attention. And those are Tim Tebow’s ‘down stats’ form this year’s campaign. Put them up next to Tebow’s first Heisman trophy season, and Colt McCoy or Sam Bradford are hard pressed to match up. Sam Bradford’s year this year is statistically impressive, but again, he threw the ball 90 more times than Tebow did in 07, and 180 more times than Tebow in 08. And didn’t have anything approaching the rushing yards and short-yardage, goal-line moxie to back it up. The last point I will make about this statistics are the obvious facts about the defenses Tebow has faced compared to his Big 12 (read: flag football) counterparts. The best defense McCoy has faced is Oklahoma’s. That is the 66th best defense in the nation. The two best defenses Sam Bradford faced are outside of the Big 12 (TCU 2nd, Cincinnati 24th) before Texas comes in at 50th. Florida faced 10 defenses ranked in the top 50. An 11th, Hawaii, is more highly rated than Oklahoma’s. Hawaii! Skewed as this statistics may be, when they are so overwhelmingly in one direction, there is only one way to intepret them. Besides the direct effect on offensive statistics playing poor defenses has, actually having a poor defense benefits a candidates stats more directly: poor defense means more scores for the other team, means more ‘competitive possessions’, as Urban Meyer calls them. Another way to think of it is, immediately after Sam Bradford scores, his defense (or special teams, which allowed at least 4 kickoff return TDs this year) lets the other team score, and, voila, two possessions for the price of one. No wonder these Big 12 offenses have so many more total plays than Florida.
Another statement is ‘Tebow has so many weapons compared to McCoy, Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy, Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey, Brandon James…’ There are really only 3 newcomers to this list this year that would have any bearing, and that’s Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps, and Emmanuel Moody. I think this entire argument is bogus, as Tim Tebow has already proven he can put up numbers like no one has ever seen. Why should anyone use the talent around him this year to question his ability? He has shown the ability to be a one-man band. It sounds like the next place to take this argument is beyond statistics.
If you look at the impact a player has on his team, there is no way to consider anyone but Tim Tebow. The kid is a natural leader; he improves the play of offense, defense, and special teams. He inspires his coach to be a better man, as Urban Meyer took his family on a mission trip for the first time this last offseason. He inspires everyone to work harder in practice, in the film room, and in the weight room. He challenges his teammates to play harder than they ever have before. The lasting image I will have of Tebow’s fire is the image of him getting in Brandon Spikes face after a big score- “Now the defense needs to go hold them!”- And in charging into the kickoff coverage team’s huddle after another big play. Bobby Bowden called him Bronko Nagurski, playing quarterback. This quarterback is a true leader of his offense, of his teammates, and of men.
I can’t say I expected this before the season, but I think Tim Tebow deserves MORE credit than his getting, nationally, for the season he’s had. It’s easy to say he’s overhyped, overpublicized by ESPN, etc., etc. But just looking at the facts makes him the logical choice for Heisman. Which probably won’t happen because of our infatuation with the new and different, and the Heisman electorate’s unwillingness to crown another two-time winner. Which is a shame, because I think it may be realistic, at this point, to begin thinking about the world having it’s first three-time Heisman winner.
In writing this blog, I came across an excellent statistical breakdown of the defenses faced by all 3 QBs. Many thanks to Gator Clause for the data.
|
|
Last Updated ( Sunday, 14 December 2008 )
|
Discuss (16 posts)
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 11 2008 06:59:49
I have been saying no all year... Today I say it is a definite maybe!
|
#900 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 11 2008 07:01:11
I don't think so sir. Can you think of a better name for a Texan or Heisman trophy winner than Colt McCoy?
|
#901 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 11 2008 18:09:47
hm. I think it will come down to Bradford and Tebow. But, what I also think is the BIG 12 votes are going to be half for Bradford and half for McCoy. I think having 2 from the BIG 12 is going to hurt them. Tebow is gonna slide up the middle and take it from them! 
|
#904 |
|
Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 11 2008 18:33:43
Tebow is leading at StiffArmTrophy.com in 1st place votes, but is projected 3rd.
In a sort of related note, I thought Grossman received a little love when ESPN called Eric Crouch the worst-ever Heisman winner. link
|
#907 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 12 2008 01:46:47
hm. I say that would be a tie. Don't forget about Chris Weinke or Jason White...I don't think they were that good either. JMO.
|
#913 |
|
Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 14 2008 00:38:01
Tonight. 8:00 baby.
|
#940 |
|
Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 14 2008 06:10:44
It's ok everyone, Timmy will now have one more reason to destroy Oklahoma!!!
|
#945 |
|
Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 14 2008 19:48:09
The only reason OU has put up 60 or so points over the stretch is that they leave their first team offense and defense in the whole game. How many games were the Gators up by 35 by half or early in the third quarter at which point they pulled Tebow and most of the 1st team O & D? Just to finish the math implied by James, if Tebow had Bradford's number of attempts he would have had 4141 yds, 45 TDs and only 3 INTs. Not to mention Tebow's 540 yds and 12 TDs rushing compared to Bradfords 64 yds and 5 TDs. Just goes to show that no matter what people say about "class," running up the score really gets you into the Big 12 and BCS title games and gets your QB the Heisman.
|
#956 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 14 2008 20:02:02
I agree. This point hadn't been made ANYWHERE on any TV analysis. I was kinda disappointed by that. But, oh well, just another reason for Timmy to dominate on Jan 8th!
|
#959 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 14 2008 20:38:05
|
#961 |
|
Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 15 2008 15:45:15
A Tebow endorsement.
link.
Also, you can honestly say "more people thought Tim Tebow should win the Heisman than anyone else", which is true, because he got the most first place votes. It's also worth noting that his point total in the southwest (read: Texas) was the lowest of any finalist in any region. Sportswriters in this region completely left Tebow off, usually for Harrell or Crabtree, but, according the stiffarmtrophy.com, the one guy voted Brandon Spikes 3rd, which sounds like a statement of 'I'm leaving Tebow off on purpose'. I just think it's funny that the south is largely regarded as the most delusional and crazy part of the country by national media, then they seem to have the most fair assesment of other people's Heisman candidates (i.e. they may have voted Tebow a lot- no shame there, the man had the most 1st place votes- but they still voted for Bradford. they didn't fill it out 1)Tebow 2)Knowshon Moreno 3) Eric Berry)
|
#999 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 15 2008 16:50:18
The voting breakdown.
link
|
#1006 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 16 2008 21:00:56
Joe C wrote:
QUOTE:
WSJ writer atleast understands the true meaning of the Heisman trophy:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122913143033303459.html
I love how the writer refers to him as "Mr Tebow" the whole article
|
#1186 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 16 2008 21:39:57
Fink wrote:
QUOTE:
I love how the writer refers to him as "Mr Tebow" the whole article
Mav just calls him 'Daddy'
|
#1199 |
|
Re:Tim Tebow, Repeat Heisman Winner?
Dec 16 2008 21:46:02
goose wrote:
QUOTE:
Mav just calls him 'Daddy'
What joke?
|
#1202 |
Quick Post
|
|
