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FSU, then GA Again for the National Championship? |
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Written by Brian Lewis
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Tuesday, 20 November 2012 |
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The Gators odds of a National Championship just went from less than 1% to... pretty good, I'll calculate the odds (poorly) in a second. What happened? Undefeated teams are dropping like flies, and computers don't lie:
- K. State got murdered by Baylor, 24-52. As much as I wanted them to lose, it was so ugly I felt sincerely bad for them. Game over for K. State.
- Stanford knocked off Oregon 17-14 in overtime. Oregon still has a tough game at Oregon State, and a conference championship they can lose, but looks like the one loss will do it. Because...
- Gators are strong in the computer polls, and they will come out on top for 1-loss teams. Gators have the toughest schedule and the best loss. GA was a top-5 ranked loss. Gators killed the Cocks, who killed GA. Gators beat Texas A&M, who beat Bama. SEC, ranked win after ranked win. It speaks for itself, regardless of playing down against weak teams.
So all UF needs now is:
- Notre Dame to lose to USC. Not unlikely. Notre Dame is overrated, carrying all the pressure, and playing on the road. Notre Dame has had some close ones, and this is one of their toughest. USC redshirt freshman quarterback Max Wittek is pretty confident, he said, ''We're going to win this ballgame'' Plain and simple, he pretty much guarantees it. USC will play all-out with nothing to lose.
- And of course, Gators need to beat FSU - in Talley - with a QB injury. Not so easy. Well actually lets see. Driskel (6) has been reported that he will play, how much we don't know. Brissett (12) has done a great job filling the role so far, definitely clutch with a strong arm, maybe a little too relaxed. The O-line is back baby! Injuries on the O-line against USC, GA, and Mizzou weakened protection, ruined communication, and really hurt the run game. This time the only thing hurting the run game will be FSU's #1 in the country rush defense. But #1 against weak teams. Clemson, FSU's only ranked team, torched them. Gillislee (23) could do the same. Expect extra line men, like against LSU, especially with Driskel scrambling slow on the ankle injury. UF needs some ground game before passing can be effective. Offense will be tough both ways. Look for D to win the game. As always, regardless of how good UF and FSU are, it's going to be a tough game.
Odds on UF Championship (my odds, based on my breakdown):
- USC beats Notre Dame: 59%. Notre Dame is in for a problem. They are not sweet.
- Gators Beat FSU, for a decent bowl game: 42%. Would be a coin flip, even at Tallahassee. But less than 100% QB gives FSU the advantage.
- FSU and Notre Dame both lose, to put UF in an all-SEC BCS National Championship: 24.78%. Yes, I multiplied my made up percentages to two decimal place accuracy. Maybe lower if you count them voting someone else in over the Gators. But I don't think that will happen with a Seminole win also added to UF strength of schedule. This is really the only fair championship since the SEC is the only real conference.
- GA beats Bama, for a FL-GA rematch in the national championship. I give GA about 41% against Bama, so the Notre Dame / FSU / Bama losses combined come out to about: 10% for a FL-GA rematch. And this is what I'm betting on!
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 20 November 2012 )
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